Career projections 2011

Each of the past few years, I’ve published career projections for all players aged 21-41 based on a system I developed a few years ago. See last year’s article for reference. This year, I’m too busy to write an article, but I’ve run the numbers so I figured I would throw them up here for […]

Saber seminar

On May 21, I’ll be participating in a sabermetric seminar at Harvard University. The seminar will take place over two days, and include such sabermetric luminaries as Jeremy Greenhouse, Tom Tippett, Alan Nathan, and Mitchel Lichtman. It costs $120 to attend the seminar ($75 if you’re a student), with all proceeds going to the Jimmy […]

How much should Pujols get?

Apparently, discussions on a contract extension between Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals are not going well. It’s rumored that Pujols is looking for an Alex Rodriguez-like deal (or even more), a price tag that the Cardinals claim they cannot afford. Both sides have resorted to some posturing in the media, and it’s looking […]

Searching THT Forecasts in your browser

If you’re a THT Forecasts subscriber (and if you aren’t, why not sign up today?), it turns out that you can search for players on Forecasts without having to go to the home page first. It works differently for different browsers, but here’s how to do it for the most popular ones: 1. For Internet […]

THT Forecasts: Player comments are up

The truth is, most of them have been up for about a month now, but we finally put up the last batch this morning, and now, in addition to over 9,000 projections, major league playing time forecasts, and MLEs, THT Forecasts subscribers also have access to well over 1,000 player comments written by some of […]

Predicting the Cy Young and MVP winners

In The Hardball Times Annual 2009, I built a model for predicting the winners of the MVP and Cy Young Awards. My model(s) have historically done pretty well (note: in-sample testing), getting the winner right around two-thirds of the time (a little worse for the MVP and a little better for the Cy Young). Last […]

With a month to go, who are this year’s Cy Youngs and MVPs?

It’s been awhile since I took a look at who Oliver projected to win the big year-end awards, so I figured I’d check-in with some numbers. Last time, we saw Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera winning their leagues’ MVP awards with Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum as the Cy Youngs. Needless to say, three months […]

Two months in, who are the Cy Young and MVP contenders?

One of my favorite things to do with THT Forecasts is to look at how projected end-of-the-year leaders change as real numbers begin to pile up, and projections both evolve and start to play a smaller role. Two months into the season, I thought it would be fun to look at which players are on-pace […]

Two months into the season

A month ago, I looked at how THT Forecasts saw the season playing out, and with another month of the season now almost gone (and a new update to Forecasts today) I figured now would be a good time to take another look. The AL East is now looking extremely competitive. A month ago, THT […]

So how much will Pujols get?

The results are in, and thanks to the hundreds of readers who responded, I think we have a pretty grasp on what Albert Pujols’s next contract might look like. The median estimate submitted by Hardball Times readers was 8 years and $250 million (coincidentally, that’s what I voted), while the mean was very similar at […]

How much will Pujols get?

With Ryan Howard signing a 5-year, $125 million extension, there’s been a lot of talk about how that might affect Albert Pujols’s next deal. Pujols will be a free agent after the 2011 season (assuming he does not receive an extension before then), and at 31 years of age, that will be his big chance […]

A month into the season

We just updated THT Forecasts today, and a month into the season the projected standings have changed quite a bit. In the AL East, the Yankees still project to finish on top, but the Rays have clearly surpassed the Red Sox as the Wild Card favorites. Not only are the Rays 7 games up in […]

THT Forecasts Updated

THT Forecasts have been updated with Oliver projections that are current as of Monday, April 19. We apologize for the delay in updating but we ran into a few technical problems that have now been fixed. Projections should be updated regularly on Sundays or Mondays every week from now on.

THT Forecasts, now with saves and wins projections

THT Forecasts have just been updated. You will now find won/loss projections for pitchers (based on a neutral offense), as well as saves projections as contributed by our depth chart editors. Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum project to lead the MLB in wins with 16 (remember, this doesn’t mean that the eventual league leader will […]