A-Rod in the clutch

The internet is a baseball fan’s best friend. One of my favorite sites at the moment is Fangraphs. Proprietor David Appelman has done a tremendous job over the last three years transforming the site from a cutesy WPA-based portal to a full-fledged statistical powershop.

Now he has live WPA for every game, play-by-play data for each player, MGL’s UZR, plate discipline stats, minor league stats, projections (courtesy of CHONE, Bill James, Oliver, ZiPS and Marcel) and a bushel of bloggers led by USSMariner’s inestimable Dave Cameron.

Enough bluster and brown-nosing—I want to use Fangraphs to analyze how Alex Rodriguez performed in the clutch last year. There is continuous noise that the Yankees slugger can hit for toffee when it counts. Fangraphs will tell us if that is true.

Measuring clutch

There are plenty of ways to measure clutch. The most oft-used definition is close and late—for instance, beyond the seventh inning in a one-run ballgame with a runner in scoring position. While that feels intuitively correct it is ultimately a subjective measure. In this day and age we deserve a more quantitative measure of clutch.

Fortunately it exists. It is called Leverage Index, or LI for short.

What is LI and how does it work?

In simple terms, it is the maximum change in win expectancy from a given at-bat divided by the average change in win expectancy over all situations (0.364). Take the highest LI possible which is 10.9—bottom of ninth, down by one, two outs, bases loaded. Before the event, win expectancy is 22 percent, and the maximum swing in LI is when the batter mashes one over the fences for a walk-off homer—a swing of 0.88. Divide that by the average swing in win expectancy (0.36) and we get 10.9.

For the inquisitive among you, Tom Tango wrote a great three-part series on LI for THT which you can find here, here and here.

My view is that Leverage Index IS the most accurate measure of clutchiness. It is also continuous. In other words, an LI of 1.8 is more clutch than an LI of 1.6 and so we can measure the difference in clutchiness between these two situations. Some people disagree with this view and set a boundary on high clutch situations by defining it as LI > 3. This accounts for 5 percent of PA, which feels about right—I can live with that but it’s still subjective. I’ve got an article in the pipe on using LI as a continuous measure of clutch.

A-Rod play-by-play

Below is a long list of every batting play for A-Rod in 2008 (from Fangraphs). Along with the date and pitcher faced we have Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, Win Expectancy, Win Probability Average and RE24 (run expectancy above average). I’ve omitted the play-by-play description of each event but you can work out whether A-Rod made an out by the direction of WPA or RE24 in the table. The table is ordered by descending LI. (Press page down about six times to get to the end.)

