Applying the Guttridge-Wang trade model to this year’s deadline trades (Part 1)

If the value assumed for each player is only regular season value, then these calculations don’t tell the whole tale.  If Victor Martinez, for example, give the Red Sox a better chance at getting to the playoffs and advancing in each round then that has some value as there’s certainly value in a team hosting those games and the value to a franchise in revenue of being a champion.

I understand that this value is difficult to quantify and the degree to which Victor Martinez, for example, makes it more achievable.  But there is definitely some value there that isn’t quantified in these calculations. 

And, regarding Martinez, anything that limits Mike Lowell’s time in the field or Jason Varitek’s at bats against righthanded pitchers is very valuable to the Red Sox.  Oy vey!

As far as the Red Sox and Victor Martinez goes . .
I think you might be mistaken in assuming Masterson is actually a starter.  Sure, he held down the fort earlier in the season with some spot starts but he has some troubling splits in K/BB

K/BB vs righties: 40/15
K/BB vs lefties:  28/25

Now these numbers may change with time if he’s able to develop a usable changeup but until that happens I feel like he might be a late game specialist.

Price has control problems sometimes and reports are that he can be easily rattled (which I’m sure you know won’t fly in Boston).  The only thing you might regret there is that he was taken with a relatively high draft position.

All of this added to the fact that Varitek is looooong in the tooth, Lowell has no mobility at all, Youkilis needs a blow more often than he’s getting, Papi should sit against lefties at this point and Martinez handles staffs pretty well makes this a decent move in my book.

Interesting piece. I agree with the comments made by the two commenters above. I also think that a problem with this method is it does not take into effect relative value to the team. If you’re replacing a player like Bartolo Colon in the White Sox rotation with Peavy (someone who is likely to post a negative value), Peavy becomes more valuable (though admittedly this would be true with most pitchers). You also seem to make a couple dangerous assumptions. One is to know what the market for players is, especially elite players. In the “current market” AJ Burnett, who most would agree is a lesser player than Peavy, is making $83 million over five years, and can you really say for sure an elite starting pitcher would sign for less than that on the open market, when the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs are always going to be there to drive up their price? In addition, the market IS down right now, but contracts in general are still going UP, so what if Peavy’s contract looks like a bargain in three years when (hopefully) he is still a very good pitcher (i.e. Burnett’s Blue Jays deal or Meche’s Royals deal).

Admittedly, I’m biased as a White Sox fan. But as a White Sox fan, I’ve generally learned to trust Kenny Williams, because he has a habit of making you look like an idiot if you don’t. So it’s quite possible this deal will blow up on the Sox and Peavy will keep getting hurt and not be as good in the AL. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

I totally disagree with your assesment of Justin Masterson. We have plenty of pithcers in our system and Masterson was never going to join our rotation. Granted he is very young has has room to develop but he cannot get lefties out and until he figures that out, he will have a tough time starting games. Hagadone could be the best out of the three. He projects as a middle of the line starter or a closer. That being said he is coming off manjor surgery and once again, we can replace relievers in our system. We did’t have to dip to far into the major league roster to add Martinez. He keeps the line moving as Tito would say when it comes to our lineup and thats all you ask. Everyone moves down in the order. I don’t get how you can say this wasn’t a smart deal.

Anytime one tries to use numbers to substantiate a trade objectively, it is a futile effort.  I bet if you look back at every single trade made in the last 30 years, they will all favor the team trading the one guy.  Potential is what it is…POTENTIAL.  The fact is that, in the Red Sox and Phillies cases, the trades made the teams BETTER THIS YEAR.  PERIOD.  EXCLAMATION POINT. 

If the younger players that were traded end up becoming Cy Young, Hank Aaron, and Mariano Rivera, but the 2009 World Series consists of the Phillies vs the Red Sox, would either of their fan bases really give a rat’s ass???

Where would the Astros have gotten the production of Lee if they hadn’t overpaid for him?  The market is not like a buffet where there are unlimited options to choose from. 

The additional revenue that acquiring players like Peavy and Lee provide, make their contracts more reasonable.  Not just the millions of dollars a playoff appearance adds to the club, but from secondary income as in merchandise sales, ticket sales, etc.  While their production may say they are a $12 million player, their name says they’re worth more.

I would love to see this formula break down the Beckett/Lowell-Ramirez trade package….

This is really a silly formula.  Prospects, are at best, suspects.  It appears in almost every trade quantity takes a back seat to quality.  Alot of prospects in these trades probably, wiil end up being borderline ML players, or huge disappointments.

Oh, come on. I think your gambling analogy would be more apt if the $500k was in 1863 Confederate scrip.

Clayton Richard has had a couple of nice starts, and could very possibly be on a similar career curve of John Danks. Poreda has shown a little aptitude for the pro game over 11 innings. Dexter Carter was a little old for his levels, but the substantial odds are that the only way Russel ever wears major league uniform is at a costume party.

2 rookies with good prospect who project out as 4-5 starters or bullpen arms, and a long-shot prospect is a nice haul for an ex-Cy Young who was on the DL, I agree. But the worst deadline deal in the recent past? Hyperbole much?

I’m in a statistics industry, also, so I appreciate the formulas to help evaluate players. But that’s all they are is evaluation tools. The games are not played on the computer, and the addition of a Cy Young winner to a team creates a cynergy among the players, fans and opponents. By all means, let us know when there’s a formula that accurately predicts whether a single player will maintain the focus and make adjustments on a major league level in order to apply the talents that amassed their stats in a dissimilar minor league environment.

P.S. If you are going to assume that Peavy is going to spent oodles of time on the DL, then insurance picks up most of his contract, I believe. That addition would to your algorhythm might put a little daylight between projections and pure fantasy.

I like the work you did here. Financially, the Red Sox may have lost out, but they can afford it, and Martinez THIS Year and NEXT year makes a difference in our lineup, and make us more Versatile. For Baseball reasons, this was a good move. We have quite the farm system, with a boatload of cash, and we can afford to do things like this. That is why it is great to have a very good farm system, it gives you this flexibility.

The only problem I have with the calculation is that if you are looking into the future, you have to include the two 1st round draft picks that the Red Sox, White Sox, and Philles will get when they hit the open market, if they dont resign them. Those two 1st rounders are worth a few million dollars a piece, and could become worth much more.