Back to back to basics

I’m currently participating in the FantasyGameday.net slow mock draft, and in it I drew the 12th pick. There’s nothing inherently inferior about any spot in the draft, though depending on the distribution of talent in the player pool in any given season, one may prefer picking in the beginning, middle, or end of the draft.

The obvious blessing and curse of the bookend positions—first and last—is that in each situation you are repeatedly making back to back picks and then having to wait the maximum possible number of picks before your next opportunity to select. This leads to certain rational behaviors, but anecdotally, I’ve seen it lead to some irrational behaviors as well. So, let’s talk about strategy when in this draft position.

The longer you have between picks, the more likely you will have to “reach” to get a player you want. So, while no drafter should ever feel particularly restricted by pre-ranks, the further you are toward one side of the draft order, the more you should be willing to disregard those kinds of anchors.

In a standard 12-team league, there will be 22 picks between your choice and your next opportunity. Chances are that any player you are considering for either of your current choices will not be available on your next turn. The likelihood of your player being drafted by another team before your next turn essentially starts at 99 percent after your 2.1 one pick and decreases as the draft goes along. Still, relative to your opponents, you are least likely to have a player you pass on return to you. Therefore, reaching is rational.

Another somewhat risky strategy that is more rational at the bookend than other draft positions is attempting to start a run on a position. The idea of starting a run makes sense from this point in the draft order for three reasons.

First, having the greatest time between picks, you are the most likely to get shut out of a top tier player at a shallow position if the run is started by another owner. Second, one of the benefits of runs is that it induces dead picks. By this I mean that if you want a player who is 12 ADP slots behind your last pick, but there are 22 picks before your next pick, you need other teams to draft players outside of those intermediate players for your target to remain available. Aside from people having their own opinions, one way this can happen is other teams deviating from their rankings to nab a position in the middle of a run.

Third, you can apply twice the amount of pressure to start such a run because you have back-to-back picks. But, this is where you have to differentiate from being strategic from merely being cutesy.

In the FantasyGameday.net slow mock, I attempted this strategy in a manner I felt was defensible. In rounds three and four, I choose Mike Napoli and Joe Mauer back to back. I hope you will understand my logic even if you disagree with the picks.

Let me first set some context. This is obviously a two-catcher league. I’m also competing with a number of savvy drafters, with whom I haven’t drafted before. At the time of this pick Buster Posey was the only catcher off the board. And, finally, I was not enamored with my other options. I was pretty set on taking Napoli with one of my picks and, as it turned out, I was seriously considering only two of the next 10 players drafted as being realistic options for my team at that point in the draft.

Now, for my rationale. First, on the players themselves. I’ve become convinced that it won’t be difficult for Napoli to return this level of value in a two-catcher league, playing a fair amount of first base and hitting in Fenway. I also think that having not just an above-average, but an elite batting average producer from your catcher spot is an incredibly underrated asset. I have the best power threat and best batting average producer at the shallowest roster spot—a spot at which other teams will be struggling to merely plug in a player who will get 350+ plate appearances.

To me, the downside of this selection was actually pretty minimal. On the team construction side, there was no other position at which I could have rostered two consensus top-five options. I figured that this move would probably hurt me on the middle infield side of things, as neither of my first two picks (Evan Longoria and Giancarlo Stanton) were middle infielders either.

But, I liked my elite options at catcher better than any of my middle infield options. Neither of the other two players I was considering (Ryan Zimmerman and Jacoby Ellsbury) were middle infielders either. I figured that at worst I’d have two strong catchers and a weak middle infield, while I knew some other teams would wind up with a weak catching tandem and a strong middle infield. A fair tradeoff, I figured.

On the strategic side, I did not know how highly this group valued catchers. It’s not uncommon for advanced owners to go hard after high-level catchers in two-catcher leagues, so I wasn’t sure when the rest of the crop would start to go. It seemed totally possible that if I took just Napoli, three to six more catchers could be off the board by my next pick. I’d rather reach a little for elite talent earlier than reach for third-tier talent later. But, then, there was also the question of a run.

