2011 Tout Wars mixed: Team Carty

Last weekend, I traveled to MLBAM’s offices in New York to participate in Tout Wars. This is my second year in the Tout Wars mixed league, and I think I came away with a pretty good team. The setup is a 15-team, 5×5, roto-based mixed league with a $260 budget.

Tout Wars Mixed Roster

+-----+--------------------+-------+
| Pos | Player             | Price |
+-----+--------------------+-------+
| C   | Mike Napoli        | $20   |
| C   | Ryan Doumit        | $2    |
| 1B  | Luke Scott         | $3    |
| 2B  | Aaron Hill         | $13   |
| 3B  | Jose Bautista      | $27   |
| SS  | Tsuyoshi Nishioka  | $9    |
| CI  | Juan Uribe         | $9    |
| MI  | Ryan Theriot       | $9    |
| OF  | Mike Stanton       | $20   |
| OF  | Juan Pierre        | $16   |
| OF  | Vladimir Guerrero  | $16   |
| OF  | Adam Lind          | $13   |
| OF  | Bobby Abreu        | $10   |
| UT  | Denard Span        | $11   |
+-----+--------------------+-------+
| SP  | Colby Lewis        | $9    |
| SP  | Ted Lilly          | $9    |
| SP  | James Shields      | $7    |
| SP  | John Danks         | $6    |
| SP  | Ricky Nolasco      | $5    |
| CL  | Joe Nathan         | $11   |
| CL  | Jose Valverde      | $10   |
| CL  | Joel Hanrahan      | $13   |
| CL  | Frank Francisco    | $4    |
+-----+--------------------+-------+
| BN  | J.D. Drew          | --    |
| BN  | Phil Coke          | --    |
| BN  | Chris Capuano      | --    |
| BN  | Justin Duchscherer | --    |
+-----+--------------------+-------+

Thoughts

I think I did a pretty good job accomplishing what I wanted. I found last year that the top stars all went for a lot of money. Yes, they’re supposed to, but I feel like most cost $10 more than fair value. And since I don’t like paying fair value to begin with —I try to fill 80-90% of roster with players I consider bargains —these kinds of players just weren’t appealing to me.

Sure, you can get away with a stars and scrubs approach in a mixed league (Andy Behrens basically did stars and scrubs last year when he won the league), but I don’t think it’s necessary in order to win and think it’s actually sub-optimal.

I did end up leaving $9 on the table and, in retrospect, could have gotten another hitter in the $20s or a better second catcher. It’s always hard to judge an auction like this, though, especially when you see so much inflation early. You don’t want to overpsend too much in the early going, but you also don’t want to end up having money left over.

Facing inflation, my plan was to wait a while before buying too many players and eventually buying the guys I did get at big bargains, and I ended up doing that. Some came at much bigger bargains than expected, though, which left me with extra cash.

Juan Pierre, for example, went for $16 when other speedsters like Ichiro Suzuki ($25), Jacoby Ellsbury ($25), and Rajai Davis ($20) went for a lot more. I also saved on my closers, who I thought would be in the $12-$13 range, and on Colby Lewis and Ted Lilly, who I thought would be around $15 and $12. And my final pick, Frank Francisco, went for $4 when most closers went for double digits (even Brandon Lyon went for $13 just 20 minutes prior).

Concluding thoughts

That wraps things up for now. Let me know what you think of my team in the comments. Tomorrow, be on the lookout for an article comparing my team to Paul Singman’s team in the Yahoo! Friends & Family expert league, and be sure to vote for who’s team you think is better (hint: mine).

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Comments

  1. Derek Carty said...

    Thanks, Brad.  I didn’t expect it to have a standout player like a Pujols or a Braun because of how high they go, but I think I got some good bargains in the middle rounds and put together a very good, balanced team as a result.

  2. Chris R said...

    Very good roster for a deep league, with no glaring deficiencies.  Only Vlad at $16 seems like a reach to me, and there are plenty of value picks to hang your hat on.

  3. Brad Johnson said...

    Solid roster.

    It lacks for any single stand out player, but it still looks like a team that could finish 5th in a 12 team league so I’m guessing in the 15 team format it’s one of the deepest out there, even if it isn’t the most talented.

  4. Derek Ambrosino said...

    Looks like a nice squad to me.

    Yeah, that $9 would have helped with a better second catcher, or helped you to nicely upgrade your CI or MI. I don’t mind Theriot here in a 15-team league, but with your starting SS being a relative unknown, you don’t leave yourself much of contingency against bottoming out in those spots. It’s hard to predict these things in an auction too, though.

    I think there were a lot of value picks here. Luke Scott for $3 seesms like a steal. I also think that looks like a pretty damn good starting rotation for $36.

    You look like you’ll have saves and/or steals to trade too if you need to upgrade somewhere else along the way.

  5. Will Hatheway said...

    I think the league is shallow enough that you might have reached on a stud even if you thought he was greatly overpriced, because you only have so many slots and replacement value is relatively high, but on the flip side I think Abreau is a very nice value, and Lilly is sick (LOVE him).

    For what my opinion is worth…

  6. varmintito said...

    Incredible job getting such quality SP for so little money in a deep league.  My league is just a hair deeper, but I would be thrilled to even come close to replicating those results for SP. 

    I hope to I can get 2-3 of the pitchers you bought for similar bargain prices (I like all of them, but I’m almost certain I won’t be the only one and bidding wars are likely to ensu with at least a couple of them).  I’ll probably pay full retail for one pitcher in Hamels/Kershaw/Oswalt territory, and try to hit the lottery with the likes of Edwin Jackson, Wade Davis or Homer Bailey for $3 or less.

    As for the rest of you roster, Napoli and The Riot are a reach in my view, but $3 for Luke Scott and $4 for Frank Francisco look like profit centers.

    Good luck with Nishioka.  He is one of the biggest wild cards in the league this year.  If he hits north of 280 with 20 steals, he will be an asset.  If he hits 300 with 30 steals and 100 R, he will be a huge steal.  On the other hand, given the risks of projecting stats from Japan, it’s easy to envision him turning out as the Mets version of Kaz Matsui (I was surprised that Kaz adjusted to MLB and put together a couple of nice years toward the end of his career.

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