Back to back to basics
by Derek AmbrosinoJanuary 18, 2013
Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.
|
May 23, 2013
THT Essentials:
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Kyle Boddy Brian Borawski James Gentile Matt Hunter Frank Jackson Chris Jaffe Brad Johnson Jason Linden Dan Lependorf Bruce Markusen Jeff Moore Greg Simons Scott Spratt Dave Studeman Shane Tourtellotte Steve Treder And here's the full roster. Now available
Or you can search by:
THT E-book    All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
Back to back to basicsby Derek AmbrosinoJanuary 18, 2013 Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com. Comments
Jimbo said...
I chose the end last year and will do so again. Here’s how I look at the two picks: It is refreshing that drafting this way sort of makes ADP lists irrelevant. Only takes one owner who likes “your guy” enough to snag him. I only use ADP now for indicators (e.g. on average Kendrick, Ackley, Utley are going before my sleeper, hypothetically Beckham, so once I see that group getting drafted I know to jump on my guy.) I’m against TRYING to start runs, however…I pour over trends in my league drafts and actively target certain picks ahead of where the runs usually start. Example? If I want Salvado Perez this year it is pretty clear I’ll need to get him in the 13-16 range as teams start filling out catcher spots before the end of round 17. Knowing this, I can at least hope to ‘encourage’ runs where they normally occur versus getting disappointed by seeing a run ahead of me. More than any other, you have to have a plan for that draft slot imo. Easy to wind up on tilt if you don’t! Posted 01/18 at 02:16 PM
Aaron said...
Would have been a better strategy if you took Carlos Santana instead of Napoli but I suppose that’s a difference of opinion. I would feel more confortable with this strategy if it involved 2B/SS, perhaps if you were taking a guy with position eligibility such as Zobrist and another MI, locking that up and forcing a run on a position you no longer need. Posted 01/18 at 02:41 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Steve, What’s up - good to see you here. The hip concerns me a bit, but everything else seems to be shaping up in Naopli’s favor, circumstantially speaking. So, if all goes well health-wise, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall in around a career high in PAs. With some nagging health concerns, he could still easily reach about 450, which is enough to get the power required to earn his draft spot in a two-C league. My colleague, Brad Johnson, did some math basically said a .230/.310/.450 line w/ 30HR at 500+ AB would net a $28 value in a 2-C league. That seems attainable, with some risk on the AB side. If I were to get a $28 player at pick #36 in a snake draft, that’s pretty good return, IMO. Jimbo, Good to see you! Sorry the pace has been so slow in the offseason. I’m not sure if I love the last pick inherently, but your points are definitely well-taken. Football handicappers consider the numbers between 7 and 10 “dead numbers.” It takes a lot more to move a line from 3 to 3.5 than it does to move a line from 8 to 9. I see a similar concept in drafting. Generally, speaking I want to be at the last position before a tier swing - basically to be picking when my opinion on potential options is strongest. ...Honestly, a lot of the time in that 10 - 18 range, I don’t have particularly strong opinions on one player over the next. Also, perhaps I was too strong in my talk about attempting to induce a run. You don’t really want to make a pick unless you think it is the best choice for your team. But, your picks can impact the way others pick, and it is fair to consider whether there may be reverberations from your picks that could alter the course of the draft to your benefit. ...That’s something to be considered among the probabilities of outcomes stemming from your choice. Posted 01/18 at 02:45 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Aaron, Not to be pedantic, but the strategy is the strategy. The strategy would have been the same had I taken Carlos Santana. Your difference of opinion is in the execution phase. And, there’s room for discussion there. Steve would have considered Molina. The reason I didn’t elect to do this in the MI vein is because most of the absolute best MIs were already off the board. I didn’t feel that would give me the same level of comparative advantage at the position that C would. I’ve certainly executed the MI version of this before - or simply just taken 2 MIs in the first 2 or 3 picks of a draft before. I didn’t feel that the pool of available players dealt me the ideal hand to play that way. Posted 01/18 at 02:50 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
By the way, I just want to shout out a friend of mine who in this slow mock as well. His name is Daniel Schwartz and he’s working to start up a platform called Rotobanter, which will focus on providing rapid responses to user-generated questions and requests for content in a more in-depth way than social media options live Twitter. The platform will also offer a number of other features common to standard fantasy websites. This project is still in development stage and he hopes to launch for this season. If you are interested in the idea, or feel like you may be qualified to assist - Daniel can be reached via Facebook or Twiiter http://www.facebook.com/RotoBanterDanielSchwartz @Rotobanter Posted 01/18 at 03:00 PM
Aaron said...
Derek, Thanks for my response, I have been reading THT for a while now but first time commenting. It’s nice to know that the writers respond! Your response to Steve regarding your optimism on Napoli is well noted, perhaps enough people will be scared like me that he will fall in drafts. I have never done a 2C league because of how tricky those can be in a snake draft so it’s nice to see an explanation for this strategy. Posted 01/18 at 04:01 PM
Steve said...
