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Last week, I presented THT's batted ball profiles for some of the most surprising batters in the majors. This week, let's talk about this year's most surprising pitchers.
As a reminder, a version of these tables will be published in this year's Hardball Times Annual, for every batter or pitcher who appeared in the major leagues. These particular tables are based on the format I used two years ago on my Baseball Graphs site. The key difference is that these run values are based on the absolute number of runs, instead of runs above or below average.
Our first example is a pitcher who's had quite a comeback this year. How has Brad Penny done it? By giving up the fewest runs per outfield fly in the majors (just .03).
Penny, Brad
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
590
0.16
0.36
0.03
34%
19%
43%
8%
19%
8%
23.7
28.6
4.6
-1.8
4.0
59.9
3.9
2005
738
0.16
0.39
0.06
29%
20%
47%
9%
17%
6%
26.3
43.5
16.1
-2.0
1.4
84.1
4.3
2006
813
0.19
0.40
0.05
33%
20%
43%
10%
18%
8%
36.1
48.1
12.6
-1.2
5.1
100.0
4.7
2007
681
0.03
0.39
0.03
28%
21%
49%
3%
17%
9%
4.5
39.3
6.9
-0.6
6.9
55.5
3.1
Avg.
706
0.14
0.39
0.04
31%
20%
46%
8%
18%
8%
21.9
39.7
9.9
-1.3
4.3
74.0
4.0
vs. MLB
-0.02
-0.01
0.02
0%
-1%
2%
-3%
1%
-2%
-3.1
-2.2
5.7
0.5
-1.3
Of course, the flyball giveth, and the flyball taketh away. Ervin Santana's collapse this year wasn't so much caused by giving up more outfield flies, but worse outfield flies. And his performance with line drives took a nose dive, too.
Santana, Ervin
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2005
583
0.15
0.45
0.06
38%
19%
37%
10%
17%
9%
25.0
36.6
9.0
-2.6
7.9
76.3
5.0
2006
846
0.15
0.30
0.06
40%
17%
38%
9%
17%
10%
37.4
32.2
14.2
-2.5
12.1
92.7
4.2
2007
526
0.25
0.39
0.07
40%
20%
35%
15%
17%
9%
37.8
29.8
9.9
-1.9
6.6
83.0
6.0
Avg.
652
0.18
0.37
0.06
39%
19%
37%
11%
17%
9%
32.8
32.1
10.9
-2.3
9.2
83.0
4.8
vs. MLB
0.02
-0.03
0.04
8%
-2%
-7%
0%
0%
0%
9.8
-6.6
7.0
-0.6
4.1
Tim Hudson has had a resurgence in Atlanta. As you can see, his groundball rate has jumped up quite a bit. And, oh yeah, fewer home runs per outfield fly.
Hudson, Tim
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
793
0.19
0.32
0.04
20%
18%
59%
6%
13%
7%
24.1
34.9
16.6
-1.9
7.8
81.0
3.9
2005
817
0.17
0.40
0.04
19%
21%
59%
12%
14%
9%
19.7
49.9
15.5
-0.8
12.6
97.2
4.5
2006
959
0.22
0.43
0.05
22%
18%
58%
14%
15%
9%
33.8
56.4
20.3
-1.8
14.5
123.9
4.9
2007
726
0.11
0.37
0.02
20%
17%
63%
5%
15%
7%
12.2
35.6
8.5
-0.2
4.2
59.8
3.1
Avg.
824
0.18
0.38
0.04
20%
18%
59%
10%
14%
8%
22.2
44.0
15.3
-1.1
9.8
90.1
4.2
vs. MLB
0.02
-0.01
0.02
-11%
-2%
16%
-1%
-2%
-1%
-7.0
-4.8
10.4
1.0
3.3
Josh Beckett has just been dominant, with the third-fewest runs given up on balls not in play (in other words, strikeouts and walks). The league leaders in that category are C.C. Sabathia (-7.9) and Johan Santana (-6.7).
Beckett, Josh
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
654
0.17
0.45
0.05
32%
17%
46%
11%
23%
9%
23.6
32.6
10.1
-2.2
3.6
69.4
4.0
2005
729
0.14
0.39
0.03
31%
22%
43%
9%
23%
9%
21.3
41.4
6.0
-2.4
3.7
70.3
3.7
2006
868
0.26
0.33
0.04
34%
17%
45%
17%
18%
10%
54.2
36.1
10.3
-2.3
10.9
109.5
4.8
2007
629
0.19
0.42
0.05
32%
15%
48%
6%
24%
5%
26.3
27.4
10.0
-2.4
-5.3
55.7
3.4
Avg.
