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Blind resume 2013: a guy you’d never expect to be underrated

by Jeffrey Gross
March 21, 2013



Jeffrey Gross is an attorney (and die-hard Cubs fan) who currently resides in Green Bay, Wisconsin. In addition to writing for The Hardball Times, he also reviews tasty adult beverages as part of a side project titled "saBEERmetrics." He previously worked for The Daily Illini and Northern Star newspapers as a film critic and sportswriter (respectively). You can reach him by email at saBEERmetrics AT gmail DOT com.

Comments

Jacob Rolling Rothberg said...

So you wouldn’t take Joey Votto over Harper?

Posted 03/21  at  10:20 AM
AJ said...

Gimme Jered Weaver, Joey Votto, and Clint Barmes over Harper any day.

Posted 03/21  at  11:09 AM
Greg Simons said...

AJ is right.  How could anyone overlook Clint Barmes, five-category stud?  He’s a $50 ballplayer!

Posted 03/21  at  11:28 AM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Jacob:

Votto is the safer pick, but I see their value as pretty comparable. Votto has the AVG upside, while Harper likely has a SB edge. Votto is the better snake draft pick first but he’s both worth $10-25 more than harper

Posted 03/21  at  01:17 PM
Joey D said...

Beware the sophomore slump. Remember the Eric Hosmer and Brett Lawrie hype last year. Neither matched their numbers from the previous year. Also, Harper’s b.a. dropped in the 2nd half last year. Just food for thought.

Posted 03/21  at  06:21 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...

Perhaps, but I don’t buy the “sophomore slump” curse argument, particularly as it pertains to successful extended debuts by players that are very young and well within that magical age range of 21-24

Posted 03/21  at  06:59 PM
Jon L. said...

Upton & CarGo have demonstrated greater ability in the past than the single season you cherry-picked above, and Jones and especially McCutchen would look plainly superior if you had cherry-picked the same season for each of them.  Meanwhile, Heyward’s sophomore season demonstrates exactly why people are cautious about drafting Harper over more certain production.

Harper has great upside, but since he has less than a season’s worth of experience, he has much greater downside (in the short term) than the more proven commodities to whom you’re comparing him.

Posted 03/21  at  07:47 PM
Jeffrey gross said...

Admittedly Harper has more “risk” in that he is unproven, but regression can happen to any player and I’ll often take the younger, legit player at a lower cost.

I do not believe the sophomore slump is a real thing. Some conspiracy of bad luck and overproducing rookies with minimal track record masques variation in m unscientific opinion. Does anyone have a link to research on the topic? (comparing soph to rookie versus any other year to year variation)

Posted 03/21  at  08:14 PM
Jeffrey gross said...

Also, i think the real issue to establishing a realistic baseline for younger players. Hard to peg accurate mle, but younger has higher project ability traditionally.

Posted 03/21  at  08:15 PM
Salvatore said...

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Posted 03/23  at  02:00 AM
Salvatore said...

Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article.
I’ll be sure to bookmark it and come back to read more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I’ll definitely
return.

Posted 03/23  at  02:00 AM
eephus said...

uh…JoeyD:

i guess it’s true to say that harper’s batting tailed off in the second half…except…that if you look at the month by month splits…he cratered for a month or so, and then began picking it up, with increased power…leading to a really strong final month, during a pennant race.

um.  there’s cause for concern there?  really?  looks more like a guy making adjustments to the adjustments, in season.  that’s a good thing, not a bad one…

Posted 03/23  at  02:01 PM
Tom said...

You would really take Harper over Cano or Tulo?

Posted 03/23  at  07:18 PM
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