Date       Pitcher       LI         RE         WE         WPA        RE24
Aug-15     J  Soria      6.76       0.46       17.80%     0.102      0.34
Aug-30     B  Ryan       6.01       1.55       53.20%     -0.383     -1.21
03-Sep     S  Shields    4.46       1.62       77.50%     0.141      1
Aug-16     J  Peralta    4.28       0.95       71.40%     -0.072     -0.43
12-Sep     J  Papelbon   4.03       0.47       24.70%     -0.107     -0.47
04-Sep     M  Delcarmen  3.88       0.8        17.70%     -0.102     -0.8
Aug-15     L  Nunez      3.81       1.23       51.10%     0.032      0.02
May-27     G  Sherrill   3.71       0.36       45.50%     0.013      0.13
09-Sep     J  Soria      3.56       0.54       21.30%     0.135      0.39
Jun-30     C  Wilson     3.56       0.54       21.30%     -0.093     -0.25
01-Sep     F  Rodriguez  3.56       0.54       21.30%     -0.093     -0.25
02-Sep     J  Accardo    3.55       1.55       19.20%     -0.083     -0.6
Apr-28     A  Laffey     3.47       2.39       47.20%     0.13       1
07-Sep     Y  Yabuta     3.46       0.46       59.10%     -0.091     -0.46
Jul-29     G  Sherrill   3.46       2.04       22.60%     -0.086     -0.59
06-Sep     R  Mahay      3.35       0.56       32.30%     -0.082     -0.31
Aug-22     J  Walker     3.32       1          35.90%     0.23       1.1
12-Sep     J  Blanton    3.32       1.4        48.00%     0.126      0.85
12-Sep     J  Litsch     3.32       0.73       41.70%     0.193      1.68
May-31     D  Reyes      3.27       0.69       55.80%     -0.163     -0.58
Apr-26     J  Lewis      3.19       0.95       55.90%     -0.074     -0.5
Sep-20     J  Miller     3.18       1.55       82.10%     0.006      -0.33
Jul-19     J  Blevins    3.16       0.71       70.40%     0.01       0.24
Jul-19     L  DiNardo    3.16       0.71       70.40%     0.01       0.24
May-22     J  Johnson    3.16       0.93       71.80%     -0.078     -0.38
Aug-26     J  Masterson  3.08       1.62       18.00%     -0.142     -1.62
01-Sep     N  Blackburn  3.06       1.59       40.10%     -0.084     -0.81
May-31     D  Reyes      3.05       0.53       50.00%     0.058      0.16
10-Sep     P  Maholm     2.92       0.45       48.70%     -0.076     -0.45
02-Sep     J  Nathan     2.88       0.51       16.50%     0.115      0.39
02-Sep     D  Reyes      2.83       1.51       64.50%     0.064      0.35
May-27     M  Albers     2.83       2.45       82.70%     -0.36      -1.96
Aug-28     J  Lester     2.83       1.23       36.70%     -0.099     -0.7
Aug-13     J  Crain      2.79       0.51       13.80%     -0.078     -0.51
Aug-19     B  Ryan       2.78       0.44       14.90%     -0.068     -0.21
May-25     J  Putz       2.73       1.17       28.30%     0.092      0.38
Jun-29     B  Wagner     2.66       1.12       16.20%     -0.067     -0.44
05-Sep     S  Downs      2.64       0.71       41.20%     -0.066     -0.33
Aug-16     Z  Greinke    2.63       2.39       64.40%     -0.084     -0.77
10-Sep     J  Arredondo  2.58       0.69       54.30%     -0.126     -0.58
Jun-28     J  Santana    2.47       1.49       49.40%     0.095      0.85
02-Sep     W  Madrigal   2.47       1.17       50.20%     0.055      0.38
05-Sep     E  Guardado   2.4        0.68       10.80%     -0.108     -0.68
Aug-26     T  Wakefield  2.39       0.95       24.80%     -0.056     -0.5
Aug-16     R  Ramirez    2.38       0.56       61.10%     0.062      0.4
08-Sep     J  Garland    2.38       0.9        39.90%     -0.122     -0.79
12-Sep     J  Nathan     2.34       0.23       42.60%     -0.066     -0.23
09-Sep     L  Hochevar   2.32       1.17       32.90%     0.262      1.37
Aug-20     D  Purcey     2.31       2.26       67.10%     -0.068     -0.76
May-31     B  Bonser     2.31       0.61       40.00%     0.187      1.62
08-Sep     J  Weaver     2.31       0.61       40.00%     0.017      0.17
06-Sep     H  Okajima    2.3        0.54       64.50%     -0.06      -0.25
Sep-16     G  Floyd      2.29       0.46       28.80%     0.045      0.34
03-Sep     D  McGowan    2.28       2.04       64.00%     -0.087     -0.59
04-Sep     F  Francisco  2.18       0.69       29.50%     -0.061     -0.31
Jun-19     J  Banks      2.14       0.97       65.40%     0.084      0.59
Jun-21     D  Thompson   2.1        0.95       59.70%     -0.049     -0.5
05-Sep     J  Putz       2.09       0.68       9.40%      -0.057     -0.32
Sep-13     J  Howell     2.09       0.71       62.50%     -0.06      -0.37
03-Sep     J  Lackey     2.07       1.89       22.20%     0.064      0.5
Jul-27     J  Lester     2.03       2.41       18.90%     -0.053     -0.77
02-Sep     L  Mendoza    2.03       0.52       33.40%     0.03       0.28
Jul-30     D  Sarfate    2          0.95       49.10%     0.192      2.02
03-Sep     J  Arredondo  2          0.56       59.20%     0.055      0.4
10-Sep     D  Eveland    1.97       1.12       57.00%     0.025      0.17
Jul-20     J  Duchscherer1.97       1.23       62.80%     0.023      0.11
Jul-29     D  Cabrera    1.97       0.46       43.30%     0.036      0.34
Sep-14     E  Jackson    1.92       2.39       70.30%     0.155      2.15
May-30     G  Perkins    1.92       0.9        54.70%     0.157      1.24
10-Sep     D  Moseley    1.91       0.92       53.70%     -0.044     -0.48
Jun-25     Z  Duke       1.91       0.93       53.70%     0.058      0.66
03-Sep     D  McGowan    1.91       0.93       48.10%     -0.045     -0.38
May-22     B  Burres     1.91       0.93       48.10%     -0.045     -0.38
Apr-15     E  Jackson    1.89       0.88       42.10%     0.135      1.1
02-Sep     L  Hernandez  1.89       0.95       56.50%     -0.08      -0.58
Aug-17     B  Bannister  1.89       0.95       31.20%     0.215      2.33
Apr-14     G  Glover     1.87       0.5        74.90%     -0.052     -0.5
Aug-16     R  Tejeda     1.86       0.29       58.50%     -0.047     -0.17
04-Sep     J  Beckett    1.86       0.95       58.50%     0.177      2.02
09-Sep     E  Jackson    1.86       0.95       58.50%     -0.037     -0.43
01-Sep     E  Santana    1.86       0.95       58.50%     -0.043     -0.5
Aug-28     J  Lester     1.86       0.95       58.50%     -0.043     -0.5
Sep-16     G  Floyd      1.86       0.95       58.50%     -0.043     -0.5
Jul-25     J  Beckett    1.86       0.97       53.60%     -0.044     -0.5
Apr-13     D  Matsuzaka  1.86       0.97       53.60%     -0.086     -0.97
10-Sep     J  Saunders   1.86       0.37       48.40%     -0.051     -0.37
Apr-15     J  Howell     1.85       0.77       83.20%     -0.047     -0.77
01-Sep     E  Santana    1.85       0.34       55.30%     0.012      0.12
01-Sep     J  Verlander  1.83       2.46       64.80%     0.111      1.5
Sep-19     R  Liz        1.83       0.46       54.80%     -0.048     -0.46
Jul-19     B  Ziegler    1.82       0.25       55.20%     -0.052     -0.25
12-Sep     M  Guerrier   1.82       0.27       44.00%     0.378      1
May-31     D  Reyes      1.82       0.27       44.00%     0.06       0.26
03-Sep     J  Lester     1.8        1.23       42.30%     -0.066     -0.7
12-Sep     B  Bonser     1.79       0.44       63.10%     -0.046     -0.44
03-Sep     R  Halladay   1.78       0.56       42.50%     -0.044     -0.31
08-Sep     J  Garland    1.78       1.2        56.40%     0.066      0.73
Apr-18     D  Cabrera    1.75       0.6        50.10%     0.023      0.15
May-26     G  Olson      1.75       0.6        50.10%     0.023      0.15
11-Sep     J  Duchscherer1.74       0.46       62.60%     -0.046     -0.46
02-Sep     M  Garza      1.74       0.94       43.10%     0.028      0.24
05-Sep     J  Masterson  1.73       0.95       70.00%     0.051      0.67
Apr-28     A  Laffey     1.72       1.23       56.20%     -0.063     -0.7
Apr-15     E  Jackson    1.72       0.94       55.80%     0.045      0.32
