November 20, 2009
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Brian Bannister’s new approachby Harry PavlidisJuly 28, 2009 Brian Bannister, a right-handed starter for the Kansas City Royals, revealed the key to his recent success: PITCHf/x. Bannister has studied the data, after a demotion to Triple-A, and found out he already had the tools to succeed, if he put them together the right way. In a recent interview with a Kansas City sports radio station (810 WHB), Bannister spent nearly 10 minutes talking about PITCHf/x and how he uses it. The interviewYou can listen to or download the interview in a new window. One comment at Tom Tango's blog included a brief transcription of a key piece of the interview: I know how the numbers work. I know how OBP works. I know all the numbers that will never be printed in the newspaper. They're slowly working their way on to major league scoreboards. But, how the game really works, it's not what you see out there, and it’s not about short term emotions in games. It's numbers behind numbers… it's how the game works. Here are some of my takeaways from the podcasted interview:
By studying the "numbers behind the numbers," Bannister has discovered a technique that should make him a solid starter for years to come. Naturally, I want to look at the numbers myself and see what he's doing with my own eyes. His stuffFirst step was to classify Bannister's pitches. I stuck with 2009, although I can go back to 2007 and 2008. And, well, I did. I won't go into detail, but Bannister did indeed throw lots of four-seam fastballs, and even two-seam sinkers. His slider has been shelved (I found four in one start in May, that's all). What I found for 2009 was pretty much what I expected. A four-seam fastball (F4), a change-up (CH) that is not much "change" in terms of velocity, the cutter (FC), a curveball (CU) and the aforementioned slider (SL).
Here's what that all looks like in a spin movement chart. From the catcher's view, measured in inches, it shows the movement of the pitch caused by spin. The vertical component is a reflection of the back- or top-spin on the pitch. A zero on either axis (pfx_x, pfx_z) would be the same as a pitch only affected by gravity. Click to enlarge. Key: Blue (CH) Yellow (F4) Green (FC) Coral (CU) Black (SL)  These flight paths may be more intuitive, you know, if you're not a PITCHf/x nerd like Bannister.   Reading the tea leaves, I like Bannister's release points. He seems to come more over the top with the fastball and curveball, thereby maximizing the back- and top-spin effect he's going for. That rising fastball and sinking curveball may not be his favorite pitches, but he may be eking out every last bit he can from them. Checking Bannister's workWell, Mr. Bannister, you are doing what you said you are doing. Indeed, the man is throwing tons of cutters.  Bannister described the power change as an extreme ground ball pitch, his cutter as a mediocre ground ball pitch, and his fastball as an extreme fly ball pitch.  Check, check and check. How do the pitches measure up against Bannister's own benchmarks. He compared his change-up to Webb's sinker, and his cutter (in some regards) to Lowe's.
The numbers speak for themselves. While he's not an elite, front of the rotation (when healthy) starter, Bannister has wisely applied things he's learned from guys who are elite. It was mentioned in Tom Tango's thread that Bannister would make a great broadcaster or pitching coach. I agree, but I get the feeling we're going to being waiting several years before he's ready for his next career. References and Resources Thanks to "Nick" for the transcription. PITCHf/x data from MLBAM's Gameday Pitch classifications by the author Harry Pavlidis admits he has a baseball problem. He also writes for Beyond the Boxscore, Out of the Ivy and his own blog, Cubs f/x. Feedback, questions and comments are appreciated - harrypav@gmail.com
Peter Jensen said...
Great article Harry. Wonderful graphs. Concisely conveys all the relevant information. Posted 07/28 at 08:17 AM
Mike said...
Great article. I love how being good at math - or really, just actually CARING about the math - is going to allow this guy to pitch for probably 5 to 10 more years than he otherwise would have, and will end up earning him $50 million more than he would have made if he continued to stick to his prior philosophy and was a 5.00+ ERA pitcher. Posted 07/28 at 08:53 AM
Dave Allen said...
Great read Harry. And that is an incredible interview. My favorite part is how he understands he is at bet a league average pitcher, but that provides a lot of value anyway. Posted 07/28 at 09:18 AM
behindthepen said...
I took a look at Banny when he faced the Sox a couple of weeks ago. Posted 07/28 at 09:22 AM
sean said...
i agree with the other commenters here. it’s great to see a baseball player take a look at the scouting tools/data that are available out there today and not only NOT disparage the “stat geeks”, but use it to his (money-making and competitive) advantage. he knows that he’s never going to be a phenom like tim lincecum, so it seems like he’s intent optimizing the talent he does have. and realizes that being a 100 era+ pitcher has a bunch of value if he can pile up innings. i’m a tigers fan, but i will root for bannister succeed because he gets it. he’s a smart guy and willing to use every available tool to improve his pitching. hopefully he becomes a broadcaster after he retires, because it certainly seems like he could provide just a TON of insight to those of us who aren’t out there playing the game every day. Posted 07/28 at 10:36 AM
Steve C said...
