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Supplementing the dynasty rankings (Part 1)

by Jeffrey Gross
January 27, 2012



Jeffrey Gross is a 24-year old law student (and die-hard Cubs fan) who currently resides in Madison, WI. In addition to writing for The Hardball Times, he also reviews tasty adult beverages as part of a side project titled "saBEERmetrics." He has previously worked for The Daily Illini and Northern Star newspapers as a film critic and sportswriter (respectively). You can reach him by email at gameofinchesblog AT gmail DOT com.

Comments

Brad Johnson said...

re: Strasurg

I think you’ll find if you really parse through all the information out there, that nobody really knows if what some call bad mechanics really increases injury risk - at least not as much as people make it out to be.

What we do know beyond a shadow of a doubt is that any change in mechanics - even if it’s a change to “good” mechanics - substantially increases injury risk.

Posted 01/27  at  09:56 AM
MH said...

Love this list, much closer to how I’d have built mine than the other three.  I’d probably flip Strasburg and Moore, but I agree they’re much closer than Strasburg and Kershaw are (and those two aren’t THAT far apart).  Might also flip Darvish and Bumgarner, and I’d have Lawrie quite a bit higher as well as Wieters and maybe Hellickson lower, but now we’re getting into nit-pick territory.

Posted 01/27  at  11:00 AM
Jeffrey gross said...

Brad
Is that your perverted way of agreeing with my list? Haha

MH,
Thanks! I’ll make sure to pass that along to my colleagues. Just kidding. Except when it comes to josh smile

Posted 01/27  at  12:42 PM
Brad Johnson said...

I’m saying I have Strasburg ahead of Moore. Incidentally, I have Moore ahead of Felix. Apply the transitive theory and we discover that I have Strasburg two spots ahead of Felix.

Like MH said, it’s nitpicky. More precisely, I think they are worth the same and that’s the order that I “like” those players in.

Where you and I diverge substantially-

I think I’d list Sandoval at #9. Bumgarner at #10 (with some comments worrying about his high slider usage), Harper at #11, and Montero back a spot at #12. Then pick up with McCutch and continue.

That’s really the only stretch where we differ substantially.

Posted 01/27  at  12:52 PM
jazzyjeff said...

Great list, thanks.  I also appreciate the links to last years lists.  The “Hmmmm’s” for me have to be guys that I invested in last year who seemed to fall off the radar, Domonic Brown and Pedro Alvarez.  All seem to be going in the Ian Stewart direction but were rated ahead of the likes of Montero, Jennings and Trout.

Posted 01/27  at  02:11 PM
Brad Johnson said...

Brown’s worth a continued look. Last year I was the guy telling everyone to calm down and pass, now I advise looking at him as a buy low candidate.

Brown is unlikely to play this year so you’ll need minor league slot for him. The Phillies want him to get full time reps in AAA to work on his clownish defense. When he returns in 2013, he’s going to step into the lineup as a guy at the peak of his skills without a well-established book against him. He could dominate in his first spin through the league.

He’s shown the ability to adjust at every level, but it takes him some time. This year could be the first time he masters a level in his minor league career.

Posted 01/27  at  02:33 PM
MH said...

@Jeffrey

They know how I feel wink.  We had a rather lengthy discussion in the comments of that article, which primarily began about the Stras vs. Kershaw issue and eventually moved onto where Hellickson was (FWIW, I didn’t mind that they left Hellickson off, but there was another somewhat rude commenter who did, lol)

Posted 01/27  at  04:16 PM
Tex Pantego said...

I’d take Felix first.  (1) He’s the only guy on this list who’s proved he can do it year after year after year.  Too many other pitchers on this list are getting it done with near-max effort fastballs or hard torque breaking stuff.  Felix paces himself, and gets by mostly with changes in speed and grip. 

I can’t prove it, but I’m fairly positive he’s basically on cruise control, and not going to put a lot of heavy torque on his arm for a team that has no chance of going anywhere. Once he’s on a good team, and in games that matter, I think he’ll be super filthy when he needs to be. Even then, I think he’s mature enough to pitch rather than throw, and won’t go out on there trying to throw no hitters. 

I’d also bet $ that Elvis Andrus is going to start living up to his hype.

Posted 01/27  at  07:16 PM
Brad Johnson said...

I’m going to put it out there that Elvis Andrus is exactly the player he was supposed to be.

Posted 01/27  at  08:20 PM
AtomicDumpling said...