06-Sep     K  Davies     1.72       1.23       61.20%     -0.112     -1.23
May-28     J  Johnson    1.7        0.4        71.10%     -0.049     -0.4
Jun-27     M  Pelfrey    1.7        1.23       74.50%     -0.054     -0.6
Jun-22     J  Cueto      1.69       0.93       60.30%     -0.04      -0.38
01-Sep     E  Santana    1.69       0.93       60.30%     -0.04      -0.38
01-Sep     R  Halladay   1.69       0.93       60.30%     -0.09      -0.82
06-Sep     R  Corcoran   1.66       0.94       75.70%     0.014      0.24
05-Sep     B  Ryan       1.64       0.25       4.90%      0.002      0.09
08-Sep     B  Bannister  1.64       0.87       54.00%     -0.038     -0.36
Aug-13     K  Slowey     1.64       0.53       22.40%     -0.04      -0.3
11-Sep     G  Perkins    1.64       0.53       22.40%     -0.07      -0.53
07-Sep     J  Hammel     1.64       0.52       66.60%     -0.047     -0.52
07-Sep     R  Feierabend 1.64       0.32       33.50%     0.015      0.11
05-Sep     D  McGowan    1.63       1.45       20.50%     -0.025     -0.07
06-Sep     R  Rowland-Smi1.62       0.43       60.90%     0.028      0.33
08-Sep     R  Mahay      1.61       1.23       84.30%     0.085      0.89
Jun-20     E  Volquez    1.6        0.93       48.70%     0.025      0.24
Apr-27     C  Sabathia   1.59       0.97       71.00%     -0.069     -0.59
May-31     B  Bonser     1.59       0.33       47.80%     -0.045     -0.33
Aug-16     Z  Greinke    1.58       0.54       22.90%     0.099      0.63
06-Sep     T  Wakefield  1.58       0.54       22.90%     0.068      0.39
Apr-25     R  Betancourt 1.57       0.54       8.00%      -0.041     -0.25
01-Sep     J  Rupe       1.56       0.54       40.40%     -0.041     -0.25
May-27     D  Sarfate    1.56       0.59       50.00%     -0.042     -0.27
Jul-25     J  Beckett    1.55       0.95       68.90%     0.029      0.24
02-Sep     L  Hernandez  1.54       0.51       50.00%     0.108      0.63
Aug-22     R  Liz        1.54       1.62       66.60%     -0.091     -1.22
01-Sep     R  Halladay   1.52       0.54       59.10%     0.056      0.39
Sep-20     B  Burres     1.52       0.54       59.10%     0.056      0.39
01-Sep     B  Bass       1.51       0.53       25.10%     -0.036     -0.3
03-Sep     J  Lackey     1.51       1.89       18.70%     -0.047     -0.66
12-Sep     N  Blackburn  1.51       0.53       37.90%     -0.036     -0.3
Sep-16     G  Floyd      1.51       0.38       54.20%     -0.042     -0.38
Apr-26     J  Sowers     1.5        0.93       23.10%     0.061      0.62
01-Sep     J  Rupe       1.49       0.25       54.30%     -0.043     -0.25
Jun-27     P  Martinez   1.49       1.12       57.40%     0.035      0.37
May-25     J  Washburn   1.48       0.25       35.60%     0.017      0.09
Sep-19     L  Cormier    1.48       0.46       77.70%     -0.039     -0.46
Jun-27     M  Pelfrey    1.47       0.97       38.10%     0.063      0.59
Jun-30     S  Feldman    1.47       0.93       58.90%     0.025      0.24
10-Sep     J  Bale       1.46       1.18       81.00%     0.019      0.05
Sep-28     D  Matsuzaka  1.46       0.73       52.00%     0.023      0.24
Aug-15     G  Meche      1.46       0.71       46.20%     -0.042     -0.37
05-Sep     M  Harrison   1.45       1.11       26.30%     -0.082     -0.96
Jun-29     O  Perez      1.45       0.68       28.70%     -0.04      -0.36
Sep-17     C  Richard    1.43       0.29       32.30%     0.054      0.27
Apr-20     S  Trachsel   1.43       0.76       51.90%     0.11       1
Aug-24     D  Cabrera    1.43       1.27       76.40%     0.022      0.4
09-Sep     J  Howell     1.43       0.29       56.40%     -0.036     -0.17
09-Sep     E  Santana    1.42       1.86       79.30%     0.125      1.65
Sep-13     M  Garza      1.42       1.45       63.10%     -0.002     -0.11
Jun-19     J  Banks      1.42       1.45       63.10%     -0.074     -0.82
Sep-20     B  Burres     1.42       0.56       56.40%     0.041      0.4
Aug-26     T  Wakefield  1.42       0.56       44.40%     -0.063     -0.56
Apr-18     D  Cabrera    1.41       0.6        50.10%     -0.025     -0.24
Jul-19     S  Gallagher  1.4        0.63       74.90%     -0.042     -0.63
10-Sep     J  Arredondo  1.4        0.27       45.30%     0.09       0.42
07-Sep     S  Feldman    1.4        1.11       63.70%     -0.083     -0.96
Jul-29     D  Cabrera    1.4        0.54       26.80%     0.135      1
04-Sep     A  Sonnanstine1.4        0.54       26.80%     -0.036     -0.25
09-Sep     E  Jackson    1.4        0.38       69.40%     -0.039     -0.38
12-Sep     J  Beckett    1.38       0.56       19.60%     0.059      0.4
Aug-24     R  Cherry     1.36       0.76       74.60%     0.016      0.25
10-Sep     J  Saunders   1.36       1.86       70.70%     0.082      1.14
May-31     J  Rincon     1.35       0.92       86.00%     -0.025     -0.42
Sep-13     M  Garza      1.35       0.54       42.20%     -0.035     -0.25
Sep-17     C  Richard    1.35       0.54       42.20%     -0.035     -0.25
03-Sep     R  Halladay   1.34       0.38       43.70%     0.013      0.14
Jul-20     J  Duchscherer1.32       0.54       57.80%     -0.034     -0.25
10-Sep     C  Gaudin     1.32       0.81       79.60%     -0.03      -0.34
Aug-29     A  Burnett    1.3        0.93       76.90%     -0.071     -0.82
Aug-22     R  Liz        1.3        0.6        50.10%     -0.033     -0.34
Jul-19     S  Gallagher  1.3        0.95       80.60%     -0.025     -0.43
Jun-14     W  Rodriguez  1.29       0.33       36.90%     0.013      0.12
01-Sep     K  Millwood   1.29       0.38       53.60%     -0.036     -0.38
Sep-20     B  Burres     1.29       0.38       53.60%     -0.036     -0.38
10-Sep     P  Maholm     1.29       0.33       48.10%     -0.037     -0.33
Jun-13     S  Chacon     1.28       0.37       48.70%     0.085      0.87
Jun-15     R  Oswalt     1.28       0.33       48.10%     0.011      0.12
Jun-28     J  Santana    1.28       0.52       66.40%     0.02       0.16
10-Sep     D  Eveland    1.28       0.3        64.00%     -0.035     -0.3
05-Sep     D  McGowan    1.28       1.23       80.70%     -0.047     -0.7
Jun-20     F  Cordero    1.27       0.29       4.90%      -0.033     -0.17
09-Sep     J  Lackey     1.27       0.51       81.60%     -0.036     -0.51
07-Sep     B  Bannister  1.27       0.38       34.30%     0.014      0.14
Jul-26     T  Wakefield  1.26       0.39       48.60%     -0.036     -0.39
Apr-16     J  Tavarez    1.26       0.54       29.70%     -0.033     -0.25
Apr-19     B  Burres     1.24       0.36       37.50%     -0.037     -0.36
Jun-20     E  Volquez    1.24       0.34       42.70%     0.004      0.04
Aug-19     A  Burnett    1.24       1.05       69.90%     -0.042     -0.42
10-Sep     P  Maholm     1.24       0.52       22.10%     -0.032     -0.24
Apr-19     B  Burres     1.23       0.4        48.50%     0.013      0.15
Aug-19     A  Burnett    1.23       0.48       67.90%     -0.028     -0.27
Jul-18     G  Smith      1.22       0.56       45.40%     0.037      0.4
08-Sep     R  Ramirez    1.21       0.51       10.40%     -0.029     -0.29
May-30     G  Perkins    1.2        0.69       51.80%     -0.034     -0.36
03-Sep     E  Jackson    1.2        0.68       63.30%     0.098      1
Sep-19     R  Liz        1.2        0.34       68.90%     0.008      0.12
05-Sep     J  Masterson  1.2        0.34       68.90%     0.005      0.04
Jun-28     D  Sanchez    1.19       0.52       74.90%     0.02       0.16
05-Sep     M  Harrison   1.19       0.68       33.20%     0.012      0.15
Aug-27     P  Byrd       1.18       0.54       43.40%     0.078      0.63
May-30     G  Perkins    1.17       1.44       28.30%     0.045      0.46
12-Sep     J  Blanton    1.16       0.3        48.60%     0.01       0.11
