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May 18, 2013
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August starting pitcher rankingsby Jesse SakstrupAugust 10, 2012 Jesse is a sociology major at Michigan State University, with a particular interest in social psychology. Contact him by email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), or via twitter @JesseSakstrup. Comments
Jesse Sakstrup said...
I can’t tell you why ZiPS expects that much regression. Perhaps his 3.85 xFIP and lower strikeout rate from 2010 is partially muddying his performance the past two seasons. ZiPS, in general, seems to be on the pessimistic side with a lot of their projections. I certainly don’t have any problem taking Bumgarner ahead of any of those pitchers you mentioned. I might have him ranked ahead of that entire list, too, now that Greinke is in the AL. There were too many little things I disagreed with to write a caveat about them all. Bumgarner’s numbers looked a little high to me, too, though, at first glance. If we adjust his projection to a 3.25 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.25, he moves up to number 11. Add a 5th win, and he bumps up to 6th. Posted 08/10 at 12:31 PM
The Tin Door said...
Thanks for the feedback Jesse. I realize these are not your personal rankings. In this case, I think it’s actually pretty representative of how the fantasy community feels about Bumgardner. I never hear him mentioned as a top-10 pitcher, when he’s really established himself as such. Maybe because he rarely has a GREAT start. Somehow, in 23 starts with a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 8.4 K/9, he’s pitched: If you don’t own him, he never has a start that makes you notice how strong he’s been all season. If the owner in your league doesn’t realize what he has, this is a clear “buy” - a top-10 pitcher that most owners view as a top-20 guy. Posted 08/10 at 12:46 PM
Akiyama said...
Hey there! Figured I’d do a little proofreading, and noticed for Johan Santana.. you have the ‘na’ part of Santana unhyperlinked, so it links to a profile of one “Johan Santa”.. Haha! Figured I’d just let you know! Posted 08/12 at 06:00 AM
Jesse Sakstrup said...
Thanks Akiyama, I will note that for next time. I guess the player linker got confused. Posted 08/13 at 11:10 AM
Akiyama said...
Not a problem! I admit I was surprised to see a Johan Santa actually existed! Haha. Posted 08/13 at 06:20 PM
Will said...
to the one and only Mr. Tin Door, its Bumgarner…there’s no “d” in there…thats the guy from like Rookie of the Year who breaks his arm and becomes Carlos Marmol with better control Posted 08/14 at 02:35 PM
Rob said...
There is little evidence, from both health and performance standpoints, to support Dan Haren’s ROY projections. As a big fan of his body of work, 2012 will be a bust. Posted 08/17 at 10:49 AM
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Is there any reason Bumgardner’s ROS projections are so low?
ERA/WHIP 2012: 3.08, 1.03
ERA/WHIP 2011: 3.21, 1.21
Zips ROS: 3.6, 1.23
K/9 is steady at 8.4 for past two season. BABIP a little low (.262) but not enough to expect a 20-point rise in WHIP. He’s got nearly 2 seasons of elite production. What am I missing here?
I’d certainly take him over Shields, Lincecum, Gallardo, Latos, Dickey, and probably Gio & Greinke as well.