Building backwards?
by Derek AmbrosinoSeptember 26, 2012
Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.
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Building backwards?by Derek AmbrosinoSeptember 26, 2012 Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com. Comments
Scott said...
I do believe you are basically outlining “LIMA”: low investment mound aces. if it’s 5x5 h2h then this is a very sound strategy since you’ll probably have a leg up in ERA/WHIP/SV so long as you make your minimum innings. You’ll spend late(r) picks on bullpen aces and hopefully draft a killer offense by eschewing big name SP’s in the first 10-15 rounds. Posted 09/26 at 11:44 AM
Derek Ambrosino said...
Scott, I don’t want to open this can of worms again because the definition of “LIMA” has been discussed here many times, and suffice to say that it is a bit contested. Overall, I’m somebody who works on LIMA principles, though I may not actually execute the exact plan as originally conceived. That said, I think there are two characteristics here that distinguish it from LIMA proper. One, you are not deprioritizing elite pitching. In fact, you will most certainly have to spend at least 1 pick in the top 100 on a pitcher. You’re just buying elite closers instead. Perhaps instead of selecting starters in rounds 5, 10, 14, 18, and 20, plus relievers in round 9, 13, 17, and 21 (something that might resemble a typical draft of mine), the first two or three pitchers you draft are relievers. Two, the efficacy of the LIMA plan is likely to change as the depth and replacement level of starting pitching does… not to mention the gap between the adequate LIMA archetype and the truly elite SP. I’m not sure the textbook LIMA approach has been tested extensively and had the results of those tests discussed publicly in the many years since Shandler named it and its foundation penetrated the casual fantasy baseball circle. So, I’m not sure this actually is LIMA. And, I’m not sure LIMA’s merits have been robustly and completely evaluated in the current age of more highly-skilled casual gamers and even further evolved expert analytics and strategy. Posted 09/26 at 02:33 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
...The other novel thing about this approach is that it places a premium on the exact players who most experts consider the most overvalued - closers. In a sense one of the questions this method asks is whether it is easier to find breakout closer/reliever studs late/on the wire, or easier to find starters. We drafted Chapman, for example. But, we also drafted Marshall (he was the first closer we took). So, this plan would have likely yielded a similar result had that switch never happened. ...Chapman didn’t NEED to become a closer, but he did need to be a complete beast. Posted 09/26 at 02:43 PM
Will H. said...
Brad is the best streamer - and probably bests FBB player - I’ve played against, but this year questions one assumption, that elite rate stats are a given with this strategy. Streaming has led, this year at least, to good but not great standings, and when you combine three of them (k/9 is really a rate stat) you are hurt if the winds blow the wrong way even if you are a really smart streamer. In our 5x5 he is second (and, in full disclosure, I am worse than that) but better rate stats is the biggest issue (apart from the #1 player’s team remaining insanely healthy). So there is some risk there, which might lend credence to the suggestion that it is a place/show strategy… making it still more profitable, but a no-doubt low ratio ace could help mitigate the vagaries to ratios that streaming involves. Posted 09/26 at 08:59 PM
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Haven’t had time to read this yet, but the answer to the question is yes. I’ve done it multiple times.
I’ve also done the spend 90% of the budget on pos players and won AND I’ve spent 75% of a budget on pitching and came 4 runs short of winning.