Hello Mr. Gross,

I really like this list and agree with those who stated this list is much better than the ones posted a couple weeks ago. Good job! The only guy I think is rated too high is Desmond Jennings. He did go on a hot streak when first called up to the Rays, but then he quickly cooled off in September. I think people forget how old he is because he came to the majors so late. I would move him down between Starlin Castro and Matt Wieters. Other than that one minor quibble I think it is a great list.

Posted 01/27  at  09:23 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Brad:

“I think I’d list Sandoval at #9. Bumgarner at #10 (with some comments worrying about his high slider usage), Harper at #11, and Montero back a spot at #12. Then pick up with McCutch and continue.”

Sandoval is valuable and has increasing positional scarcity on his side, but he’s still only .300/25/90/0/70 because 1) no speed and 2) poor lineup. That’s solid 3 category production, and top 70ish value, but it’s not top 10.

Bumgardner will get addressed next week too.

Harper, to me, is a touch lower because his 2012 value will be lower. My rankings include 2012 value. A dynasty is obviously not about who turns in the most value this year, but a roster spot that is going to be wasted for potentially a whole season (I think he’ll be up by mid-June, but who knows) is a big knock versus a guy who is for sure going to be on the major league roster and has similar value potential

Posted 01/27  at  09:44 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@JazzyJeff:

Thanks. I think you can’t sell Domonic Brown short. I’d put him in the same position that Pablo was in for my rankings heading into 2011 (on the cusp, but needs to show something). I still like Ian Stewart FWIW

Posted 01/27  at  09:46 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@Tex Pantego,

First, I agree with Brad. Andrus is exactly what he was supposed to be. He has decent speed but has not shown great base running skills. The rangers are not afraid to put the red light on their speedsters’ attempts at swiping bags. That creates a value deviation risk.

As for Felix, I agree he’s proven it time and time again, but the Mariners’ offense frankly sucks. You need run support to win games. I expect elite numbers from felix in all categories except wins. In real life, yeah, i’d rank felix ahead, but this isnt real life and wins matter.

Posted 01/27  at  09:49 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

@AtomicDumpling,

Thanks for the kind words. I think my colleagues made really respectable, justifiable lists. I just happened to disagree with them for the reasons outlined above and as will be further explained in the part 2 article.

As for Jennings, I totally understand the skepticism. I do not think he necessarily has better upside than either Trout or Harper, but:
1) He’ll play a full season in the majors in 2012, which definitely gives him a boost
2) He steals a lot of bases with above average power—could potentially be a 20/50 threat.
3) He’s a BJ Upton type with better batting average and Upton’s generally been a top 50 player.
4) Jennings is a well balanced fantasy provider. Elite in one category (SB), strong in 2 others (HR/R—probably), average with upside in another (AVG), and a wild card in the fifth (RBI)

I won’t buy Jennings this year, because I almost guarantee you someone likes him more than me, but if I can get him at BJ Upton prices, I’m pouncing.

Posted 01/27  at  09:53 PM
will h. said...

jeff—quoting verducci? really? i’ll take my stras, thanks very much.

Posted 01/28  at  01:17 AM
Joe said...

I don’t know that I’m going to buy any insight you have into Madison Bumgarner if you can’t even spell his name correctly.

Posted 01/28  at  11:34 AM
Jeff gross said...

Joe,

My apologies. The other couple thousand words in this article were Spelled right though

Posted 01/28  at  03:14 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...

The other part about the argument for Felix at #1 is that SP is so deep, and one of the easier positions to find late value in drafts/auctions. When you commonly have to fill 5 OF slots, somebody like Upton, and Stanton if he hits his potential, are just going to be more attractive commodities than ace SPs.

Posted 01/28  at  07:19 PM
Josh Shepardson said...

This article has spurred me to (finally) begin work on following up my dynasty rankings.  Because I’m a no good, dirty thief, I’ve decided to steal this format of presenting the player I ranked, and following it up with an explanation.  Enjoyable read Jeff, even if it made me a little nauseous reading comments praising your list as the best.

Posted 01/29  at  04:34 AM
Jeffrey gross said...

@derek
100% agree and it’s why an outfielder was ranked 1 and 3. Should have made that clearer

@josh
Steal away.

Posted 01/29  at  11:36 AM
Jeffrey gross said...

Er I mean 1, 2, and 4

Posted 01/29  at  11:42 AM
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