Chipper Jones and age-40 WAR

by Scott Spratt
October 8, 2012

If the first two Wild Card play-in games are any indication, losses will leave teams numbed by the suddenness of their seasons’ ends. Chipper Jones must feel it more than most. His season was a farewell tour meant to be savored, but a bad call and a series of defensive mistakes—his own included—made for an abrupt end. As Jones exited the ballpark for the final time, his fans littered the field behind him with bottles. The scene was at odds with the punctuation Jones put on his tremendous career.

Jones finished his career with 90.4 WAR, which is good for 33rd all time, and seventh among third basemen, leaving him in the company of many of the best players ever to play the game. Jones will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, though he will not quite qualify for the debate of the best players ever at their positions. However, Jones walked away from the sport in even rarer company.

Of the 23 third basemen who have a career WAR of at least 60.0, eight of them played in their age-40 seasons, Jones included. Jones has the highest combined WAR over 40 years old, delineated by seasons in which the players were 40 or older by May 1.

Third basemen with at least 60.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:

Name	WAR	Final Year	Final Age	WAR over 40
Chipper Jones	90.4	2012	40	3.0
Edgar Martinez	69.9	2004	41	2.8
Graig Nettles	71.8	1988	43	2.5
Tony Perez	67.8	1986	43	1.6
Paul Molitor	75.3	1998	41	0.3
Tommy Leach	60.8	1918	40	0.3
Darrell Evans	67.9	1989	41	0.2
Wade Boggs	94.8	1999	40	-0.3

Jones actually tied both Martinez and Nettles with 3.0 WAR in their age-40 seasons, which would be excellent seasons by the standards of most players. However, those three were not most players. Jones had his best season in 1999 with 7.7 WAR. Martinez had his in 1995 with 7.5 WAR. Nettles had his in 1971 with 8.3 WAR.

By percentage of peak WAR, only Martinez was closer to his best in his age-40 season than Jones, and Martinez had become a full-time DH by age 32, so he should not really qualify. Jones, then, just completed the best age-40 season relative to his own standard of play of any great third baseman in history.

Third basemen with at least 60.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:

Name	Peak WAR	Peak Year	Peak Age	WAR at 40	% Peak at 40
Edgar Martinez	7.5	1995	32	3.0	40%
Chipper Jones	7.7	1999	27	3.0	39%
Graig Nettles	8.3	1971	26	3.0	36%
Darrell Evans	10.2	1973	25	1.5	15%
Paul Molitor	6.3	1987	30	0.8	13%
Tony Perez	9.0	1970	27	0.5	6%
Tommy Leach	6.5	1907	31	0.3	5%
Wade Boggs	9.4	1985	26	-0.3	-3%

Jones had an unprecedented season for a player of his position and age, and he stacks up well against the entire field, as well. I raised the standard to 80.0-WAR players who played in their age-40 seasons and ended up with 26 names. Jones ranks 10th in WAR over the age of 40, but every player in front of him on the list played in at least one additional season beyond age 40.

Players with at least 80.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:

Name	WAR	Final Year	Final Age	WAR over 40
Luke Appling	84.7	1950	43	15.0
Honus Wagner	149.8	1917	43	13.5
Cap Anson	88.7	1897	45	11.5
Stan Musial	139.3	1963	42	8.5
Barry Bonds	168.2	2007	42	7.9
Ty Cobb	163.9	1928	41	6.8
Carl Yastrzemski	108.7	1983	43	4.6
Ted Williams	139.8	1960	41	4.4
Rickey Henderson	114.1	2003	44	4.2
Chipper Jones	90.4	2012	40	3.0
Hank Aaron	150.5	1976	42	3.0
Willie Mays	163.2	1973	41	2.8
Nap Lajoie	108.2	1916	41	1.9
Joe Morgan	108.0	1984	40	1.6
Pete Rose	91.5	1986	45	1.5
Tris Speaker	142.6	1928	40	0.5
Babe Ruth	177.7	1935	40	0.3
Rogers Hornsby	134.9	1937	41	0.3
Eddie Collins	134.2	1930	42	0.1
Frank Robinson	116.3	1976	40	0.1
Dan Brouthers	80.1	1904	45	-0.1
Bill Dahlen	80.0	1911	41	-0.2
Wade Boggs	94.8	1999	40	-0.3
Reggie Jackson	81.4	1987	40	-0.4
Cal Ripken	99.7	2001	40	-0.5
Ken Griffey Jr.	83.9	2010	40	-0.9

If I apply the same standard for Jones compared to these players as I did for Jones versus other third basemen, it reveals how impressive a season Jones had in 2012. Only Luke Appling in 1947 had a better age-40 season relative to his peak, and only Appling, Cobb, and Wagner had more WAR in their age-40 seasons than Jones.