05-Sep     D  McGowan    1.16       0.97       68.30%     0.018      0.14
11-Sep     R  Halladay   1.16       0.3        48.60%     -0.032     -0.3
Aug-21     R  Halladay   1.16       0.3        48.60%     -0.032     -0.3
Aug-29     A  Burnett    1.16       0.71       70.10%     0.044      0.51
May-25     J  Washburn   1.16       0.29       36.30%     0.044      0.27
Jun-30     S  Feldman    1.16       0.29       36.30%     -0.029     -0.17
Jul-30     D  Sarfate    1.16       0.38       63.30%     0.068      0.73
04-Sep     A  Sonnanstine1.15       0.34       43.30%     -0.033     -0.34
Aug-31     R  Halladay   1.15       0.34       17.70%     -0.034     -0.34
Apr-13     D  Matsuzaka  1.15       0.35       27.60%     -0.034     -0.35
10-Sep     P  Maholm     1.15       0.54       50.20%     -0.028     -0.3
Jul-19     S  Gallagher  1.15       0.56       55.10%     -0.028     -0.31
Sep-26     D  Pauley     1.14       1.19       66.40%     -0.041     -0.46
10-Sep     J  Saunders   1.14       0.51       37.70%     0.046      0.39
May-25     J  Washburn   1.14       0.54       31.80%     -0.03      -0.25
01-Sep     K  Millwood   1.14       0.54       31.80%     -0.03      -0.25
03-Sep     S  Downs      1.13       0.95       88.30%     -0.026     -0.5
Jun-19     J  Hampson    1.13       0.56       73.80%     0.017      0.15
Jul-22     D  Reyes      1.13       0.56       73.80%     0.017      0.15
Jul-19     A  Embree     1.13       0.56       73.80%     -0.017     -0.22
Jun-22     G  Majewski   1.13       0.56       73.80%     -0.028     -0.31
May-28     J  Guthrie    1.12       0.59       38.80%     -0.03      -0.27
06-Sep     J  Shields    1.12       0.46       80.20%     0.018      0.34
03-Sep     E  Jackson    1.12       0.32       48.40%     -0.032     -0.32
Jun-25     Z  Duke       1.12       0.96       75.00%     -0.048     -0.59
Apr-20     S  Trachsel   1.12       1          78.80%     -0.027     -0.39
06-Sep     T  Hunter     1.12       0.4        57.00%     -0.035     -0.4
02-Sep     L  Hernandez  1.11       0.33       48.40%     0.174      1.78
Aug-30     J  Parrish    1.11       0.34       53.20%     0.089      0.91
Aug-15     G  Meche      1.11       0.34       53.20%     0.01       0.12
May-21     G  Olson      1.11       0.34       53.20%     -0.032     -0.34
09-Sep     L  Hochevar   1.11       0.34       53.20%     -0.032     -0.34
Sep-15     M  Buehrle    1.11       0.34       53.20%     -0.032     -0.34
Jun-24     T  Gorzelanny 1.11       0.33       48.30%     -0.032     -0.33
Aug-19     A  Burnett    1.11       0.63       62.40%     -0.03      -0.33
Jun-21     D  Thompson   1.11       0.25       53.20%     -0.032     -0.25
Aug-15     G  Meche      1.11       0.25       25.90%     -0.032     -0.25
Aug-27     P  Byrd       1.11       0.25       25.90%     -0.032     -0.25
Aug-22     D  Sarfate    1.1        0.27       46.20%     -0.033     -0.27
03-Sep     J  Lackey     1.1        0.34       33.90%     -0.032     -0.34
Sep-26     D  Pauley     1.09       0.35       48.20%     0.085      0.91
Jul-27     J  Lester     1.09       0.35       48.20%     -0.032     -0.35
Sep-13     M  Garza      1.08       0.56       66.80%     0.032      0.4
Apr-25     P  Byrd       1.08       0.54       50.00%     -0.028     -0.25
Apr-27     C  Sabathia   1.08       0.54       50.00%     -0.028     -0.25
06-Sep     W  Madrigal   1.07       1.35       83.50%     -0.08      -1.35
Apr-20     S  Trachsel   1.07       0.36       48.10%     -0.032     -0.36
May-26     G  Olson      1.07       0.36       48.10%     -0.032     -0.36
04-Sep     J  Beckett    1.07       0.54       56.20%     0.042      0.39
Aug-28     J  Lester     1.07       0.54       56.20%     -0.028     -0.25
Aug-30     B  Tallet     1.06       1.55       86.40%     -0.033     -0.6
Aug-28     J  Masterson  1.06       0.11       52.80%     -0.028     -0.11
12-Sep     N  Blackburn  1.05       0.53       59.90%     -0.025     -0.3
11-Sep     G  Perkins    1.04       0.51       27.00%     0.044      0.39
Jul-13     A  Burnett    1.04       1.05       14.60%     -0.03      -0.42
May-28     J  Guthrie    1.04       0.59       64.50%     -0.028     -0.27
Aug-23     J  Guthrie    1.04       0.59       64.50%     -0.028     -0.27
Jun-18     J  Peavy      1.04       0.71       65.90%     -0.03      -0.37
05-Sep     B  Morrow     1.03       0.23       34.10%     -0.029     -0.23
Jun-17     R  Wolf       1.01       0.38       75.20%     -0.028     -0.38
Apr-18     D  Cabrera    1.01       0.32       46.40%     0.037      0.28
May-26     G  Olson      1.01       0.32       46.40%     0.037      0.28
Aug-24     D  Sarfate    1.01       0.32       46.40%     0.037      0.28
07-Sep     J  Wright     1.01       1.08       86.10%     -0.048     -0.64
Jul-25     J  Beckett    1.01       0.56       65.10%     0.039      0.4
May-30     B  Bass       1.01       1.44       80.10%     0.025      0.43
01-Sep     F  Dolsi      1          0.84       90.60%     -0.027     -0.84
01-Sep     S  Downs      1          0.38       85.70%     0.005      0.14
Sep-15     M  Buehrle    0.99       0.29       54.30%     -0.025     -0.17
Jun-20     E  Volquez    0.99       0.54       44.70%     0.04       0.39
Sep-21     C  Waters     0.99       0.54       44.70%     0.04       0.39
May-24     C  Silva      0.99       0.54       55.70%     -0.026     -0.25
02-Sep     A  Burnett    0.99       0.54       44.70%     -0.026     -0.25
Apr-17     J  Beckett    0.99       0.54       44.70%     -0.026     -0.25
Aug-16     Z  Greinke    0.99       0.54       44.70%     -0.026     -0.25
May-27     B  Burres     0.99       0.59       50.00%     -0.027     -0.27
09-Sep     J  Lackey     0.98       0.27       46.60%     0.169      1
Apr-13     D  Aardsma    0.98       0.56       11.60%     -0.026     -0.26
Jul-21     N  Blackburn  0.98       0.52       81.60%     0.054      0.93
08-Sep     B  Bannister  0.97       0.49       39.30%     -0.024     -0.23
02-Sep     J  Weaver     0.97       0.54       34.80%     -0.025     -0.25
Sep-19     R  Liz        0.97       0.54       34.80%     -0.025     -0.25
10-Sep     F  Rodriguez  0.97       0.27       3.60%      -0.025     -0.17
May-31     B  Bonser     0.97       0.51       39.60%     -0.025     -0.24
06-Sep     R  Rowland-Smi0.96       0.49       66.40%     -0.024     -0.23
07-Sep     B  Tomko      0.95       0.56       7.80%      0.11       1.73
Jul-23     G  Perkins    0.94       1.55       89.10%     0.078      1.92
09-Sep     E  Santana    0.93       0.51       50.00%     0.037      0.39
Sep-23     J  Litsch     0.93       0.44       50.00%     -0.023     -0.21
09-Sep     Z  Greinke    0.93       0.49       50.00%     -0.023     -0.23
05-Sep     B  Morrow     0.93       0.49       50.00%     -0.023     -0.23
Apr-15     E  Jackson    0.93       0.5        50.00%     -0.024     -0.23
02-Sep     M  Garza      0.93       0.5        50.00%     -0.024     -0.23
09-Sep     J  Lackey     0.93       0.51       50.00%     -0.024     -0.24
11-Sep     C  Buchholz   0.93       0.56       50.00%     -0.024     -0.26
12-Sep     J  Beckett    0.93       0.56       50.00%     -0.024     -0.26
Sep-28     D  Matsuzaka  0.93       0.56       50.00%     -0.024     -0.26
May-28     J  Guthrie    0.93       0.59       50.00%     -0.025     -0.27
06-Sep     T  Hunter     0.93       0.69       50.00%     -0.026     -0.31
Jun-29     O  Perez      0.92       0.5        10.40%     -0.024     -0.24
Jun-17     R  Wolf       0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.102      1
06-Sep     T  Wakefield  0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.102      1
08-Sep     J  Weaver     0.92       0.51       30.20%     0.095      1
Jun-21     D  Thompson   0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.061      0.63
