A better ERA projection

The THT Forecasts have been as good or better than any at projecting the rates of home runs, walks and strikeouts allowed by pitchers. However, recent third-party tests have shown that we have fallen short in projecting pitcher’s runs allowed, which is the most important number. After conducting a THT roundtable discussing possible solutions, and […]

Rotovalue tests 2011 batting projections

Geoff Buchan has posted the results of his testing of the 2011 batting projections from several leading sites, our own THT Forecasts (aka Oliver), Baseball Prospectus’ Pecota, Steamer, Rorovalue, and Marcel. I am pleased to say that, according to this set of tests, that Oliver had a very good year. Check out Geoff’s article here

Park factor fix for Forecasts

The Forecasts update posted yesterday, Feb. 18, will have different numbers for every player from the week before, as I discovered a logic error in my code which was preventing park factors from being applied to each player’s batting and pitching projections. Recently published Forecasts were park neutral but now are as intended, specific to […]

Forecasts updated to reflect deadline trades

Once we were able to get the new team rosters from mlb.com, our crew of team experts went to work last night updating the depth charts for each team, entering the expected playing time for each player from now until the end of the season. Oliver was re-run, and now the rest of season projection […]

Oliver production notes

First off, I made a necessary correction in the in-season projection of fielding runs. Quite simply, the previous code was not correctly designed and was giving an incorrectly weighted sum of the past four seasons. The intention was to apply the same weighting system that is used for the in-season batting and pitching projections, but […]

Quantifying Dustin Ackley

Dustin Ackley is on a hot streak. The 23-year-old second baseman, in his second year at Triple-A in the Marine’s system, had a batting average/on base percentage/slugging average of .355/.449/.606 in 30 May games after a sluggish .211/.336/.305 April. Two years after the Mariners made Ackley the second overall draft pick out of the University […]

FanGraphs Live

Saturday morning FanGraphs held its first Live! event in New York City, and I had the honor of attending as the official THT delegate. Carson Cistulli has written his recap of the event and Mr. Studenmund has asked me to do the same here at THT. I really enjoyed the whole experience. I even took […]

Is Brett Wallace still a prospect?

Two years ago, the Cardinals selected Brett Wallace with the 13th pick in the first round, as a third baseman out of Arizona State. The word was that although he had a major league bat, his defense would necessitate an eventual move to first base. Wallace did indeed rake in college, compiling .404/.481/.687 and .410/.525/.753 […]