720
0.19
0.39
0.04
32%
18%
45%
11%
22%
8%
30.7
34.5
9.0
-2.3
3.3
75.5
4.0
vs. MLB
0.03
-0.01
0.02
1%
-3%
2%
0%
5%
-1%
5.2
-8.2
4.7
-0.4
-2.4
The great Brandon Webb actually hasn't had his extreme groundball mojo working this year, and his increased walk rate has offset his increased strikeouts. But he's kept the fly balls in the park, and the impact of his line drives has been down.
Webb, Brandon
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
933
0.34
0.37
0.03
17%
17%
64%
16%
18%
14%
34.9
39.7
12.9
-1.1
26.4
112.3
4.6
2005
943
0.30
0.39
0.04
15%
19%
65%
17%
18%
6%
31.9
50.4
16.5
-0.7
1.6
98.9
4.0
2006
950
0.27
0.40
0.02
15%
17%
66%
13%
19%
6%
29.1
47.9
11.3
-0.8
-0.7
87.8
3.5
2007
758
0.19
0.35
0.03
20%
19%
60%
8%
21%
8%
20.2
33.9
8.5
-0.5
2.5
65.3
3.3
Avg.
896
0.28
0.38
0.03
17%
18%
64%
14%
19%
9%
29.5
42.9
12.2
-0.8
6.6
90.6
3.8
vs. MLB
0.12
-0.02
0.01
-14%
-3%
20%
3%
2%
-1%
-2.2
-10.3
6.9
1.5
-0.5
For those wondering how Jason Marquis has recovered the magic in Chicago, look no further than his groundball rate.
Marquis, Jason
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
874
0.27
0.38
0.03
24%
19%
56%
15%
16%
9%
41.7
45.1
12.0
-1.2
12.1
110.5
4.8
2005
868
0.20
0.38
0.03
29%
17%
51%
14%
12%
9%
39.3
44.3
9.6
-1.7
14.3
104.8
4.6
2006
870
0.22
0.43
0.05
36%
17%
43%
14%
11%
10%
54.3
48.9
13.8
-2.4
20.7
134.4
5.9
2007
670
0.20
0.37
0.02
31%
16%
50%
12%
13%
11%
30.8
28.9
5.3
-0.8
16.0
79.5
4.5
Avg.
821
0.22
0.39
0.03
30%
17%
50%
14%
13%
10%
41.9
41.7
10.3
-1.5
16.1
108.1
5.0
vs. MLB
0.07
-0.01
0.01
-1%
-4%
6%
3%
-4%
0%
12.8
-7.0
5.5
0.6
9.6
How about El Duque! Incredibly low line drive rate.
Hernandez, Orlando
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
359
0.13
0.43
0.03
37%
21%
35%
7%
23%
11%
11.1
20.5
2.7
-1.7
4.7
37.1
3.9
2005
568
0.17
0.47
0.02
33%
22%
39%
12%
16%
11%
23.4
41.8
3.7
-2.3
11.2
78.4
5.2
2006
699
0.23
0.41
0.05
41%
19%
34%
12%
23%
10%
41.6
36.0
8.1
-2.5
6.8
89.1
4.8
2007
530
0.17
0.36
0.01
41%
12%
41%
10%
21%
11%
24.8
14.8
1.9
-2.3
6.9
45.6
3.3
Avg.
539
0.18
0.42
0.03
38%
18%
37%
11%
21%
11%
24.5
26.8
4.2
-2.1
8.1
61.2
4.3
vs. MLB
0.02
0.02
0.01
7%
-2%
-7%
0%
4%
1%
5.4
-5.2
1.0
-0.7
3.8
So, here's a question: What's been wrong with Chris Capuano this year? According to the batted ball stats, his walk rate is up from last year, and the impact of his ground balls has been higher this year. Key stat: only 67% of his ground balls have been fielded for outs; the major league average is 75%.
Capuano, Chris
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
385
0.32
0.39
0.04
36%
19%
38%
18%
21%
11%
29.9
19.3
4.2
-1.8
5.5
56.5
5.6
2005
949
0.18
0.36
0.09
35%
21%
38%
13%
19%
11%
41.5
50.3
21.0
-4.0
15.8
124.4
5.0
2006
936
0.18
0.44
0.04
36%
20%
40%
11%
19%
6%
45.3
61.2
10.5
-2.6
-0.3
115.7
4.7
2007
562
0.22
0.42
0.09
32%
20%
44%
11%
20%
10%
26.8
31.5
14.8
-1.6
6.3
76.8
5.2
Avg.