Jul-22     K  Slowey     0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.061      0.63
May-24     C  Silva      0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.036      0.39
May-25     J  Washburn   0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.036      0.39
Jun-30     S  Feldman    0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.036      0.39
02-Sep     L  Mendoza    0.92       0.54       55.30%     0.036      0.39
05-Sep     M  Harrison   0.92       0.69       33.30%     0.035      0.42
03-Sep     D  McGowan    0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
06-Sep     J  Shields    0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
May-22     B  Burres     0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
05-Sep     J  Masterson  0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
08-Sep     S  Kazmir     0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
Jul-23     G  Perkins    0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
Jul-31     J  Garland    0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
Aug-29     A  Burnett    0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
Sep-17     C  Richard    0.92       0.54       55.30%     -0.024     -0.25
Jul-26     T  Wakefield  0.92       0.25       36.20%     0.042      0.39
Sep-21     C  Waters     0.92       0.93       83.10%     -0.022     -0.38
Jul-25     J  Beckett    0.91       0.25       46.90%     0.029      0.28
May-26     G  Olson      0.91       0.27       46.80%     0.021      0.22
08-Sep     B  Bannister  0.91       0.26       32.50%     -0.022     -0.16
09-Sep     E  Santana    0.9        0.51       62.30%     -0.023     -0.24
Aug-13     K  Slowey     0.9        0.51       62.40%     -0.023     -0.24
Jun-24     T  Gorzelanny 0.89       0.52       18.70%     -0.023     -0.24
07-Sep     J  Peralta    0.88       0.29       53.80%     -0.022     -0.17
Apr-25     P  Byrd       0.87       0.29       19.50%     -0.022     -0.17
Sep-23     J  Litsch     0.87       0.44       63.60%     -0.021     -0.21
04-Sep     J  Beckett    0.87       0.25       16.90%     -0.025     -0.25
10-Sep     D  Eveland    0.87       0.47       73.30%     0.026      0.37
02-Sep     A  Burnett    0.87       0.93       6.30%      0.072      1.61
Jun-19     J  Banks      0.86       0.29       40.30%     -0.022     -0.17
07-Sep     J  Hammel     0.86       1.47       82.90%     0.033      0.47
11-Sep     R  Halladay   0.85       0.44       9.00%      -0.021     -0.21
04-Sep     J  Litsch     0.84       0.54       68.30%     -0.022     -0.25
Aug-30     J  Parrish    0.84       0.56       76.20%     -0.021     -0.31
04-Sep     V  Padilla    0.83       0.3        56.10%     -0.026     -0.3
08-Sep     Z  Greinke    0.83       0.56       73.00%     0.012      0.15
Apr-17     J  Beckett    0.83       0.34       11.10%     -0.024     -0.34
07-Sep     S  Feldman    0.82       0.69       74.00%     -0.023     -0.31
Jun-27     M  Pelfrey    0.82       0.25       42.40%     0.027      0.28
Jul-29     D  Cabrera    0.82       0.25       42.40%     0.027      0.28
05-Sep     J  Masterson  0.82       0.25       67.80%     0.011      0.09
Jun-14     W  Rodriguez  0.81       0.52       22.40%     0.08       1
Jun-30     S  Feldman    0.81       0.29       28.90%     0.114      1
12-Sep     J  Crain      0.81       0.53       81.70%     -0.036     -0.53
Aug-27     P  Byrd       0.8        0.25       33.10%     0.102      1.09
10-Sep     D  Moseley    0.8        0.23       58.60%     -0.023     -0.23
May-31     B  Bonser     0.8        0.23       58.70%     0.01       0.09
11-Sep     J  Duchscherer0.8        0.21       47.60%     -0.022     -0.21
12-Sep     J  Blanton    0.8        0.23       33.50%     0.032      0.24
Aug-31     R  Halladay   0.8        0.54       15.20%     0.072      1
07-Sep     B  Bannister  0.8        0.54       15.20%     0.034      0.39
Jun-24     T  Yates      0.8        0.69       6.70%      -0.022     -0.36
04-Sep     S  Kazmir     0.79       0.23       47.50%     0.01       0.09
Jul-21     N  Blackburn  0.79       0.25       52.30%     0.178      1.87
01-Sep     R  Halladay   0.79       0.25       52.30%     0.106      1.09
05-Sep     E  Jackson    0.79       0.25       52.30%     0.106      1.09
Aug-23     J  Guthrie    0.79       0.27       47.20%     0.103      1.14
11-Sep     G  Perkins    0.79       0.23       47.40%     0.026      0.27
01-Sep     N  Blackburn  0.79       0.23       47.40%     0.019      0.21
Apr-27     C  Sabathia   0.79       0.25       47.30%     0.019      0.21
Aug-24     D  Cabrera    0.79       0.27       47.20%     0.019      0.22
Jun-27     P  Martinez   0.79       0.23       47.40%     -0.022     -0.23
Jun-28     J  Santana    0.79       0.23       47.40%     -0.022     -0.23
Jun-15     R  Oswalt     0.79       0.24       47.40%     -0.023     -0.24
Apr-25     P  Byrd       0.79       0.25       47.30%     -0.023     -0.25
Apr-26     J  Sowers     0.79       0.25       47.30%     -0.023     -0.25
04-Sep     J  Litsch     0.79       0.25       52.30%     -0.023     -0.25
Jun-22     J  Cueto      0.79       0.25       52.30%     -0.023     -0.25
Apr-18     D  Cabrera    0.79       0.27       47.20%     -0.023     -0.27
May-27     B  Burres     0.79       0.27       47.20%     -0.023     -0.27
Apr-28     A  Laffey     0.79       0.29       47.20%     -0.02      -0.17
06-Sep     J  Shields    0.79       0.29       53.40%     0.049      0.43
06-Sep     K  Davies     0.79       0.29       53.40%     0.03       0.27
Jun-20     E  Volquez    0.79       0.29       53.40%     -0.02      -0.17
04-Sep     V  Padilla    0.79       0.3        46.90%     0.018      0.23
Jun-18     B  Corey      0.79       0.56       80.90%     0.012      0.15
Aug-30     B  League     0.79       0.54       78.50%     -0.02      -0.25
05-Sep     E  Jackson    0.78       0.29       41.40%     -0.02      -0.17
Aug-22     F  Cabrera    0.77       0.27       79.20%     0.029      0.4
Apr-17     J  Beckett    0.77       0.56       10.10%     0.027      0.4
Jul-28     J  Guthrie    0.76       0.54       18.90%     -0.02      -0.25
Jul-13     A  Burnett    0.76       0.48       7.00%      0.029      0.37
Jul-25     M  Delcarmen  0.75       0.3        70.80%     -0.019     -0.18
Jun-20     E  Volquez    0.75       0.29       10.50%     0.033      0.27
06-Sep     W  Madrigal   0.73       1.34       86.90%     -0.008     -0.25
May-31     C  Breslow    0.73       0.27       66.80%     -0.018     -0.17
Jul-26     T  Wakefield  0.73       0.3        60.50%     0.027      0.28
03-Sep     C  Bradford   0.73       1.19       90.70%     0.026      0.73
03-Sep     R  Halladay   0.73       0.29       53.10%     0.028      0.27
Jul-18     G  Smith      0.73       0.29       53.10%     0.028      0.27
Aug-31     R  Halladay   0.73       0.25       24.90%     -0.021     -0.25
Apr-19     B  Burres     0.72       0.59       9.70%      -0.019     -0.27
08-Sep     J  Garland    0.72       0.27       47.50%     -0.018     -0.17
Sep-28     J  Lopez      0.72       0.35       81.50%     0.009      0.19
Jun-28     J  Santana    0.72       0.26       63.70%     0.027      0.26
Aug-30     J  Parrish    0.71       0.25       62.10%     0.008      0.09
05-Sep     T  Miller     0.71       0.93       4.00%      0.032      0.62
Aug-17     B  Bannister  0.7        1.89       88.10%     0.016      0.5
01-Sep     J  Verlander  0.7        1.52       86.20%     0.022      0.5
11-Sep     R  Halladay   0.69       0.23       22.60%     0.03       0.24
May-22     B  Burres     0.69       0.11       51.80%     -0.018     -0.11
Jun-28     D  Sanchez    0.68       0.26       72.50%     0.024      0.26
Jun-13     S  Chacon     0.68       0.28       59.80%     0.025      0.27