Yea, that was kinda my thought too. I was surprised to see Napoli so early. I assumed he would fall. Though, considering it’s a two catcher league, I don’t suppose he would have fell much further. Definitely possible he would not have made it back to Derek Posted 01/18 at 04:12 PM
Rotobanter said...
Thanks Derek. Hi All. Yes, Rotobanter.com should be up and running by mid-February. Rotobanter will be your home for fantasy baseball requests and live discussion. In addition to hosting live blogs, we’ll have user-generated discussions so that we can answer requests, player analyses/comps, etc. in a timely fashion. For now anyone could tweet requests to @Rotobanter or even via email for now to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Our Top 360 with skills, notes and even built-in positional tiers will be available for free on the site. It should be everyone’s go-to tool on draft day. I also suggest Fantasygameday.net’s ADP & Position scarcity reports as they become available later this month. Thanks for the shout-out, Derek and nice to participate with you in the FantasyGameDay.net slow mock draft. As i assumed, you started the C craze which forced me into back-to-back picks of Jesus Montero & Jonathan Lucroy in rounds 9&10; respectively figuring they wouldn’t make it back around to me since I was in the 2-slot. IMO, this slow mock caused great value to be available toward the end of the draft as a guest pointed out on the site because we’re forced to fill roster spots and we cannot make any moves after the draft. In the previous slow mock on FGD, we agreed that we would turn the results into a league where no moves are to take place other than bench utilization i.e. no adds, drops, trades, etc. I used this same strategy to draft guys. This is considered a redraft league so i de-valued potential studs like Profar (who i still landed in round 22) and Machado because i cant make moves to supplement their value. In an actual league i would draft them and others earlier than their draft position in this mock. Just my two bits for now. Additional insight will get posted on Rotobanter.com after its launch and via twitter @Rotobanter. Excellent draft strategy as always. Posted 01/18 at 06:01 PM
Spud said...
Fun read. I have never played in a 2 C league and never intend to so this example goes over my head a bit. I would love to hear more theories on drafting around the corner, though. Is ‘trying to start a run’ really the only theory? Clearly drafting for value and tiers are strategies for any draft position but starting a run didn’t really work in your scenario because wieter, Santana and montero are darn comprable and could have been had much later. It sounds really risky to start a run when all of the value comes from getting the last guy in a tier… Posted 01/18 at 09:24 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Spud, I’m not sure any of those options are comparable to Napoli. Unless Santana makes a jump this year (totally possible) what he’s shown thus far at the plate is essentially Napoli’s floor. Weiters is similar. Montero is a bit of a different player, but I’d rather pair the major power threat with Mauer than another more balanced asset. As it happens, I have batting average all over this roster. Again, I’m not totally saying one should bank on starting a run. I’m saying it’s a possibility, and one that is increased when you are in that position and draft the same position consecutively. Even if you are successful in starting a run, doing it absent of a larger strategy is not all that productive. The idea here was to get what I wanted at a price I was willing to pay AND perhaps it would ALSO force others to overpay for their options as well. Posted 01/19 at 12:53 PM
Spud said...
As you say, it’s a matter of taste but I haven’t heard anyone so high on Napoli. His injury concern makes his floor very low. You don’t go from a 39 mil contract to a 5 mil with incentives unless there’s some real concern. His ceiling is only a hair higher than what these other guys did last year and santana/ wieter aren’t at their ceiling in my book. points leagues definitely care less about napoli I guess that’s the real difference. You’re talking roto and I’m talking as a red sox fan Posted 01/19 at 06:07 PM
Matt said...
Very defensible. Good to hear it from a different prospective. Just a couple of ultimate statements that I disagree with or that you may want to put an asterisk next to. Consensus top 5 catchers - Mauer certainly, but I’ve seen plenty of rankings where Napoli is not top 5. Whose consensus? I’m assuming the one here at the times, but clarification would be nice. Also, THE best power threat? If fishing for HR I would gamble on Rosario before Napoli and I suspect many, many others feel the same. Although Napoli and Santana are more complete options than Rosario, for HR alone Rosario takes the cake. Posted 01/25 at 05:00 PM
Page 1 of 1
Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. | ||||
Derek,
I’m in the draft as well. It’s been fun. I’m curious what kind of numbers you’re projeting Napoli for. I’ve been a longtime Nap fan, esp when he was hitting 20 homers per 300 AB’s in LA. Does the hip injury not concern you?
Catcher is a pretty high variance position in fantasy, which is what makes Mauer a nice pick. You can bank on elite AVG, R, RBI at that spot. I guess Napoli is a lock for 20 bombs, given health. But again, that is a concern (and the possible awful batting average).
I might have opted for Molina over Napoli.