Another drafter asked me about my picks right after I made them and the way I answered was basically that I wouldn’t know if what I did “worked” until several rounds later. If Miguel Montero was still around 120 picks into the draft, then I probably messed up. But, if a lot of others wound up overpaying for their choices, and my choices are objectively better assets, then I’d have won.

After my 3.12 and 4.1 catcher picks, here are the other catchers who got drafted in rounds four through eight.

5.8: Yadier Molina
5.10: Carlos Santana
6.2: Wilin Rosario
6.9: Matt Wieters
6.12: Victor Martinez
8.2 Salvador Perez
8.7: Miguel Montero

Did I “win”? I’m not sure, but I think my picks look quite defensible.

And, by the way, as I predicted, my infield is weak, but I think I paid decent prices, which is more my concern in a draft. (Dan Uggla 9.12, Howie Kendrick 18.1, Marco Scutaro 19.12)

Before I sign off, I want to caution against “gimmick” back-to-back picks. In my years of playing fantasy sports, I’ve seen a lot of owners make back-to-back mid-tier closer picks, or mid-tier middle infielde picks, or even mid-tier starting pitchers with the bookend slot (hell, I did that in this draft too (Josh Beckett 13.12 and Johan Santana 14.1). It seems kind of fun and cool to do, for some reason. I get that. You sort of make a splash in the draft room and it’s fun to see your roster populate like that. But, it’s not always practical.

Napoli and Mauer were unique assets, in my estimation—the best power and average sources at their position, respectively. There were no comparable options, and they were at least very close to being the two best overall players on my board, given my current make-up, league settings, and overall strategy. It is unlikely that Jonathan Papelbon and Jason Motte are next to one another on your own rankings. Don’t make a set of mirror picks simply because it feels clever or looks cute.

When I made my back-to-back pitcher picks, we were in the 13th round and I had only one starting pitcher on my roster (C.J. Wilson 11.12) I needed to start filling out my rotation with vets with upside in short order—my strategy going in was to get the core of my pitching staff in rounds 9 – 15. I didn’t know who would go fast with this new crop of drafters, but the one thing I always know is that there will be quality pitching available later than I might think there should be.

When debunking the saying that things come in threes, the greatest modern American philosopher, George Carlin, once quipped that everything actually comes in ones, but a lot of people are too dumb to notice the pattern right away. Be like George; although you may have two consecutive picks, it is wisest to treat them individually, unless you have a well-thought out reason and tangible expectation of impact for doing otherwise.

Print Friendly
 Share on Facebook0Tweet about this on Twitter0Share on Google+0Share on Reddit0Email this to someone
« Previous: What baseball must learn from Lance Armstrong
Next: Cooperstown Confidential: Farewell to Enzo Hernandez, Fred Talbot and SportsWatch »

Comments

  1. Steve said...

    Derek,

    I’m in the draft as well.  It’s been fun.  I’m curious what kind of numbers you’re projeting Napoli for.  I’ve been a longtime Nap fan, esp when he was hitting 20 homers per 300 AB’s in LA.  Does the hip injury not concern you?

    Catcher is a pretty high variance position in fantasy, which is what makes Mauer a nice pick. You can bank on elite AVG, R, RBI at that spot. I guess Napoli is a lock for 20 bombs, given health.  But again, that is a concern (and the possible awful batting average).

    I might have opted for Molina over Napoli.

  2. Jimbo said...

    I chose the end last year and will do so again. Here’s how I look at the two picks:
    First one is at the ‘end’ of a round, and there I’m trying to make sure any value the league let fall is jumped on.
    Second one is the ‘start’ of another round, and there I’m making sure I get the guy I’d most regret losing before my next turn.
    If there are rounds of efficient drafting, maybe I have little value to choose from and ‘reach’ twice. Or maybe two guys I wasn’t expecting to be available provide max value.

    It is refreshing that drafting this way sort of makes ADP lists irrelevant. Only takes one owner who likes “your guy” enough to snag him. I only use ADP now for indicators (e.g. on average Kendrick, Ackley, Utley are going before my sleeper, hypothetically Beckham, so once I see that group getting drafted I know to jump on my guy.)

