March 22, 2010
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Clone Wars: Aaron Hill and Justin Morneau???by Troy PattersonSeptember 08, 2009 Check out more work from Troy at RotoSavants and Fire Brand of the AL. You can contact him with questions or recommendations email me
Troy Patterson said...
It’ll be interesting to see if pitchers respect his power next year and walk him more. I haven’t seen any signs of it this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=6104&position=2B&page=3&type=full You can see this year his BB% has been in a fairly tight range just above 5%. I would be surprised if it climbed to much. Posted 09/08 at 02:28 PM
Brian M said...
I’d love to see an Andre Ethier vs. Adam Lind Clone Wars article. I have both in an important league as keepers, and am curious if I can expect a repeat in my OF next season. Posted 09/08 at 03:58 PM
Troy Patterson said...
I wrote on Andre Ethier last week here http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/clone-wars-raul-ibanez-and-andre-ethier/ I think you can see there I am pretty confident in his abilities. I will see if their is a good choice to compare with Adam Lind though. Posted 09/09 at 02:15 PM
Millsy said...
Oopsies. My bad. Thanks for checking on Lind. He’s one I’m really curious about long term, as he may only qualify for DH after next season. Posted 09/09 at 02:23 PM
Tom said...
Interesting article. However, does Hill’s age (27 all season) and the fact he has now shown much nmore power over a full season than just about any 2b not named Utley. Some interesting names pop up on the sim score..Michael Young, Barry Larkin, Russell Martin. Some not so favorable ones that pop up are Yuni Betancourt and Tadahito Iguchi. With that being said, I don’t expect a Dustin Pedroia type drop-off (.57 in OPS, 30% less homers), however, I do think Hill is a type that needs to be accepted for what he is: Posted 09/10 at 09:43 AM
Troy Patterson said...
I’m not saying he will be worthless, but in his case you have to regress his numbers going into 2010. Hill is having his first season with an ISO over .200 right now and with the hittracker data I suspect he will regress more to his career rate around .150-.170 I worry about him in 2010 mainly because his value is almost entirely tied to his homers. He is currently ranked 4th using baseballmonster.com while having the most homers at second base. If he lost ~10 homers next year he also loses approximately 10 runs and 10 RBIs. That makes him Jose Lopez from this season and more of a top 10 instead of a top 5. Posted 09/10 at 10:31 AM
Tom said...
I guess the point that I am making is more of an elemental one. To suggest this is a career year for Hill is besides the point. What I am trying to say is that Hill is in the prime of his career. He will be turning 28 next year, and a typical career path would indicate more power, not dramatically less. Those “just making it” homers should gain a bit more distance as Hill’s body matures. No? Posted 09/10 at 11:30 AM
Troy Patterson said...
Let’s assume the hittracker data is showing a power increase and not a season of luck. He has to contend with injuries next year and also pitchers attempting to avoid him (perhaps an increased OBP). I’m not saying it’s impossible to repeat, but there is so much more data to suggest a regression than continued production at this level. Just looking at Brandon Phillips and Jimmy Rollins we can see infielders who reached 30 homers in 27-28 age seasons and experienced regression in the following seasons. Posted 09/10 at 12:54 PM
Tom said...
Touche. Just a quick question then: One of your prime points in your article was based on Hill losing value because his R output would probably drop 10-15% if he doesn’t hit 30 or more homers. With your last statement that pitchers may pitch around him more, his OBP would seemingly go up. Doesn’t that portend more Rs, not less? Posted 09/10 at 01:59 PM
Tom said...
And I seemingly may be misunderstanding this, but it seems you are equating scoring runs as a skill, which some believe is more an indicator based on the overall lineup composition and quality on an everyday basis. Posted 09/10 at 02:02 PM
Troy Patterson said...
You are correct that his OBP would go up with pitchers pitching around him, but I don’t think he would suddenly be a .360+ OBP type of guy. Scoring runs is not a skill directly, but getting on base is. Scoring runs is dependent on lineup factors, but the players OBP also has a lot of influence. If Hill hit in the same lineup slot all year but had a .370 OBP he would score more runs than the Hill with a .330-.340 OBP. Posted 09/10 at 02:12 PM
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Its really funny how close their numbers are this year.
Couple of notes on Hill though, I think his BABIP is lower because of the number of “Just Enough” homers he’s hit(instead of fallign in for a double as they are down alot for him this year). He’s not slow per say, just not a good basestealer.
It will be interesting next years if pitchers get “TEH FEAR” with him being like one of 2 hitters to worry about in the Jay’s lineup next year, may see an increase in his walks as he does have a good eye, just that pitchers weren’t afraid to throw him strikes.
I still like Zobrist over him next year though