Comment of the Day

This from Beanster, in the Alyssa Milano thead:

I don’t believe the Alyssa Effect has received sufficient attention by the statistical community. I took a closer look at the data based on dating information provided by this site.

While only 3 of her 26 documented relationships are major league starting pitchers, I think the results are interesting and reasonably predictive in the event she reneges on her 2008 pledge to swear off dating baseball players.

Exhibit A: Carl Pavano (2003)
During their 2003 relationship, Pavano made 33 starts and posting 12 wins with a 4.30 ERA (33/12/4.30). In 2004 after their breakup he improved dramatically to (31/18/3.00). However this euphoria proved short lived, as Yankee fans can attest, and he regressed in 2005 to (17/4/4.77).

Exhibit B: Barry Zito (2004-05)
Zito’s dating numbers averaged (34.5/12.5/4.53), remarkably similar to Pavano’s. After the breakup he also improved in 2006 to (34/16/3.83), nearly as big an improvement as Pavano’s. What happened the year after? You guessed it, regression to (33/11/4.53).

Exhibit C: Brad Penny (2006)
Penny’s dating year of 2006 was also an unspectacular (29/7/3.90). He then experienced what I am now terming the Milano Bounce with a nice (33/16/4.33) and continued this into 2008 with a (33/16/3.03). Because we are not using precise dates on the relationship, the numbers are only estimates but it appears Brad remained mentally strong for a longer period before succumbing to the inevitable Milano Meltdown with a 2009 line of (19/6/6.27).

For GM’s and fantasy enthusiasts, the conclusions from a small but consistent sample size are: (1) expect mediocrity during the dating period, possibly related to distractions brought on by the newly smitten couple, (2) buy low as soon as a breakup is announced to take advantage of the Milano Bounce, and (3) sell high after one season to be safe before the predictable Milano Meltdown sets in.

Statistics don’t lie, my friends. And my readers — thankfully — don’t have lives.

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  1. Hoffburger said...

    Unless I’m missing something, the stats used for Brad Penny are actually for 2005-2008.  So if it’s the case that the relationship was in 2006, then Penny’s Bounce and Breakdown map even better to Zito and Pavano…

  2. Dr Paisley said...

    To protect MLB from the adverse aspects, I am willing to take all the Milano bouncing that would normally have gone to pitchers for the forseeable future.

    I’d save rock and roll too, but there’s only so much sacrifice I can manage.

  3. Jonah Keri said...

    Love the idea of the Milano Effect, except for one problem: It’s identical to the SI jinx. Based on this limited sample size, Milano targets players who appear to be at the height of their powers. As anyone with even cursory knowledge of the concept of regression to the mean would note, this pretty much ensures a decline, same as being on the cover of SI or Madden Football.

    Maybe SI and Madden should just put Milano on the cover. 99.9% of gamers would prefer to look at her instead of Brett Favre or Vince Young anyway.

  4. Beanster said...

    Hoffburger is correct – original post incorrectly referenced Brad’s 2005 line, as well as games rather than starts.  Correct numbers are eerily similar to Barry and Carl:

    Dating Line (2006): (33/16/4.33)
    Milano Bounce (2007): (33/16/3.03)
    Milano Meltdown (2008): (17/6/6.27)

  5. Beanster said...

    Thanks to mike for pointing out Tom Glavine.  I somehow missed him buried between Victor Webster and Nick Lachey.  Here’s analysis:

    Exhibit D: Tom Glavine (2006-07)
    Average Dating Line for those 2 yrs was a predictably mediocre (33/14/4.14).  Based on prior history, Atlanta made what should have been a shrewd investment by signing him for 2008.  Unfortunately, he went straight into Meltdown mode with a line of (13/2/5.54).  The 2-year dating period at age 40+ may be partly to blame for the lack of a Bounce but I’ll leave that analysis and discussion to others.

  6. Beanster said...

    Thanks atlguy – looks like you are correct.  Apologies to Tom and Chris Glavine as well as Alyssa.  Personally, I do hope Tom bounces back in 09!

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