    I’m against TRYING to start runs, however…I pour over trends in my league drafts and actively target certain picks ahead of where the runs usually start. Example? If I want Salvado Perez this year it is pretty clear I’ll need to get him in the 13-16 range as teams start filling out catcher spots before the end of round 17.

    Knowing this, I can at least hope to ‘encourage’ runs where they normally occur versus getting disappointed by seeing a run ahead of me. More than any other, you have to have a plan for that draft slot imo. Easy to wind up on tilt if you don’t!

  3. Aaron said...

    Would have been a better strategy if you took Carlos Santana instead of Napoli but I suppose that’s a difference of opinion. 

    I would feel more confortable with this strategy if it involved 2B/SS, perhaps if you were taking a guy with position eligibility such as Zobrist and another MI, locking that up and forcing a run on a position you no longer need.

  4. Derek Ambrosino said...

    Steve,

    What’s up – good to see you here.

    The hip concerns me a bit, but everything else seems to be shaping up in Naopli’s favor, circumstantially speaking. So, if all goes well health-wise, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall in around a career high in PAs. With some nagging health concerns, he could still easily reach about 450, which is enough to get the power required to earn his draft spot in a two-C league.

    My colleague, Brad Johnson, did some math basically said a .230/.310/.450 line w/ 30HR at 500+ AB would net a $28 value in a 2-C league. That seems attainable, with some risk on the AB side. If I were to get a $28 player at pick #36 in a snake draft, that’s pretty good return, IMO.

    Jimbo,

    Good to see you! Sorry the pace has been so slow in the offseason.

    I’m not sure if I love the last pick inherently, but your points are definitely well-taken.

    Football handicappers consider the numbers between 7 and 10 “dead numbers.” It takes a lot more to move a line from 3 to 3.5 than it does to move a line from 8 to 9. I see a similar concept in drafting. Generally, speaking I want to be at the last position before a tier swing – basically to be picking when my opinion on potential options is strongest. …Honestly, a lot of the time in that 10 – 18 range, I don’t have particularly strong opinions on one player over the next.

    Also, perhaps I was too strong in my talk about attempting to induce a run. You don’t really want to make a pick unless you think it is the best choice for your team. But, your picks can impact the way others pick, and it is fair to consider whether there may be reverberations from your picks that could alter the course of the draft to your benefit. …That’s something to be considered among the probabilities of outcomes stemming from your choice.

  5. Derek Ambrosino said...

    Aaron,

    Not to be pedantic, but the strategy is the strategy. The strategy would have been the same had I taken Carlos Santana. Your difference of opinion is in the execution phase. And, there’s room for discussion there. Steve would have considered Molina.

    The reason I didn’t elect to do this in the MI vein is because most of the absolute best MIs were already off the board. I didn’t feel that would give me the same level of comparative advantage at the position that C would. I’ve certainly executed the MI version of this before – or simply just taken 2 MIs in the first 2 or 3 picks of a draft before. I didn’t feel that the pool of available players dealt me the ideal hand to play that way.

  6. Derek Ambrosino said...

    By the way, I just want to shout out a friend of mine who in this slow mock as well.

    His name is Daniel Schwartz and he’s working to start up a platform called Rotobanter, which will focus on providing rapid responses to user-generated questions and requests for content in a more in-depth way than social media options live Twitter. The platform will also offer a number of other features common to standard fantasy websites. This project is still in development stage and he hopes to launch for this season. If you are interested in the idea, or feel like you may be qualified to assist – Daniel can be reached via Facebook or Twiiter

    http://www.facebook.com/RotoBanterDanielSchwartz

    @Rotobanter

  7. Aaron said...

    Derek,

    Thanks for my response, I have been reading THT for a while now but first time commenting.  It’s nice to know that the writers respond!

    Your response to Steve regarding your optimism on Napoli is well noted, perhaps enough people will be scared like me that he will fall in drafts.  I have never done a 2C league because of how tricky those can be in a snake draft so it’s nice to see an explanation for this strategy.

