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2004 Win Shares Have Arrivedby Dave StudemanMay 16, 2004 The 2004 Win Shares, which boil a player's contribution to his team down to a single number, can be seen here. Bill James invented Win Shares as a simple way to compare baseball players. The idea was to develop a statistic that allows you to compare shortstops and outfielders, starters and relievers, relievers and shortstops, etc. Since the win is the ultimate measure of success, James developed a stat that measures each player's contribution to his team's wins, or Win Shares. Although the Win Share methodology is extremely complex, the output is simple: one number that represents the number of wins contributed by that player. Actually, Win Shares is the number of wins contributed by that player multiplied by three. Why? To make it simpler. By multiplying the result by three, Win Shares provides enough meaningful distinction between players. It's enough to say that Albert Pujols contributed 41 Win Shares last year. You don't have to say that he contributed 41.1. The extra decimal point doesn't add any accuracy. There are three types of Win Shares: batting (which includes basestealing), fielding and pitching. Over an entire league, batters receive a little less than half of all Win Shares, and fielding and pitching receive slightly more than half. This will vary quite a bit for separate teams, depending on their relative strengths. So everyday players tend to garner more Win Shares than pitchers, because they are credited with both batting and fielding Win Shares. Shortstops and catchers generally receive more fielding Win Shares than other positions, because they play more crucial fielding positions. Strikeout pitchers receive more Win Shares than pitchers who allow balls in play, because they don't depend on their fielders as much. That's why we like the Win Shares system. It's simple and intuitive, and it allows you to compare players and pitchers across baseball history. Here are some other things to keep in mind about Win Shares.
Even though we've done a lot of research into alternative approaches to Win Shares, this version follows the original Bill James methodology. I plan to roll out newer approaches over the next couple of weeks, including the "WSAA" (or Win Shares Above Average) approach. As those changes come about, I'll let you know about them. Also, keep in mind that it's kind of early to be looking at Win Shares. You'll see some funky numbers here, including some fielders with no fielding Win Shares, or batters with no batting Win Shares. References and Resources You can buy the Win Shares book from Stats Inc. Here's a full, detailed explanation of how Win Shares are calculated. The Baseball Graphs site also includes 2003 Win Shares, as well as a lot of detailed Win Shares research. My thanks go out to Pete Simpson, who taught me all about Win Shares and whose spreadsheets are the source of today's Shares. Also thanks to Joe Dimino for helping me with the in-season methodology. Dave is the manager of the Baseball Graphs website.. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. Next Article: News, Notes and Quotes (May 18, 2004)>> <<Previous Article: The Exp000000000s |