Comments

  1. Ben Pritchett said...

    @JQ- They might need some injuries. I think Hector Noesi is the next starter in waiting then you’re looking at Banuelos.

    He will pitch in 2012, but it will be hard to speculate win. Second Half should be your starting point.

    And this is all assuming they don’t bring in another free agent starter between now and then.

  2. Sam said...

    I won’t be near a computer on Sunday, so I’d love to get your thoughts on two players whose ADP rankings are zooming up – Dee Gordon and Matt Moore.  Are the changes in their rankings due mostly to hype to the general public or do you, as a fantasy expert, feel that this is warranted?  One more thing – I have Gordon and Aybar as potential keepers on the same team.  Am I right to only keep one since they’re so similar (SB’s, but no power) and, if so, who would you keep?  Thanks.

  3. MH said...

    @Sam

    Not a writer, but figured I’d chime in.  MDC redid their rankings and that’s part of why Gordon and Moore are shooting up the ADP charts, since they both got a huge boost (too big, IMO).  Moore was already seeing some helium before the rerank, so his rise is probably more legit, but its hard to tell exactly where he’s going to go at this point until we see a greater variety of comprehensive rankings.  Either way, I’m not trusting his ADP.  If I’m going to draft him in redraft, I can’t imagine doing it much before pick 90, and I’d be more comfortable in the 120 range.  I’ll let someone else take the risk if they want to earlier than that while I target guys like Bumgarner, Garza, and Wainwright instead.  In a keeper format I’d obviously be more liberal with Moore. 

    As for Gordon, I’m a fan, and I agree that the Aybar comp is pretty solid.  Its interesting because I see Gordon, Elvus Andrus, and Aybar as pretty similar players, but their ADPs are all over the map.  Honestly, I think they’re almost backwards—Aybar might be my favorite of the group for the short term, and definitely looks like the best value relative to ADP unless Gordon falls into the same range.  Gordon has the most SB upside but the least job security, while Andrus is the safest for high R production thanks to his spot on top of a powerful lineup and solid BB%, and Aybar has some modest pop that the other two don’t but his lineup spot is less certain and will play a big role in his SB/R potential, so they’re fairly similar overall values to me.  In a vaccuum, I’d probably go with Aybar over Gordon.  His skillset is a bit more balanced and there may be a bit of untapped power potential in his age 28 season, while Gordon is all legs and BABIP.  Depends on other issues though, they’re close enough that any cost difference is significant and if you’re roster isn’t competitive this year it may be wiser to keep Gordon since Aybar is much closer to an eventual decline.

  4. Nick Fleder said...

    @JQ

    Agree with Ben, I yield to him.

    @Sam

    Agree mostly with MH. There’s certainly a ton of hype surrounding these guys next year, and that’ll only increase as we get closer to April. Moore is at 115 right now in 296 qualifying mixed league, 5×5 drafts. That puts him as the #33 starting pitcher, behind guys like Brandon Beachy, Johnny Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Ricky Romero, and Josh Johnson (his name wouldn’t be on the list if he didn’t have chronic injury problems, but he does, and I’m staying as far away as possible next year) I’d take Moore at that spot in a heartbeat, but unfortunately, I think he’ll shoot up to the top 25 by mid-March. I’m quite bullish on him, and think he could easily warrant a mid-#2 SP pick, but some might disagree.

    As for Gordon/Aybar, you are most certainly right to keep only one. I was surprised to see Gordon already ahead of Aybar—albeit only by less than a third of a spot—considering Aybar’s track record. I would take Dee in a long-term keeper league and would probably take him, if the two are priced equally, in a single-season keeper, too. Gordon could easily steal 50 bags this year, and I don’t buy concerns about his lack of job security at all; the org loves him and Justin Sellers is not a legit handcuff to be worried about. Aybar may have hit a peak at 10/70/60/30, and I certainly wouldn’t expect any improvement. Gordon could double Aybar’s steals total, should easily surpass his runs scored total, and will chip in 30-40 RBIs to boot. Keep Dee.

  5. Nick Fleder said...

    @JQ

    Rescind that previous comment… Now, barring injury, I doubt he gets more than 3-5 starts, if that. Depends, of course, on future trades—maybe Burnett’s contract is eaten and he’s traded, or maybe Hughes finally hits the market, but I doubt we see much Manny this year.

  6. Brad Johnson said...

    Status Update:

    We’ve run into some technical difficulties that require Bossman Studes’ attention. Check back at 3:00 PM EST and if we haven’t figured out the problem by then, we’ll scrub the mission.

  7. Ben Pritchett said...

    First of all, thank you to all who are here for the Rotochat.

    We are having technical difficulties. Please be patient, we are trying to resolve the problem as soon as possible.

    We’ll let you know what we know when we know it. Thanks again for all of your dedicated to THT Fantasy.

  8. Ben Pritchett said...

    If you haven’t already come to this conclusion, we are going to have to postpone the Rotochat. We are very sorry for inconveniencing all of you. Look for another Rotochat very soon.

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