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College World Series odds: Omaha day 7

by Jeff Sackmann
June 19, 2009

We're down to the final four. Last night, Arizona State eliminated North Carolina, setting both of the matchups for today's (and possibly tomorrow's) games. Texas and LSU are undefeated, meaning that their opponent will have to beat them twice to advance to the championship, but they only have to win one. As you can tell from the odds below the jump, I give the Sun Devils a much better chance of advancing than I do the Razorbacks.

With Virginia out of the tournament, far and away the best team on paper is Arizona State. Because they have to win two against Texas, my simulator doesn't give them an overwhelming chance of winning, but if they do make it to the championship round, they will be the favorite.

Click through for the full odds. 
Team             FinalTwo  Champ
  
Texas               64.2%  32.0%  
Arizona State       35.8%  22.9% 
 
Arkansas            12.2%   3.2%  
Louisiana State     87.8%  41.9%


Jeff Sackmann is the creator of MinorLeagueSplits.com. With Kent Bonham, he founded CollegeSplits.com, which you can follow on Twitter for bite-sized snacks of minor league and college stats.


Nitpicker said...

Sun Devils… not Wildcats.

Posted 06/19  at  11:54 AM
Bob Timmermann said...

I think it’s a mental block. He’s said Wildcats before.

Posted 06/19  at  12:21 PM
Donny Walton said...

I am not sure I would trust any odds from someone who doesn’t even know the mascot of one of college baseball’s top programs.  I would personally place LSU at better than 50% odds to win it all.

Posted 06/19  at  12:32 PM
Jeff Sackmann said...

Nitpicker: thanks.  It is indeed a mental block.

Donny Walton: I’m pretty sure that the quality of my analysis is directly related to my awareness of mascot names.  You probably shouldn’t trust anything I publish, especially if it runs counter to your personal conclusions.

Posted 06/19  at  06:20 PM
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