I wonder if Poz has stopped smiling yet? I was looking at the run values on Fangraphs the other day and noticed that his FB and CU are the only two pitches showing a positive run value. What is being classified as a FC and SL there have a negative effect. The possibility exists for Banny to go another step and attempt to figure out what he is doing differently on the pitches classified as FC and SL to make them come out more like his FB. Another area that could show improvement for him is adjusting his approach for lefties and righties. I can’t remember which but it seems to me that he should be favoring the CU to one and the CH to the other. He does quite well against righties as it is now though. One last thing about Banny and Pitch/FX. We finally have a pitcher that may log where he is trying to throw the ball and P/FX is recording where it actually wound up. That could be some pretty powerful stuff. Posted 07/28 at 10:46 AM
Andy said...
Oh my God I’m in love with Brian Bannister. Instead of trading him away, the Mets should’ve introduced him to Maine and Ollie Perez. And I’m stunned a team as backwards-thinking as the Royals can have someone like Bannister, who clearly lives in his mother’s basement, on their team. Posted 07/28 at 11:16 AM
Harry Pavlidis said...
FG is using the raw pitch classifications from Gameday. Using my own classifications (and inverting the values since FG uses positive RV as “good for pitchers” instead of the negative/actual value) Cutter 0.647 He only threw four sliders, but those were worth more than 5 runs per 100 pitches, as if that means anything at all. Posted 07/28 at 11:19 AM
James said...
The new market inefficiency: Taking players with the “tools” and making them change their approach according to the numbers. It’s likely that plenty of big-league players have the tools to be average to above average performers, but aren’t deploying them in a maximally productive way. I love this! Posted 07/28 at 11:31 AM
Steve C said...
That power change up is quite the pitch. Posted 07/28 at 11:42 AM
Sky Kalkman said...
Great article. One thing I wonder is if we have enough performance data to really know if Banny will be effective going forward. Also, will everybody be throwing a cutter in two years? Is it really that easy? Was Mo just ahead of the curve? Given that the pitch is so straight, why is it so effective? Will it be less effective as hitters see more of them? Posted 07/28 at 12:08 PM
Harry Pavlidis said...
The cutter/sinker combo is tough to beat. For example, in a game I’d rather forget, in the 2008 playoffs against the Dodgers, Carlos Zambrano was working both sides of the plate with both pitches. It was fantastic. The defense behind him was another story. Posted 07/28 at 12:47 PM
Harry Pavlidis said...
@James could this be the first known evidence of “mental scrappiness” ? Posted 07/28 at 12:49 PM
Steve C said...
Or is this simply an intangible finally being tangiblized? Posted 07/28 at 01:01 PM
Matt Lentzner said...
“Power” Change huh? Kind of a contradiction in terms if you ask me. IMHO, it’s a sinker, plain and simple at only 4mph off his fastball speed. I’m dying to know what grip he is using. I wonder if the novelty of the cutter is going to wear off after a couple more years. If Bannister is smart he will continue to monitor his PITCHfx stats and continually adjust his approach. Anyway, great article Harry. There’s obviously an unexplored land of statistical scouting/coaching out there. Posted 07/28 at 01:12 PM
Harry Pavlidis said...
Don’t die Matt. Just listen to this interview/watch the slide show http://www2.tbo.com/static/photo_gallery/james-shields-art-change/ Posted 07/28 at 01:41 PM
Alex Krolewski said...
Bannister’s getting a lot more popups on his four-seamer than on any of his other pitches. Do the fly balls hit off his four seamer have a lower BABIP than fly balls hit off his other pitches? That is, are some of the fly balls just long pop ups that made it to the outfield? Posted 07/28 at 01:43 PM
Kyle Boddy said...
Excellent post, Harry. I have nothing to add because you were thorough, as usual. Posted 07/28 at 01:58 PM
Nick Steiner said...
You’re welcome Harry. Great article anyways. I wonder if Bannister is taking the “averages” *too* far? Some guys will definitely hit better against cutters than 4seamers and so on. It seems seems like by pitching to the averages, he is essentially giving up on being anything more than an average pitcher. And while that is okay for him, a league average pitcher is somewhat valuable, he probably has the potential to be better. Posted 07/28 at 01:59 PM
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It’s nice to see that Bannister is benefiting from PITCHf/x. Another outcome might be that he can see what is wrong, but is powerless to fix it.