Just a note: We’ve updated the Oliver forecasts for THT Forecasts. Some players over 40 were missing and have now been added, we updated rosters, and of course, depth charts are updated every week (note that the depth chart update actually occurs at the end of the weekend, I just didn’t say anything about it […]
We’ve updated THT Forecasts today, fixing the pitcher MLE process (this is the same fix we instituted for hitter projections last week) and adding players who did not play in 2009, such as Ben Sheets. Note that even after fixing the pitcher MLEs, Stephen Strasburg still projects for a 2.86 ERA this season. Wow.
A note to all subscribers: If you go to the leader boards in THT Forecasts, you can now download any leader board as a CSV file (or in XML if you so desire). So, for example, you can download all of the depth-chart adjusted projections for hitters, or just the depth-chart adjusted projections for the […]
Below is a long post detailing all the updates we’ve made to THT Forecasts today. Here is the short version, for those of you who don’t want so much detail: (1) We have added leader boards for all of our projections. So, for example, if you want to see which hitters project to lead the […]
As some of you may know, some of the Oliver projections for minor leaguers did not look too…realistic. Jesus Montero, for example, was projected to hit .314/.361/.542 this year, .351/.400/.676 by 2014. Now, Montero is absolutely one of the best prospects in baseball, but it’s probably too early to predict that he will be the […]
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Debuting the newest offering from The Hardball Times.
Which players are most likely to reach 3,000 hits, 763 home runs, and 300 wins? Downloadable spreadsheet at the end!
David looks at the MVP and Cy Young races, using a model he developed for his article in The Hardball Times Annual 2010.
Can a baseball analyst beat his own projection system? David checks the results of his preseason predictions.
What does it mean to know how good a player really is? Or, how likely is Ichiro to get a hit in his next at-bat?
I wanted to pass along the word to our readers that the Sons of Sam Horn message board is currently running an auction to raise money for Curt Schilling’s Pitch for ALS, a charity devoted to improving the quality of life for people living with ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease. I highly recommend […]
Since hitting his second home run of the season on June 6, David Ortiz is hitting .333/.447/.769 with 5 home runs and 9 RBI in 47 plate appearances. I think he might be back.
An explanation of what goes into Luck Independent Statistics, aka LIPS.
We’ve re-designed THT Fantasy; come take a look at all the new features!
SG posted the results of his annual Diamond Mind projection blowout today, running 1,000 simulations each with six different projection systems to try to predict the 2009 standings. You can find his results for THT here. Last year, of the six systems SG tested, THT had the best average error at the end of the […]
THT authors remember John Brattain.
David runs down a list of players who he thinks will over- or underperform their THT projections.
We’ve re-run our projected standings with some help from SG of the Replacement Level Yankees Blog, and I thought I would share the results below the fold. Note that the standings are based on 100 simulations in Diamond Mind Baseball. The “DIV” column tells you the percentage of the time that a team won their […]
The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009 is shipping.