Clone Wars: Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw
by Troy PattersonNovember 16, 2009
Check out more work from Troy at the Boston Red Sox blog Fire Brand of the AL. You can contact him with questions or recommendations email me or @TroyPatterson
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Clone Wars: Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershawby Troy PattersonNovember 16, 2009 Check out more work from Troy at the Boston Red Sox blog Fire Brand of the AL. You can contact him with questions or recommendations email me or @TroyPatterson Comments
Rick said...
Isn’t Sanchez around 6 years older than Kershaw? Talk about apples and oranges…. Posted 11/16 at 09:10 AM
Troy Patterson said...
@Scott - You’re right he did have a K/BB split from the first half to the second half of 1.72 to 2.33. It seems that it had more to do with his strikeouts though than his walk rate. @Rick - I don’t see why it’s apples to oranges. I’m not trying to say these are the exact same player and will go on to have similar careers. Kershaw should have many more years in the majors especially if he stays in LA, but the fact remains so far their time in the majors have been fairly close according to statistical analysis. My only presumption is that in 2010 you could do just as well by waiting for Sanchez instead of overpaying for Kershaw. Posted 11/16 at 09:51 AM
Bob said...
Based on the nature of pitching (particularly for power lefties) and health risk, their age is almost irrelevant at 26 or younger. Posted 11/16 at 10:12 AM
obsessivegiantscompulsive said...
Isn’t “SF a Pitcher’s Park” an old, expired truism? Bill James handbook the last few years had the park about neutral, same with BP. In fact, James latest has Runs at 105 for the 2009 season, 103 for 2007-2009. Time to give that one a rest. Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium is still one of the most extreme pitcher’s parks around. Jeff Weaver and Chan Ho Park owes tens of millions of dollars each to the park for hiding how below average they were when pitching outside of that park. I’m sure they are not the only two (Boras can also thank the park too). Bill James also has Dodger Stadium as one of the bigger dampers on HR hit, particularly RHH, who makes up the vast majority of hitters. I think that his level is unsustainable too, but perhaps it would be useful to see what the historic HR/FB% is at Dodger Stadium. I think that it should also be noted that having a high rate of walks is not necessarily worse than not being able to strike out hitters. Derek Carty did a study where he studied pitchers with K/BB of over 2.0 and found that those who achieved that with a high K/9 but high W/9(like Sanchez and Kershaw) had a better average ERA than those who had a very low W/9 but also low K/9. I think that ERA projection for Sanchez will prove to be too high. It is based on his past performances, but his past performances include a lot of time where his struggle was explainable. In 2008, his ERA flew up once he tired out, that was his first season as a starter. Before that, his ERA was in the high 3’s. In 2009, he was horrible to start the season because he stupidly copied some mechanics from Johan Santana, who is much shorter than Sanchez, which screwed him up until he stopped doing that. Once he had the no-hitter, even excluding that game, he again had a sub-4 ERA the rest of the season. I think the no-hitter for him was the equivalent of the Wizard handing a diploma to the Scarecrow and suddenly he’s smart. He always had it in him but never quite believed or was that confident of it. I think 2010 could be the year he puts together a good first half with a good second half and have a great season. Good conclusion on Sanchez, perhaps if you didn’t throw in Kershaw as a similar comparison, but as an example of a pitcher who should be fully valued, the other commenter would not have been so snarky. Posted 11/16 at 12:52 PM
Troy Patterson said...
I want to clarify something that I left unclear. My reference of “AT&T park being not friendly to hitters” was meant to refer to home runs only. The park is more of a hitters park, but the park does slightly lower home run totals. Posted 11/16 at 12:58 PM
razor said...
Simply check out Sanchez’ numbers from the stretch position if you want to understand what’s holding him back. He’s a completely different animal out there once that happens. It’s also the reason SF has always been reluctant to use him as a power arm out of the bullpen. It’s unreal what happens out there when a runner reaches against this guy. The typical Sanchez start has him sailing thru 4 to 5 IP, then he inevitably has that inning where the first two hitters reach. From there all hell usually breaks loose and he’s in the clubhouse within the next 10 minutes. Simply put, he can’t hold runners on and worse, he loses location and focus when anyone reaches base. Before you know it his pitch count is closing on 100 and he’s turned a gem into a mess, especially against an average or above offense… Posted 11/16 at 05:14 PM
Troy Patterson said...
I don’t see the evidence for any lack of skill from the stretch. I actually find he is better than the rest of the league. In his career his K/BB with the bases empty is 1.95, but in the stretch he is 2.08. The league average in 2009 was 2.28 with the bases empty and dropped to 1.77 with runners on. His 2009 numbers match this. If anything it is his lefty/righty splits that show the trouble. In 2009 he had a 3.31 K/BB against lefties, but only a 1.79 against righties. Kershaw was even more so with a 6.55 against lefties and only a 1.41 against righties. Posted 11/16 at 08:09 PM
Scott said...
That 6.55 K/BB against lefties is very telling for Kershaw. I actually don’t mind pairing Sanchez and Kershaw in an article like this; Their numbers and issues are very different, but in the off-season, putting two talented pitchers in an article like this isn’t a horrible idea. Plus, there’s some great some great thoughts and insight in the comments. That thing about Sanchez trying to ape Santana was something I hadn’t heard, and that puts the first half of ‘09 into perspective. On an unrelated note, I’m glad I’m not the only person enjoying off-season fantasy baseball commentary. Thanks to THT for keeping these articles going. Posted 11/17 at 12:11 AM
Phil said...
The difference between these players is how many hits they give up! Kershaw’s H/9 was somewhere in the 6.25 range - If he can keep that up it truly is apples and oranges here. Even if he can’t put up 6 H/9 again I have faith his walks are on the way down and this guy is going to continue getting better year after year. I do not have that same feeling toward Sanchez. The only scoring formats that would make Sanchez a value pick would be ones that ignore ERA, WHIP, H, W, L… the list goes on. If your league has a bias toward K, BB, or K/BB then yes Sanchez is a value pick - maybe. Posted 11/18 at 07:03 PM
Troy Patterson said...
@Phil - Why would you look to H/9? His BABIP is down to .274 and when it returns to normal he will have a similar H/9 to Sanchez. H/9 is a function of K/BB and also team defense. Posted 11/18 at 07:09 PM
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Weren’t Sanchez’s numbers vastly improved during the second half, and after his no-hitter?