Aug-24     D  Cabrera    0.67       0.27       65.90%     -0.02      -0.27
11-Sep     C  Buchholz   0.67       0.12       43.90%     0.019      0.13
Jun-27     P  Martinez   0.67       1.85       90.50%     -0.029     -0.66
Jul-29     D  Cabrera    0.67       1.17       4.50%      0.027      0.38
Jun-13     S  Chacon     0.66       0.11       44.10%     -0.017     -0.11
Sep-16     M  Thornton   0.66       0.54       4.80%      -0.017     -0.25
Aug-20     D  Purcey     0.65       0.44       73.10%     -0.016     -0.21
Jul-22     K  Slowey     0.65       0.29       71.50%     0.023      0.27
07-Sep     R  Feierabend 0.65       0.23       69.70%     -0.018     -0.23
Apr-13     D  Matsuzaka  0.64       0.3        15.00%     -0.017     -0.18
Apr-26     J  Sowers     0.64       0.29       11.90%     0.028      0.27
Jul-28     J  Guthrie    0.64       0.25       12.80%     -0.019     -0.25
Jul-22     K  Slowey     0.63       0.29       66.10%     -0.016     -0.17
02-Sep     L  Hernandez  0.63       0.27       59.00%     0.024      0.26
08-Sep     S  Kazmir     0.62       0.54       78.20%     -0.016     -0.25
05-Sep     B  Ryan       0.61       0.11       1.60%      0.032      0.13
Jun-14     W  Wright     0.61       0.24       79.40%     0.019      0.28
Jun-18     J  Peavy      0.6        0.29       64.50%     0.099      1
Apr-18     R  Bierd      0.6        1.01       3.30%      -0.014     -0.52
06-Sep     K  Davies     0.6        0.11       20.70%     0.032      0.23
Sep-15     M  Buehrle    0.6        0.25       74.10%     -0.017     -0.25
10-Sep     H  Nomo       0.6        0.36       89.60%     0.004      0.14
Aug-23     L  Cormier    0.59       0.59       84.60%     -0.016     -0.27
08-Sep     Z  Greinke    0.59       0.11       51.60%     0.017      0.13
05-Sep     B  Morrow     0.58       0.26       7.80%      -0.015     -0.16
02-Sep     L  Mendoza    0.58       0.25       78.90%     0.013      0.21
Jun-14     G  Geary      0.57       0.37       92.00%     0.003      0.14
Jun-19     H  Bell       0.57       0.54       86.30%     -0.015     -0.25
Apr-16     C  Buchholz   0.55       0.29       62.40%     0.088      1
Sep-18     J  Vazquez    0.55       0.29       62.40%     0.021      0.27
Apr-27     M  Kobayashi  0.55       0.29       81.00%     -0.014     -0.17
12-Sep     J  Litsch     0.54       0.23       58.70%     -0.013     -0.14
05-Sep     E  Jackson    0.54       0.29       10.80%     -0.014     -0.17
Jul-27     J  Lester     0.53       0.56       8.80%      0.033      0.63
09-Sep     L  Hochevar   0.53       0.11       51.40%     -0.014     -0.11
Jul-23     G  Perkins    0.53       0.11       51.40%     -0.014     -0.11
Jun-14     W  Rodriguez  0.53       0.28       73.10%     -0.013     -0.17
Jun-18     C  Meredith   0.52       1.17       91.40%     0.034      0.76
Sep-21     L  Cormier    0.52       1.17       91.40%     -0.003     -0.2
11-Sep     C  Buchholz   0.52       0.12       45.10%     -0.014     -0.12
12-Sep     J  Beckett    0.52       0.12       45.10%     -0.014     -0.12
May-30     M  Guerrier   0.51       0.27       81.80%     0.033      0.42
09-Sep     J  Lackey     0.51       0.11       45.30%     0.015      0.13
09-Sep     Z  Greinke    0.51       0.1        45.40%     0.028      0.22
Apr-15     G  Glover     0.51       1.49       95.30%     -0.016     -0.58
May-23     E  Bedard     0.51       1.89       93.20%     -0.015     -0.44
07-Sep     M  Batista    0.51       0.1        7.20%      -0.013     -0.1
Sep-13     C  Bradford   0.5        0.46       93.40%     -0.013     -0.46
10-Sep     K  Jepsen     0.5        0.11       16.70%     -0.013     -0.11
04-Sep     S  Kazmir     0.5        0.5        3.50%      -0.014     -0.5
08-Sep     Z  Greinke    0.5        0.11       39.40%     0.015      0.13
Jun-13     D  Brocail    0.49       0.11       70.00%     -0.013     -0.11
Apr-14     A  Sonnanstine0.49       0.23       78.40%     0.011      0.21
09-Sep     Z  Greinke    0.48       0.1        16.20%     -0.013     -0.1
Jul-26     J  Masterson  0.48       1.47       93.80%     0.022      0.77
Aug-23     J  Guthrie    0.48       0.13       35.10%     0.014      0.14
Jul-18     G  Smith      0.48       0.38       90.40%     0.033      0.87
07-Sep     S  Dohmann    0.48       0.95       94.70%     -0.011     -0.5
May-21     G  Olson      0.47       0.54       83.50%     0.055      1
Sep-18     J  Vazquez    0.47       0.29       74.40%     -0.012     -0.17
03-Sep     G  Balfour    0.47       0.52       89.80%     -0.016     -0.42
08-Sep     Z  Greinke    0.46       0.29       71.30%     0.017      0.27
07-Sep     J  Hammel     0.46       0.29       71.30%     -0.012     -0.17
10-Sep     J  Bale       0.46       0.1        45.70%     -0.012     -0.1
Apr-13     M  Delcarmen  0.45       0.3        1.60%      -0.012     -0.18
Jun-18     B  Corey      0.45       0.29       79.20%     0.016      0.27
05-Sep     J  Masterson  0.44       0.11       66.60%     0.012      0.13
05-Sep     M  Harrison   0.44       0.15       12.50%     -0.012     -0.15
04-Sep     V  Padilla    0.44       0.15       67.30%     -0.013     -0.15
Jul-20     A  Embree     0.44       0.29       84.80%     0.015      0.27
11-Sep     J  Lopez      0.43       0.3        83.80%     0.015      0.28
Sep-23     J  Litsch     0.43       0.23       78.50%     -0.01      -0.14
Apr-15     J  Howell     0.43       0.5        86.70%     -0.011     -0.23
May-24     C  Silva      0.42       0.11       64.50%     -0.011     -0.11
06-Sep     T  Wakefield  0.42       0.11       64.50%     -0.011     -0.11
07-Sep     S  Feldman    0.41       0.15       54.00%     -0.012     -0.15
Sep-23     B  Tallet     0.41       0.21       86.80%     -0.011     -0.21
05-Sep     C  Wilson     0.41       1.11       2.40%      0.018      0.63
Jul-20     J  Duchscherer0.41       0.11       51.10%     0.012      0.13
May-23     E  Bedard     0.41       0.11       51.10%     -0.011     -0.11
Apr-16     D  Aardsma    0.41       0.29       82.70%     0.015      0.27
08-Sep     G  Balfour    0.41       0.29       82.70%     -0.01      -0.17
09-Sep     E  Jackson    0.4        0.11       63.00%     0.012      0.13
Sep-21     C  Waters     0.4        0.11       63.00%     0.012      0.13
Apr-16     C  Buchholz   0.4        0.11       63.00%     -0.011     -0.11
May-23     E  Bedard     0.4        0.11       63.00%     -0.011     -0.11
Aug-13     K  Slowey     0.4        0.11       46.20%     0.022      0.22
Sep-26     D  Aardsma    0.4        0.95       92.20%     -0.01      -0.38
02-Sep     A  Burnett    0.4        0.11       18.10%     -0.011     -0.11
Jun-29     O  Perez      0.4        0.1        46.20%     -0.01      -0.1
04-Sep     S  Kazmir     0.4        0.1        46.20%     0.012      0.13
10-Sep     J  Bale       0.4        0.1        46.30%     -0.01      -0.1
Jul-31     J  Garland    0.4        0.29       8.40%      0.024      0.43
03-Sep     J  Lester     0.4        0.29       8.40%      -0.01      -0.17
04-Sep     A  Sonnanstine0.39       0.11       20.30%     0.013      0.13
Jul-30     B  Burres     0.39       1.17       93.00%     -0.015     -0.46
Jul-13     A  Burnett    0.39       0.09       46.40%     -0.01      -0.09
Aug-31     S  Downs      0.39       0.29       3.10%      0.019      0.27
Sep-18     H  Ramirez    0.38       0.52       94.30%     0.023      1
Apr-14     A  Sonnanstine0.37       0.1        56.40%     0.096      1
06-Sep     R  Rowland-Smi0.37       0.1        56.50%     -0.009     -0.1
07-Sep     R  Feierabend 0.37       0.1        56.50%     -0.009     -0.1
Aug-26     T  Wakefield  0.37       0.11       61.00%     -0.01      -0.11
Jun-15     R  Oswalt     0.37       0.28       82.10%     -0.009     -0.17
