2010 thoughts and projections: The second tier of pitching prospects

These 15 pitchers represent Nos. 16 through 30 on my preseason Top 100 list, which is gaining new content every week. Shuffling of that list is taking place quickly. Expect an update in the next couple of weeks.

Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay
2010 thoughts:
Davis holds down the No. 5 job in Tampa Bay’s rotation, but having Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings cannot be comforting. Davis will have to perform if he is going to hold his ground.
Average-year projection:
194 IP / 4.22 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 162 SO / 191 H / 73 BB
Prime-year projection:
205 IP / 3.75 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 180 SO / 194 H / 69 BB

Jordan Lyles / SP / Houston
2010 thoughts:
Lyles has taken the Double-A plunge much sooner than expected. Count on him remaining there for the rest of the year.

Matthew Moore / SP / Tampa Bay
2010 thoughts:
Moore is starting the year in Advanced-A Charlotte, but with success he will see Double-A Montgomery sometime later in the year.

Jason Knapp / SP / Cleveland
2010 thoughts:
Coming off an offseason shoulder surgery, Cleveland will play it safe with Knapp. He will stretch out in extended spring training and should see Single-A Lake County before too long. I don’t expect him to advance any further than Advanced-A Kinston.

Daniel Duffy / SP / Kansas City
2010 thoughts:
Duffy is walking away from the game for personal reasons. Whether it’s a temporary leave, no one knows. I don’t expect him back at all this season. He will drop from my Top 100 with the next update.

Michael Montgomery / SP / Kansas City
2010 thoughts:
Montgomery has started the year in Advanced-A Wilmington, but if his first two starts are any indication, he will be in Double-A Northwest Arkansas soon.

Alex White / SP / Cleveland
2010 thoughts:
White has debuted with Advanced-A Kinston, but he should move fast, finishing the year in Triple-A Columbus.

Julio Teheran / SP / Atlanta
2010 thoughts:
Due to Teheran’s age, I expect him to stay in Single-A Rome for the season.

Mike Leake / SP / Cincinnati
2010 thoughts:
Cincinnati has catapulted Leake all the way to the majors, despite his having never pitched a single minor league inning. The jump is too much. I honestly do not think Leake will hold up. Over the course of the year I expect him to spend more time in Triple-A Louisville than Cincinnati.

Aroldis Chapman / SP / Cincinnati
2010 thoughts:
Chapman is getting his feet wet in Triple-A Louisville, but Cincinnati seems to be determined to get him to the majors in a hurry. Even though he may not be deserving of a promotion, I expect him to get serious major league consideration by June.

Kyle Drabek / SP / Toronto
2010 thoughts:
Drabek should spend a majority of the year in Double-A New Hampshire, but should get a crack at Triple-A hitting as well.

Simon Castro / SP / San Diego
2010 thoughts:
Castro has bypassed Advanced-A and is getting his shot at the Texas League, where he will spend the entire year.

Jake Arrieta / SP/RP / Baltimore
2010 thoughts:
Arrieta is starting the year at Triple-A Norfolk, but a promotion to Baltimore is coming this summer, whether it’s as a starter or in a bullpen role.
Average-year projection:
189 IP / 4.38 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 12 W / 12 L / 161 SO / 188 H / 69 BB
Prime-year projection:
199 IP / 3.92 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 179 SO / 191 H / 65 BB

Mike Minor / SP / Atlanta
2010 thoughts:
Minor is in Double-A Mississippi now and should see some Triple-A time as well before the season is up.

Brandon Erbe / SP / Baltimore
2010 thoughts:
I was anticipating some more Double-A time for Erbe, but now that he is in Triple-A Norfolk I expect him to spend the entire year there.