According to form?

A couple of months ago, I looked at how much particularly good or bad starts impacted teams’ expected performances. Given that we’re just past the All-Star break, it seemed like a good time to revisit Rany Jazayerli’s formula that predicts team performance based on the past three seasons and regression to the mean.

Well, it turns out that the forecast results after about 100 games are nearly the same as what each team has done so far this season. In other words, at this point, the significance of the present season far outstrips that of previous seasons.

The win total each team currently is on pace for and the victory mark forecast using the formula are listed below, carried out to one decimal place to highlight the small differences.

(Through games of Sunday, July 21)

AL East      Pace    Forecast  Difference
Red Sox      97.2    97.2       0.0
Rays         94.9    94.9       0.0
Orioles      91.6    91.6       0.0
Yankees      86.0    86.0       0.0
Blue Jays    75.2    75.2       0.0

AL Central   Pace    Forecast  Difference
Tigers       88.5    88.5       0.0
Indians      86.0    85.7       0.3
Royals       76.7    76.6       0.1
Twins        69.9    70.1      -0.2
White Sox    66.5    67.3      -0.8

AL West      Pace    Forecast  Difference
Athletics    94.2    94.1       0.1
Rangers      89.3    89.3       0.0
Angels       77.6    77.9      -0.3
Mariners     76.0    76.0       0.0
Astros       55.1    55.4      -0.3


NL East      Pace    Forecast  Difference
Braves       90.9    90.9       0.0
Phillies     80.2    80.2       0.0
Nationals    79.3    79.5      -0.2
Mets         74.1    74.3      -0.2
Marlins      59.1    59.6      -0.5

NL Central   Pace    Forecast  Difference
Cardinals    99.6    99.1       0.5
Pirates      96.2    95.5       0.7
Reds         90.9    90.9       0.0
Cubs         72.6    72.5       0.1
Brewers      68.5    68.9      -0.4

NL West      Pace    Forecast  Difference
D-backs      84.3    84.3       0.0
Dodgers      83.5    83.5       0.0
Rockies      78.5    78.5       0.0
Giants       75.2    75.5      -0.3
Padres       70.4    70.4       0.0

If you want to get an idea of how your team is going to finish, at this point don’t look at history as a guide. Instead, consider strength of schedule, home-away splits, coast-to-coast trips, suspensions, and other factors.

One thing that is all but certain is that the standings are going to change over the next two months. We just don’t know how much or in what ways. And that’s one of the beauties of baseball.

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Comments

  1. JIMMY said...

    Great article Again… Completly unrelated…Does anyone else sense that the Pirates are on the cusp of many great NL dominating seasons??? What are the chances that this offseason they resort to picking up stable SP talent? I mean looking around the league at the great SP squads like St. Louie(amazing organization through and through)an emerging Mets organization and a resurging Braves team, the Bucs look like their only weakness is SP. If they get that whos to say they don’y average 90 to 95 Ws per season..EASILY

  2. Greg Simons said...

    Jimmy – Pittsburgh has Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon and Luis Heredia, so they have some good, young starting pitchers.  However, pitchers are born to get hurt, so more depth and some additional trades and/or FA signings (such as Burnett and Liriano) would be quite helpful.

    “Many great NL dominating seasons?”  That’s asking for a lot, but I think they should be battling for playoff spots over the next few years at least.

  3. Leo Walter said...

    Looking at thee Pirates prospects,you might want to get into a little more depth than just Taillon and Heredia.I would think that if you were looking at possible additions to the SPing next season you would have to consider Jean Mar Gomez,who has pitched very well this season. They might even consider stretching Justin Wilson out also. Then, there are two currently injured pitchers who did make MLB appearances before their injuries : Phil Irwin and Kyle McPherson. After that there is Stolmy Pimental,now at AAA,Nick Kingham and Casey Sadler (DL )at AA,and though at Low A,Tyler Glasnow might be considered,though ‘15 or ‘16 would be more likely.There is a lot more talent in the Pirates Orginization than is really commented on.

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