Sep-28     J  Papelbon   0.35       0.64       96.30%     0.02       0.89
04-Sep     S  Camp       0.35       0.93       94.70%     -0.003     -0.22
Apr-16     M  Timlin     0.35       0.56       93.70%     0.024      0.89
03-Sep     G  Balfour    0.35       0.5        89.70%     0.013      0.39
Jul-30     D  Sarfate    0.35       0.29       82.30%     -0.009     -0.17
08-Sep     J  Weaver     0.35       0.11       12.40%     -0.009     -0.11
05-Sep     J  Lopez      0.34       0.29       87.20%     0.012      0.27
Jul-26     C  Hansen     0.33       0.53       95.90%     0.003      0.28
02-Sep     J  Weaver     0.33       0.54       90.80%     0.041      1
02-Sep     J  Weaver     0.32       0.11       73.20%     0.009      0.13
Jun-25     Z  Duke       0.32       0.52       89.60%     -0.008     -0.24
01-Sep     A  Lopez      0.31       0.13       78.70%     0.008      0.14
Sep-15     M  MacDougal  0.3        1.17       95.50%     -0.013     -0.46
Sep-28     H  Okajima    0.3        0.56       92.10%     -0.008     -0.26
May-27     B  Burres     0.3        0.13       76.80%     0.071      1
Jul-13     A  Burnett    0.3        0.44       1.20%      -0.007     -0.21
12-Sep     B  Tallet     0.3        0.44       89.50%     0.041      1
01-Sep     J  Crain      0.29       0.27       2.30%      -0.007     -0.17
08-Sep     J  Arredondo  0.28       0.51       1.80%      -0.007     -0.24
03-Sep     J  Lester     0.28       0.54       2.20%      -0.007     -0.25
06-Sep     R  Messenger  0.27       0.5        96.60%     -0.008     -0.5
02-Sep     M  Garza      0.26       0.5        92.10%     0.01       0.39
06-Sep     J  Howell     0.26       0.54       93.60%     -0.007     -0.25
Jun-24     T  Gorzelanny 0.25       0.11       7.50%      -0.006     -0.11
Sep-14     E  Jackson    0.24       0.11       79.50%     -0.006     -0.11
01-Sep     A  Lopez      0.24       2.46       97.20%     0.009      1
12-Sep     A  Brown      0.21       0.44       94.10%     -0.005     -0.21
04-Sep     J  Litsch     0.2        0.11       86.20%     0.011      0.23
12-Sep     B  Wolfe      0.2        0.81       96.80%     -0.004     -0.34
03-Sep     T  Percival   0.2        0.32       96.50%     0.028      1.78
04-Sep     S  Kazmir     0.19       0.1        6.90%      0.007      0.13
Jun-21     J  Burton     0.19       0.54       1.10%      -0.005     -0.25
Jul-18     G  Smith      0.18       0.25       93.70%     0.002      0.09
Sep-14     D  Price      0.18       0.29       92.10%     -0.005     -0.17
Jun-15     W  Wright     0.18       0.45       97.20%     0.023      2.66
11-Sep     J  Nathan     0.17       0.27       0.60%      -0.004     -0.17
May-24     C  Silva      0.17       0.11       89.30%     -0.005     -0.11
Aug-26     J  Papelbon   0.17       0.25       0.60%      -0.006     -0.25
May-20     D  Cabrera    0.17       0.54       2.50%      0.008      0.39
Apr-17     J  Beckett    0.17       0.11       2.10%      -0.005     -0.11
11-Sep     K  Calero     0.17       1.9        0.60%      -0.004     -0.57
09-Sep     Y  Yabuta     0.16       0.26       0.50%      0.009      0.26
11-Sep     D  Aardsma    0.16       0.25       95.70%     -0.005     -0.25
03-Sep     B  Tallet     0.16       0.25       1.40%      -0.005     -0.25
Aug-20     B  Tallet     0.16       0.44       94.90%     -0.004     -0.21
Aug-17     J  Newman     0.14       0.38       97.10%     0.009      0.62
04-Sep     J  Hammel     0.14       0.1        0.40%      0.008      1
Apr-14     S  Dohmann    0.14       0.23       94.90%     0.003      0.21
02-Sep     J  Hammel     0.13       0.5        96.60%     0.018      1
02-Sep     J  Wright     0.12       0.52       98.50%     0.013      2.59
Sep-14     D  Price      0.12       0.54       97.10%     0.009      0.63
Jun-22     M  Lincoln    0.12       0.54       97.10%     0.004      0.39
Jun-27     S  Schoeneweis0.12       0.32       97.30%     0.001      0.12
Jun-27     P  Feliciano  0.12       0.29       1.40%      0.012      1
Aug-20     J  Carlson    0.12       0.23       94.80%     -0.003     -0.14
09-Sep     J  Bulger     0.11       0.23       96.50%     0.003      0.21
Aug-21     R  Halladay   0.11       0.23       1.80%      -0.003     -0.14
Apr-14     S  Dohmann    0.1        0.5        97.00%     0.004      0.39
Jun-17     R  Wolf       0.09       0.34       97.90%     -0.003     -0.34
01-Sep     C  Fossum     0.09       0.61       98.10%     -0.002     -0.28
May-21     D  Sarfate    0.08       0.29       96.30%     0.005      0.43
Jul-21     B  Bonser     0.08       0.29       96.30%     -0.002     -0.17
Jul-28     R  Bierd      0.08       0.25       0.70%      -0.003     -0.25
Jul-27     M  Delcarmen  0.08       0.56       0.50%      0.004      0.4
Jul-18     D  Braden     0.08       0.29       96.90%     0.015      1
May-21     L  Cormier    0.08       0.71       98.60%     0.007      1
May-20     D  Cabrera    0.07       0.54       0.80%      -0.002     -0.25
10-Sep     H  Nomo       0.07       0.1        96.20%     0.021      1
Sep-17     S  Linebrink  0.07       0.11       96.50%     0.019      1
Jul-21     C  Breslow    0.07       1.17       98.90%     0.001      0.38
Jul-22     B  Bass       0.07       1.17       98.90%     0          -0.2
Jul-31     J  Garland    0.07       0.29       0.80%      -0.002     -0.17
08-Sep     J  Hammel     0.07       1.17       99.10%     -0.003     -0.46
04-Sep     C  Bradford   0.06       0.26       0.40%      -0.002     -0.16
Jul-28     J  Guthrie    0.06       0.46       0.30%      0.002      0.34
May-21     L  Cormier    0.06       0.95       99.30%     0.001      0.27
03-Sep     J  Frasor     0.06       0.52       0.20%      -0.002     -0.52
Sep-18     L  Broadway   0.06       0.63       99.30%     -0.002     -0.63
12-Sep     J  Frasor     0.05       0.21       98.50%     -0.001     -0.21
Aug-17     J  Newman     0.04       0.46       99.30%     0.001      0.34
11-Sep     R  Halladay   0.04       0.3        0.10%      -0.001     -0.3
02-Sep     D  O'Day      0.04       0.56       99.30%     -0.001     -0.31
Apr-19     J  Johnson    0.04       0.13       0.40%      0.002      0.14
May-26     C  Bradford   0.04       0.13       0.40%      -0.001     -0.13
11-Sep     J  Duchscherer0.03       0.09       0.60%      -0.001     -0.09
May-20     D  Cabrera    0.03       0.25       0.20%      0.004      1.87
May-24     B  Morrow     0.03       0.63       99.70%     0          0.17
Jul-23     J  Nathan     0.03       0.54       99.50%     -0.001     -0.25
Jun-17     C  Guevara    0.02       0.71       99.70%     0.001      0.26
Jun-25     T  Beam       0.02       0.11       99.10%     0          0.13
May-23     R  Dickey     0.02       0.52       99.80%     0          0.93
Jul-31     J  Arredondo  0.02       0.25       0.10%      -0.001     -0.25
Jun-27     J  Smith      0.01       0.5        99.80%     0          -0.5
Jul-30     F  Cabrera    0.01       0.54       99.80%     0.001      1
Jun-17     C  Guevara    0.01       0.29       99.60%     0.001      0.43
Aug-21     R  Halladay   0.01       0.44       0.10%      0.001      0.37
Jul-31     D  Oliver     0.01       0.29       0.10%      0          -0.17
Jul-18     L  DiNardo    0.01       0.25       99.70%     0          -0.25
Aug-17     J  Fulchino   0          0.34       99.90%     0          0.91
Jun-15     O  Villarreal 0          0.28       100.00%    0          0.27
Jun-24     F  Osoria     0          0.11       0.00%      0          -0.11
Jun-17     C  Guevara    0          0.46       100.00%    0          -0.46
Aug-27     M  Timlin     0          0.11       0.00%      0          -0.11
03-Sep     J  Lester     0          0.11       0.00%      0          -0.11
08-Sep     K  Jepsen     0          0.11       0.00%      0          -0.11

