A second look at scoring bias.
It’s all a matter of your point of view.
This is a look at baserunning runs, excluding stolen base attempts. Here’s the basic method: For all plays, we consider the lead runner only. We figure out the average change in run expectancy for the lead runner for each non-discretionary running event – typically a ball in play (either a hit, error or out). Those […]
You, too, can be a sabermagician.
Today marks the latest release of Retrosheet‘s event files, including 2009, the 1952 AL and some corrections to other years. This is a guide written for someone who already has an SQL database (MySQL, that is) set up and is comfortable with it. I am in the process of putting together a set of tutorials […]
J.C. Bradbury: Though old players may not be what they once were, the evidence indicates they can still be valuable. According to my estimates, a hitter who has a .900 OPS at his peak would be expected to post around an .850 OPS at 35; a pitcher with a peak 3.5 ERA is expected to […]
It’s a popular topic. Let’s ignore the decision to bunt with two strikes – even Jeter admits that was a mistake – and look at the decision to start the PA bunting. So what’s the most salient fact about Derek Jeter bunting? He reaches base safely a third of the time when he lays down […]
Baseball Prospectus has a metric called Wins Above Replacement Player, which (ideally) should be a pretty straightforward proposition. But let’s look at a few things. I have a collection of sortable WARP1 reports from October 9th, covering 1996-2009. How does it match up what’s currently on the site? Currently, BPro says Vlad was worth 59.1 […]
So on one hand we have Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds. According to them, the Phillies have a 67.6172% chance to win the NLCS; the Yankees have a 70.4483% chance to win the ALCS. Compare that to the current odds coming out of Vegas. The Phillies have an implied odds of about 48% percent to win […]
The Twins made it real interesting but they went ahead and “validated” my prediction anyway. (That is, of course, tongue-in-cheek – I don’t think anyone predicted a game quite like that.) Anyway, your Game One odds (win percentages listed are for the home team): Twins at Yankees – 0.673 The Twins used everything they had […]
From a recent BPro chat by Joe Sheehan: Nate McLouth is still a fourth OF masquerading as a starting CF. Is this really so? JC Bradbury doesn’t think so, and marshalls the evidence that says otherwise. He does a decent job and seems much more invested in the particular outcome than I do so I’ll […]
Over the weekend, I predicted that nobody would clinch the AL Central in the regular season. This turned out to be correct. But now of course someone has to win the AL Central, as they’re going to a one-game playoff in the Metrodome Tuesday. And it looks like things are stacked in the Twins’ favor. […]
Well, the Tigers and the Twins go into the last game of the season tied for the lead of the AL Central. Who’s going to come away with the win? Most likely, neither team. At least not tomorrow. Both teams have the advantage of home cooking, so that’s a wash. With that included, what are […]
From Rays Index: How many times have you seen it written or heard somebody say: “Wins is a useless way to evaluate a starting pitcher” Apparently at least one time less than it needs to be said. The thrust of the post: What we see is a very clear trend. As a pitcher’s ERA+ goes […]
Fancy run estimators like linear weights explained in layman’s terms.
From a recent BPro chat: Aaron (YYZ): Doesn’t the AL ROY almost have to be Elvis Andrus? He’s the 8th most valuable SS (by WAR) in all of baseball (and the 9th best SS offensively by wOBA) Christina Kahrl: Why use wOBA when EqA’s testably more accurate? BP has tested the accuracy of EqA before; […]
How well do we know what we think we know?
Pretty accurately, but not perfectly.
Okay, so the title is misleading. They’re both numbers and can be subtracted from one another with wild abandon. Just don’t expect it to mean anything. What do I mean? The basic formula for FIP is: (13*HR+3*BB-2*K) / IP + 3.2 You can fancy it up a bit (or a whole lot, if you want […]
This is a follow-up to yesterday’s post about making WAR graphs. There were several requests for plot lines and the legend to be larger, and I’ve done that. Also, at Tango’s blog, there was some discussion about including the total WAR in the legend, and how to make that line up properly. It occured to […]