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Ben Sheets is Awesomeby Jeff SackmannJanuary 24, 2007 In many ways, 2006 was a disappointing season for Ben Sheets, who only made 17 starts, a good number of them after the Brewers were out the NL Central race. It was the fourth time in his six-year career that he finished with a losing record, and his ERA was the highest it had been since 2003. It wasn't all bad, though: Sheets's core skills—throwing strikes and preventing bases on balls—were intact. In fact, he was as good as ever, allowing 11 walks and striking out 116 in 106 innings. As Dan Szymborski pointed out (comment #23), those numbers made for a one-of-a-kind performance: no other pitcher has ever thrown 50 or more innings in a season while striking out a batter per inning and walking fewer than one per nine. He Walked NobodyIn fact, either one of those two accomplishments is quite rare. Since World War II, only 11 pitchers have kept their BB/9 under 1.00 in a season with 100 innings or more. They've done it 19 times; Bob Tewksbury and Dan Quisenberry each managed it three times, while David Wells, Jon Lieber, Greg Maddux, and Bret Saberhagen did it twice: Year Last First IP ERA BB/9 1962 Fischer Bill 127.67 3.95 0.56 1963 Brown Hal 141.33 3.31 0.51 1982 Quisenberry Dan 136.67 2.57 0.79 1983 Quisenberry Dan 139.00 1.94 0.71 1984 Quisenberry Dan 129.33 2.64 0.84 1985 Hoyt La Marr 210.33 3.47 0.86 1990 Tewksbury Bob 145.33 3.47 0.93 1992 Tewksbury Bob 233.00 2.16 0.77 1993 Tewksbury Bob 213.67 3.83 0.84 1994 Saberhagen Bret 177.33 2.74 0.66 1995 Maddux Greg 209.67 1.63 0.99 1997 Maddux Greg 232.67 2.20 0.77 1999 Saberhagen Bret 119.00 2.95 0.83 2002 Lieber Jon 141.00 3.70 0.77 2003 Wells David 213.00 4.14 0.85 2004 Lieber Jon 176.67 4.33 0.92 2004 Wells David 195.67 3.73 0.92 2005 Silva Carlos 188.33 3.44 0.43 2006 Sheets Ben 106.00 3.82 0.93Not all of those 19 seasons were dominant ones, but it's tough to perform poorly when you allow so few free base runners. He Struck Out EverybodyIt's much more common to strike out a batter per inning, but it's still a sign of a great pitcher. Eight pitchers did it in 2006, while only three accomplished the feat in '05. Two of them—Johan Santana and Jake Peavy—did so both years: Year Last First IP ERA K/9 2005 Santana Johan 231.67 2.87 9.25 2005 Prior Mark 166.67 3.67 10.15 2005 Peavy Jake 203.00 2.88 9.58 2006 Cabrera Daniel 148.00 4.74 9.55 2006 Hamels Cole 132.33 4.08 9.86 2006 Kazmir Scott 144.67 3.24 10.14 2006 Liriano Francisco 121.00 2.16 10.71 2006 Martinez Pedro 132.67 4.48 9.29 2006 Peavy Jake 202.33 4.09 9.56 2006 Santana Johan 233.67 2.77 9.44 2006 Sheets Ben 106.00 3.82 9.85With the occasional exception of someone like Daniel Cabrera or Brandon Duckworth, who sneaked on to the list in 2002, pitchers who register a strikeout per frame are the most dominant of their kind. Generally, however, they aren't control freaks; here are the walk rates of the eight hurlers whose 2006 K/9 was above nine: First Last BB/9 Cabrera Daniel 6.32 Hamels Cole 3.26 Kazmir Scott 3.24 Liriano Francisco 2.38 Martinez Pedro 2.65 Peavy Jake 2.76 Santana Johan 1.81 Sheets Ben 0.93Even setting aside Cabrera's bizarre season, Sheets stands out. All At the Same TimeIt would be boring to look at the list of pitchers who have managed both feats: as I pointed out above, Sheets comprises the whole thing. But to put that accomplishment in perspective, let's relax the standards a bit, to eight or more strikeouts and two or more walks. Now we're looking at the cream of the crop. Only 39 pitchers have ever achieved that standard, more than half of whom did it in the last decade. The list is a little long, but I can't resist sharing it with you: Year Last First IP ERA BB/9 K/9 1998 Brown Kevin 257.00 2.38 1.72 9.00 1999 Foulke Keith 105.33 2.22 1.79 10.51 1999 Martinez Pedro 213.33 2.07 1.56 13.20 2000 Brown Kevin 230.00 