708
0.21
0.41
0.06
35%
20%
40%
13%
19%
9%
34.4
38.8
12.1
-2.4
7.0
89.6
4.8
vs. MLB
0.05
0.01
0.05
4%
-1%
-4%
2%
3%
0%
9.4
-3.2
7.9
-0.6
1.4
The biggest difference between this year's Erik Bedard and the Bedard of last year is in the strikeout column. That has more than offset the higher rate of flyball runs he's allowed.
Bedard, Erik
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
633
0.15
0.39
0.10
36%
19%
38%
8%
19%
12%
24.0
32.7
16.7
-2.6
13.3
84.3
5.1
2005
606
0.11
0.37
0.04
32%
23%
40%
8%
21%
10%
14.1
34.7
5.7
-1.5
7.3
62.2
3.9
2006
844
0.14
0.40
0.04
28%
21%
49%
9%
20%
9%
22.4
49.8
11.4
-1.4
6.3
88.8
4.0
2007
705
0.20
0.43
0.02
33%
17%
48%
13%
31%
8%
27.5
30.6
3.4
-1.0
-4.9
55.7
3.0
Avg.
697
0.15
0.40
0.05
32%
20%
44%
9%
23%
10%
21.9
36.8
9.6
-1.6
6.2
73.4
4.0
vs. MLB
-0.01
0.00
0.03
1%
-1%
0%
-2%
6%
0%
-2.8
-4.5
5.4
0.2
0.6
Jeremy Bonderman has always been an enigma to me. Each of the last four years, his FIP has been significantly lower than his ERA. As you can see, a key reason is that his runs allowed per each type of batted ball has been above the major league average. Also, he has had a subpar LOB% each year. Will he ever turn those stats around?
Bonderman, Jeremy
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2004
793
0.18
0.43
0.05
31%
18%
48%
13%
21%
10%
28.9
41.3
11.7
-1.6
9.9
89.9
4.3
2005
801
0.16
0.47
0.05
30%
19%
48%
10%
18%
8%
28.4
52.7
15.1
-2.1
4.7
98.6
4.7
2006
903
0.22
0.41
0.03
29%
20%
48%
9%
22%
7%
40.6
50.4
9.1
-1.9
0.3
98.6
4.1
2007
660
0.20
0.48
0.06
31%
17%
49%
13%
21%
7%
29.2
38.9
13.8
-1.7
-0.7
80.1
4.6
Avg.
789
0.19
0.45
0.05
30%
19%
48%
11%
21%
8%
31.7
45.5
12.3
-1.8
3.5
91.4
4.4
vs. MLB
0.03
0.05
0.03
-1%
-2%
4%
0%
4%
-1%
3.7
-1.3
7.6
0.3
-2.8
Dustin McGowan has turned last year's line drives into this year's groundballs.
McGowan, Dustin
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2005
205
0.22
0.40
0.03
34%
19%
45%
14%
17%
12%
10.9
11.1
2.0
-0.3
4.5
29.1
5.4
2006
143
0.22
0.40
0.04
29%
26%
43%
7%
15%
19%
6.0
9.7
1.7
-0.2
6.8
23.9
6.4
2007
516
0.22
0.38
0.01
29%
16%
53%
10%
19%
9%
23.5
22.5
2.0
-0.7
5.6
52.7
3.9
Avg.
288
0.22
0.38
0.02
30%
19%
49%
11%
18%
11%
11.8
12.7
1.8
-0.3
7.0
33.1
4.4
vs. MLB
0.06
-0.01
0.00
-1%
-2%
6%
0%
1%
2%
1.6
-4.4
0.1
0.4
4.7
Key stats for Fausto Carmona?
- Outs per ground ball: Last year: 71%; This year: 76%.
- Outs per outfield fly (not including home runs): Last year: 65%. This year: 77%.
Carmona, Fausto
Net Runs per Ball
% of Batted Balls
%/OF
%/PA
Total Net Runs
BFP
OF
LD
GB
OF%
LD%
GB%
HR
K
BB
OF
LD
GB
IF
NIP
Tot
R/G
2006
340
0.35
0.34
0.06
25%
13%
60%
15%
17%
11%
20.9
10.9
8.7
-0.5
6.6
46.9
5.2
2007
682
0.25
0.34
0.02
20%
14%
64%
13%
15%
8%
26.6
25.2
8.1
-0.7
6.6
66.5
3.7
Avg.
511
0.28
0.34
0.04
22%
14%
63%
14%
16%
9%
23.0
17.5
8.5
-0.6
7.0
55.8
4.1
vs. MLB
0.13
-0.05
0.02
-9%
-7%
19%
3%
-1%
-1%
4.9
-12.8
5.4
0.7
2.9
Remember, you'll find these stats for every major leaguer in the Hardball Times Annual 2008. Look for more information about the Annual during the next two months.
Dave was called a "national treasure" by Rob Neyer. Seriously. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail.
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