November 22, 2009

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Base Runs Pythagorean Winning Percentage

by Robert Dudek
May 10, 2004

Runs scored compared to runs allowed is a good predictor of a team's win-loss record. The theory goes that teams can have a run of good or bad luck in close games, and that means that their runs scored and allowed totals are a better reflection of their ability. If that's true, then it would figure that using sophisticated run estimation formulas instead of actual runs scored and allowed should be even better - since teams can have good and bad luck bunching their hits and walks together.

Team hitting and pitching stats are provided to us daily by Baseball Info Solutions and allow us to calculate Base Runs - my favorite run estimator. There are several versions of the formula floating around the net, including one I developed last year. Using that formula, here are the Base Runs Pythagorean WPCT for each team:


American League
TeamBaseRunsOppBRBR Pyth
Red Sox164.8120.9.643
Rangers184.7141.3.630
Orioles161.0133.1.593
Angels167.5148.4.558
Chi Sox159.4145.1.546
Yankees148.5139.8.529
Athletics153.0152.6.501
Jays145.4146.0.498
Twins156.2157.2.497
Indians157.2178.6.436
Tigers153.8179.7.423
Royals136.2159.6.423
Mariners123.9162.8.373
D'Rays108.0151.9.347

National League
TeamBaseRunsOppBRBR Pyth
Astros166.1121.4.645
Cubs167.0134.1.604
Marlins152.5132.1.568
Padres145.7128.5.558
Phillies139.3123.2.558
Cardinals164.3151.2.540
Dodgers148.2138.2.533
Mets133.9125.4.530
Brewers156.9155.3.505
D'backs146.6155.0.473
Braves135.6148.5.457
Rockies 158.1175.9.446
Pirates121.1137.3.441
Reds149.4173.4.427
Giants138.8179.9.377
Expos95.6140.8.336


Robert Dudek is also a Batter's Box author and can be contacted via e-mail.


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