  8. Steve said...

    Yea, that was kinda my thought too. I was surprised to see Napoli so early. I assumed he would fall. Though, considering it’s a two catcher league, I don’t suppose he would have fell much further.  Definitely possible he would not have made it back to Derek

  9. Rotobanter said...

    Thanks Derek. Hi All. Yes, Rotobanter.com should be up and running by mid-February. Rotobanter will be your home for fantasy baseball requests and live discussion. In addition to hosting live blogs, we’ll have user-generated discussions so that we can answer requests, player analyses/comps, etc. in a timely fashion. For now anyone could tweet requests to @Rotobanter or even via email for now to
    . Our Top 360 with skills, notes and even built-in positional tiers will be available for free on the site. It should be everyone’s go-to tool on draft day. I also suggest Fantasygameday.net’s ADP & Position scarcity reports as they become available later this month.

    Thanks for the shout-out, Derek and nice to participate with you in the FantasyGameDay.net slow mock draft. As i assumed, you started the C craze which forced me into back-to-back picks of Jesus Montero & Jonathan Lucroy in rounds 9&10; respectively figuring they wouldn’t make it back around to me since I was in the 2-slot.

    IMO, this slow mock caused great value to be available toward the end of the draft as a guest pointed out on the site because we’re forced to fill roster spots and we cannot make any moves after the draft. In the previous slow mock on FGD, we agreed that we would turn the results into a league where no moves are to take place other than bench utilization i.e. no adds, drops, trades, etc. I used this same strategy to draft guys. This is considered a redraft league so i de-valued potential studs like Profar (who i still landed in round 22) and Machado because i cant make moves to supplement their value. In an actual league i would draft them and others earlier than their draft position in this mock.

    Just my two bits for now. Additional insight will get posted on Rotobanter.com after its launch and via twitter @Rotobanter.

    Excellent draft strategy as always.

  10. Spud said...

    Fun read. I have never played in a 2 C league and never intend to so this example goes over my head a bit. I would love to hear more theories on drafting around the corner, though.  Is ‘trying to start a run’ really the only theory?  Clearly drafting for value and tiers are strategies for any draft position but starting a run didn’t really work in your scenario because wieter, Santana and montero are darn comprable and could have been had much later.

    It sounds really risky to start a run when all of the value comes from getting the last guy in a tier…

  11. Derek Ambrosino said...

    Spud,

    I’m not sure any of those options are comparable to Napoli. Unless Santana makes a jump this year (totally possible) what he’s shown thus far at the plate is essentially Napoli’s floor. Weiters is similar. Montero is a bit of a different player, but I’d rather pair the major power threat with Mauer than another more balanced asset. As it happens, I have batting average all over this roster.

    Again, I’m not totally saying one should bank on starting a run. I’m saying it’s a possibility, and one that is increased when you are in that position and draft the same position consecutively. Even if you are successful in starting a run, doing it absent of a larger strategy is not all that productive. The idea here was to get what I wanted at a price I was willing to pay AND perhaps it would ALSO force others to overpay for their options as well.

  12. Spud said...

    As you say, it’s a matter of taste but I haven’t heard anyone so high on Napoli. His injury concern makes his floor very low. You don’t go from a 39 mil contract to a 5 mil with incentives unless there’s some real concern.  His ceiling is only a hair higher than what these other guys did last year and santana/ wieter aren’t at their ceiling in my book. points leagues definitely care less about napoli I guess that’s the real difference. You’re talking roto and I’m talking as a red sox fan

  13. Matt said...

    Very defensible.  Good to hear it from a different prospective.

    Just a couple of ultimate statements that I disagree with or that you may want to put an asterisk next to.  Consensus top 5 catchers – Mauer certainly, but I’ve seen plenty of rankings where Napoli is not top 5.  Whose consensus?  I’m assuming the one here at the times, but clarification would be nice. 

    Also, THE best power threat?  If fishing for HR I would gamble on Rosario before Napoli and I suspect many, many others feel the same.  Although Napoli and Santana are more complete options than Rosario, for HR alone Rosario takes the cake.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>