2.58 1.84 8.45 2000 Martinez Pedro 217.00 1.74 1.33 11.78 2001 Martinez Pedro 116.67 2.39 1.93 12.57 2001 Mussina Mike 228.67 3.15 1.65 8.42 2001 Oswalt Roy 141.67 2.73 1.52 9.15 2001 Schilling Curt 256.67 2.98 1.37 10.27 2001 Vazquez Javier 223.67 3.42 1.77 8.37 2002 Martinez Pedro 199.33 2.26 1.81 10.79 2002 Schilling Curt 259.33 3.23 1.15 10.97 2003 Mussina Mike 214.67 3.40 1.68 8.18 2003 Schilling Curt 168.00 2.95 1.71 10.39 2003 Schmidt Jason 207.67 2.34 1.99 9.01 2004 Johnson Randy 245.67 2.60 1.61 10.62 2004 Schilling Curt 226.67 3.26 1.39 8.06 2004 Sheets Ben 237.00 2.70 1.22 10.03 2005 Johnson Randy 225.67 3.79 1.87 8.42 2005 Martinez Pedro 217.00 2.82 1.95 8.63 2005 Santana Johan 231.67 2.87 1.75 9.25 2005 Sheets Ben 156.67 3.33 1.44 8.10 2005 Vazquez Javier 215.67 4.42 1.92 8.01 2006 Santana Johan 233.67 2.77 1.81 9.44 2006 Schilling Curt 204.00 3.97 1.24 8.07 2006 Sheets Ben 106.00 3.82 0.93 9.85It's no surprise that many of the same names—Santana, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Jason Schmidt, among others—show up multiple times. Schilling did it four times, Pedro five. Incidentally, the only player before Pedro to do it twice was Sandy Koufax. Roger Clemens managed the feat in 1984, but hasn't since. As you might have noticed, Sheets was the only pitcher to show up on the list in each of the last three years. Admittedly, his performances weren't quite up to the level of his fellow list members, if only because he missed several starts in each of the last two seasons. But despite injuries, he's proven himself to be one of the very few pitchers in baseball to maintain this level of dominance. Getting What He DeservesNot only has Sheets had bad luck when it comes to run support, he was particularly poorly supported by his defense last year. Due to his remarkable strikeout and walk figures, combined with a modest home run rate, his FIP last year was a mere 2.48. His ERA of 3.82 was best among 2006 Brewers starters, and well below the league average of 4.49, but obviously it does not do him justice. In fact, this is yet another way in which his 2006 season was notable: only a few dozen pitchers in the modern era have ever had larger differences between their ERA and FIP, and among those with 100 IP, Sheets topped the unluckiest in 2006: Last First IP ERA FIP FIP-ERA Sheets Ben 106.00 3.82 2.48 -1.34 Moehler Brian 122.00 6.57 5.33 -1.24 Kim Byung-Hyun 155.00 5.57 4.38 -1.19 Loewen Adam 112.33 5.37 4.25 -1.12 Pineiro Joel 165.67 6.36 5.29 -1.07It seems likely that this is a fluke, if only because Sheets' FIPs have traditionally been close to his ERAs. Whether it was rotten luck or unusually bad defense, this difference was yet another way in which his 2006 campaign was unique. Looking AheadProjection systems generally try to avoid making judgements based on luck, so it's no surprise to find that PECOTA, ZiPS, and CHONE all predict that Sheets will be among the best pitchers in baseball next year. Each one anticipates Sheets will have a K/9 above 8.5, a BB/9 below 1.7, and an ERA no higher than 3.36. The question for 2007, as it has been for the last two seasons, is whether Sheets can stay healthy. PECOTA, the most optimistic in terms of playing time, gives him 177.2 innings pitched, a number that some Brewers fans would sell their soul to guarantee. Ben Sheets is an unusually dominating pitcher, and one who hasn't yet gotten his due from mainstream baseball fans. It would only take one more year like last year—minus the bad luck—to drastically change that. Jeff Sackmann consults for several major league teams. He runs the websites MinorLeagueSplits.com, CollegeSplits.com, BrewCrewBall.com and contributes to the fantasy magazine Heater. He welcomes comments via e-mail. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. Next Article: Business of Baseball Report>> <<Previous Article: The Changing Face of the NL West |
