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BABIP’s relationship to hittersby Paul SingmanJanuary 13, 2009 Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past three years. He is currently a student at UPenn welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below. Comments
Bill said...
Shouldn’t you have TTO % on the x-axis? That is what you’re using to try and predict the variation in BABIP. It won’t change your impressively low r^2, but I think it will make the graph more intuitive to look at. Posted 01/13 at 11:58 AM
Bill said...
Another possibility is that your AB threshold is a little low. BABIP can fluctuate a lot with a smaller sample size (think about Ramon Vazquez’ incredible start last year). What do the numbers look like if you use 400 or 500 AB, so you only include players who played a full season? Posted 01/13 at 12:01 PM
Paul Singman said...
Thanks for the feedback guys. I’ll try it again with a higher at bat minimum when I get the chance… Posted 01/13 at 08:31 PM
Larry said...
A good effort of what seems like a reasonable hypothesis. My guess is that the reason no significant relationship appeared was that, for even the low end of the BIP scale, there are enough over the course of a season to give an accurate figure (which would not be improved a lot by adding another 100 or so BIP). But, I could be mistaken. From my experience as a fantasy team manager, the variability of BABIP tends to be valuable over shorter time frames when sample size is still small (e.g. early in-season, when a player is clearly under average in terms of BABIP, which makes him a good trade target). That is when preying on disenchanted owners can be highly profitable. Posted 01/17 at 11:22 PM
Paul Singman said...
Larry, thanks for your feedback, and yep it was worth a shot. It is always good feeling getting a guy for cheap when you feel he is going to start playing to expectations at least. Unfortunately for you articles on players with lucky/unlucky BABIP’s are becoming prevalent in more mainstream outlets. Bill, I quickly ran through the procedure again, this time with a 500 PA minimum and got similar results so nothing there. Posted 01/18 at 12:47 AM
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Realistically, the (minimal) effect you’re seeing is largely due to a sampling concern - the more BIP you have, the closer to the mean your BABIP is likely to be. (This is why regression to the mean works - the more observations you have, the likelihood that a result is closer to the mean increases.)