Players with at least 80.0 career WAR who played in their age-40 season:

Name	Peak WAR	Peak Year	Peak Age	WAR at 40	% Peak at 40
Luke Appling	8.1	1943	36	4.7	58%
Chipper Jones	7.7	1999	27	3.0	39%
Ty Cobb	12.7	1917	30	4.8	38%
Cap Anson	7.2	1886	34	2.5	35%
Honus Wagner	12.9	1908	34	4.2	33%
Pete Rose	8.1	1976	35	2.2	27%
Hank Aaron	9.4	1961	27	2.4	26%
Stan Musial	11.5	1948	27	2.7	23%
Rickey Henderson	10.5	1990	31	2.4	23%
Willie Mays	11.5	1965	33	2.2	19%
Nap Lajoie	10.1	1906	31	1.6	16%
Joe Morgan	11.4	1975	31	1.6	14%
Carl Yastrzemski	12.1	1967	27	1.2	10%
Barry Bonds	12.9	2001	36	0.7	5%
Tris Speaker	11.0	1912	24	0.5	5%
Ted Williams	12.4	1946	27	0.4	3%
Babe Ruth	15.4	1923	28	0.3	2%
Eddie Collins	11.1	1909	21	0.2	2%
Frank Robinson	9.1	1966	30	0.1	1%
Rogers Hornsby	12.4	1924	28	0.1	1%
Dan Brouthers	9.4	1892	33	0.0	0%
Bill Dahlen	7.2	1896	26	-0.1	-1%
Wade Boggs	9.4	1985	26	-0.3	-3%
Reggie Jackson	9.9	1969	22	-0.4	-4%
Cal Ripken	11.1	1991	30	-0.5	-5%
Ken Griffey Jr.	10.2	1996	26	-0.9	-9%

Jones easily could have held on for another few years as his skills diminished, as many of his historical peers have done. I believe it is fitting that he retired when he did. The Wild Card loss will rob him of the chance to end his career with a World Series victory, but he still will walk away on top. His outstanding play made that happen.

References & Resources
Statistics from FanGraphs.

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Chris g

11 years ago

Darrell Evans had 4.8 WAR in what you would call his age 39 season, missing the cutoff by a mere 25 days. I’m sure he had more WAR after turning age 40 than Chipper, but I’m not about to roll up my sleeves and prove it.

Brian

I think it is clear that Chipper could have hung around a season or two more, but chose to leave on his terms. Congrats to Mr.Jones. May he now go quietly into the nite as a hero in his time.

A Nats fan

bstar

Scott, why include Tony Perez and Edgar Martinez as third basemen? Perez played 70% of his career at 1B, Edgar about the same at DH. Perez played his last season at 3B in 1971 and Edgar in 1992. I don’t get it.

I only bring this up because omitting these two would make Chipper’s season look even better, wouldn’t it?

rubesandbabes

Yeah, I don’t get the Edgar Martinez thing either, but for sure if that’s the standard, then please include George Brett for his 1993 season.

This list contains so many outlier WAR numbers at at glance, it’s hard not to notice the limitations (crudeness?) of the stat just going a little ways back in baseball history..

Scott Spratt

Brett actually missed the date cutoff for what I deemed to be an age-40 season (by less than a month, but I had to draw the line somewhere), or else I would have included him. I opted to include guys that weren’t full-career third basemen because I found them to be interesting comparables. Guys like Edgar Martinez moved off the position by age 40, but WAR makes position adjustments, so it still provides a fair estimate of their value to their team. It’s up to you whether or not to give Chipper credit for sticking at third base until the end.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG