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Are the Red Sox collapsing?by David GasskoJuly 19, 2007 As a Red Sox fan, it is my duty to constantly worry. Those who thought that a World Series would result in a calmer, more laid back fan base obviously did not realize what 86 years of pure psychological trauma will do to you. The victory was nice, but it will take a lot more than that to make me into a rational human being. Irrationality, however, is something that I, along with the rest of my Sox-fan brethren, have in spades. Even when the Sox started 36-15—that’s a .706 winning percentage, my friend—we kept waiting for the other shoe to drop. Even as the Yankees fell behind by double digit games and struggled to reach .500, we kept waiting for them to overtake the Sox. And now, it seems, that’s finally starting to happen. Since that hot start, the Red Sox have gone 20-22, and the Yankees have crept back to within eight games of the division lead. Last year, the Sox fell apart in August, and a familiar sinking feeling has returned to collective stomachs of Red Sox Nation, this time a month earlier. We’re worriers by nature, and when a $200 million juggernaut is breathing down your neck (or in this case, some distance away from it, but closer than it was before), it’s only natural to get a little worried. Well, that’s how I rationalize it anyways. But are the Red Sox really treading water, or has the past month-and-a-half simply been an aberration? To answer that question, we first have to figure out what’s been wrong with the team since June. That question has an easy answer: It’s the offense. The Red Sox hitters started at a blistering pace, scoring 5.38 runs per game in the first two months of the season. They have since cooled down considerably, with a 4.53 runs per game average since. It seems like almost every Sox hitter has struggled at some point during the course of the season, so some might expect that the whole lineup really has had problems over the past month-and-a-half, but that just isn’t the case. Here are some bright spots that have emerged while the Red Sox have treaded water:
Indeed, the Red Sox have not suffered so much from bad offense as from bad luck amidst this 20-22 run. They have scored 181 runs since June 1, but created 204. In other words, they should have been scoring about 5.10 runs per game over that stretch, more than half-a-run above their actual total. Compounding that, the Red Sox underperformed their Pythagorean record by a couple of games as well. In other words—and it scares me to say this, because as a Red Sox fan I expect nothing but the worst karmic retribution—it looks like Sox fans have little to worry about. The pitching staff is very good and will only get better with Curt Schilling’s return, and the offense might actually be stronger at the end of the season than it was in the beginning. The Red Sox’s slide was not a slide at all, but just some bad luck. Good thing they could afford it. David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team, and a writer for Heater Magazine. He welcomes comments via e-mail. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. Next Article: Ten Things I Didn't Know Last Week>> <<Previous Article: Fact or fiction |
