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100% Certainty

by Dave Studeman
September 30, 2007

The National League East moved from probability to certainty, as the Phillies beat the Nationals, 6-1, and the Mets lost to the Marlins, 8-1. This was a thrilling comeback for the Phils, and the second-biggest collapse in baseball history by the Mets. Congrats to Philadelphia.

So our attention turns to the National League West and the wildcard slot. The Padres are losing to the Brewers, 9-4, in the top of the seventh (win probability of 98%), but the Rockies and Diamondbacks are tied at 0-0 in the bottom of the sixth in Colorado. Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching a great game for the Rockies, allowing only one hit and striking out ten in six innings.

Update: the Rockies just took a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the sixth. If the Rockies maintain their lead and the Padres lose, they'll play an extra game tomorrow.

More: the Rockies blow it open in the eighth. Looks like we are headed for a playoff tomorrow. What an incredible story both out west and back east.

Dave is the manager of the Baseball Graphs website.. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.

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