So how did he do?

Not as badly as you may think. A-Rod’s highest LI plate appearance was on Aug. 15 against the intrepid Royals. It was the bottom of the ninth, two out, two on (first and second) with the Yankees behind 4-3. Yup—that checks the “clutch” box! The boy came through with an infield grounder up the middle that got him to first and moved both runners over. Job done, although New York went on to lose the game.

The second highest LI appearance was less successful. In a similar situation against the Blue Jays but with no outs A-Rod grounded into a double play. The Yankees lost that one too.

The next highest, against the Angels, was slightly better. LI was 4.46 and A-Rod reached, albeit on error. If we continue to go through play by play we’ll be here all day. We need a more systematic approach. Check the table below:

LI         Number   Success    WPA
>3         28       0.464      -0.547
1.5-3      110      0.427      -0.195
1-1.5      138      0.391      -0.642
<1         348      0.44       1.871

By segmenting A-Rod's plate appearances into strata we can try to isolate how well he did in high LI (i.e., clutch) situations. We use an LI of 3 as a cut-off—this represents the top 5 percent of clutch PAs. In the table above, number is the number of instances of that LI situation occurring. Success is the number of times WE went up as a result of A-Rod's endeavours. It proxies to OBP but doesn't equal OBP as the list contains instances of A-Rod stealing or being picked-off. WPA is the sum of WPA in the stratum in question. A positive number is good.

What does all this mean?

Let's look at the numbers. In the highest LI stratum, "success" is above average (0.427)—in fact it is the highest of any strata. However, cumulative WPA is a disappointing -0.547. Compare that to the lowest LI bracket where WPA is 1.871. A word of caution: Be careful comparing the WPA data. First, the WPA is driven by leverage. In other words, high LI situations result in the biggest swings in win probability. Similarly the higher number of "trials" for lower LI events will drive cumulative WPA. (Note: Li x WPA is sometimes used as a metric to adjust for this issue.)

Superficially A-Rod did better in the clutch than he did in non-clutch situations, although WPA does not reflect that. However, the margin is small&mash;one walk-off HR could account for the WPA swing in the ">3" bracket. How else can we judge A-Rod's 2008 performance?

One way we can determine how good he was in the clutch in 2008 is to compare his performance to other years. Fangraphs gives LI and WPA data back to 2002. If we produce the same table for the years 2002-2007 we get the following:

LI         Number   Success    WPA
>3         128      0.422      1.004
1.5-3      684      0.447      7.596
1.5-1      949      0.447      5.713
<1         2666     0.405      10.228

Although we are ignoring aging, park etc., we at least can compare the 2002-2007 data to the 2008 data. First, "success" for the 2002-2007 period is 0.420 vs. 0.427 for 2008. However, in highest LI situations A-Rod performed better in 2008 than he did in previous years when judged by 'success'.

Finally it is also worth noting that that the lowest "success" is for the lowest LI situations.

Is this evidence that A-Rod performs well in the clutch or had a good 2008 in clutch situations? Not really. The simple truth is that clutch ability is impossible to predict and even harder to measure. However, based on this cursory look, Mr. Rodriguez doesn't do too badly in high LI situations. Give the dude a break.

References & Resources
Obviously a huge thanks to Dave Appleman at Fangraphs for his fantastic (and free) resource.

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