Defending Cincinnati’s Rolen trade

Oh, I think they definitely need help in left field, but there is going to be a fair amount of outfielders available for that. It’s possible they could ink Jason Bay—but in any event, I don’t see a LF standing in their way.

The rotation is a big question mark, especially without Volquez, but they already have their top three starters. If they can squeeze out a trade or free agent for a productive #4 and then see an emergence of Homer Bailey or at least hold the #5 position steady with the rest of baseball, I can’t see how the Reds can’t make a mini-run.

As comprised, the Reds would not win the division. But there’s no way the Reds are done making moves.

Hypothetically, say the Reds do the following:

Sign Johnny Damon to be their LF, giving them Damon-Taveras (ew)-Bruce with Gomes in reserve.

Sign Orlando Cabrera or Marco Scutaro to be their starting SS (a very distinct possibility, but even an Adam Everett signing wouldn’t kill them).

(You’ll notice I’ve excluded Holliday, Bay, Ankiel, Abreu, Dye, Vlad and Miguel Tejada here even though they are also definites: I’m trying to make a point that even minimal cash outlays will have an impact.)

Sign Doug Davis and Brad Penny.

(Other options: Erik Bedard, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, John Lackey, Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Brett Myers, Carl Pavano, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf).

You telling me that that’s not a club that can contend?

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we can see that they will drop about $10 million after the year. (This is with EdE, not Rolen, so it could be closer to dropping $12.)

To me, that’s enough to sign Scutaro (10M/2Y?).

Given Abreu got a $5 mil outlay from the Angels this past year, I feel comfortable projecting Damon at $5M.

So that takes care of their offense. I think ownership could be sold on outlaying another $8-10 million on one or two starting pitchers. If you deal Arroyo, then you definitely get two starting pitchers out of it.

I’m not saying it’s a certainty, but I do see the potential there, and it’s potential that wasn’t there without Rolen. Just my two cents.

I am hoping they can add Holiday or Bay next year. that would be a HUGE hole that would be filled and they could move Brandon to the #2 spot instead of him batting after Votto, Holiday(OR Bay) and Rolen would be way better protection. PLUS they need to get a decent pitcher to help the rotation like a Rich Harden, Brett Myers or a lefty like Randy Wolfe All this is a plus if they can move Arroyo or Harang.  I want the coaching staff to change too.. Pole isn’t that good as a pitching coach and Mario Soto or rick Peterson could help alot better. also a hitting coach like maybe Kevin Mitchell if he would take the job..
I also think Rolen was brought in as a starting piece of veteran leadership. Maybe the eyes for Walt to determine who to not bring back. AKA Gonzalez!! etc,,...

That is correct, I am taking out EdE. No reason to keep it in; the Reds aren’t paying it.

John Fay seems to think that the Reds are getting $4 million from the Blue Jays for next year, not $2. 

And I think Rolen simply wanted to get closer to home—he’s from Indiana.  The Reds were a good fit for his family late in his career.

Bob,

I was not trying to intimate that the Reds are paying Rolen less than EdE. However, it seems if what I was trying to say got lost in translation, both my original statement and the resulting comments.

I will try to simplify and clarify the situation:

The Reds looked at the acquisition of Rolen as a simple additional cost of $4.25 million, not $11 million or $9 million. (Or $2.25 million, if John Fay is correct.)

People are saying that paying Rolen $11 million to play for them next year is foolhardy. I’m saying that the Reds really only represent $4.25 more to them.

ummmm. . .

no one in the world thinks that having rolen at 3b is a bad thing.  He improves the team for next year, but in the reds case that may be the most meaningless piece of information ever. 

1. if the reds are better than they are slightly better and would still project to finish under .500.  So we just traded 2 good prospects and major league level hitter to go from 75 wins to 80 (if we are lucky)

2. We overpaid.  There is no way that the reds in the position that they are in, can afford to grossly overpay for assets.  Rolen, 34 year old rolen, almost 35 year old rolen is not worth a major league bat and 2 pitching prospects that are a virtual lock to be on the reds roster for many years to come. 

3. did i mention they overpaid.  I have no idea if the writer of this article pays any attention to who prospects are but ZACH STEWART will be a front of the rotation guy.  Zach Stewart himself was not worth Rolen in the state that the Reds are in.  6 yrs of a front end guy or a year and a half of a guy that may get you to 80 wins next year and maybe just maybe third place in one of the worst divisions in baseball. 

4. the reds have now committed 70,000,000 for next year without no starting shortstop, no fifth starter and only 1 person on the bench.  They have absolutely no flexibility next year at all.  not 1 dime.  oh wait u said the reds are getting relief.  that should put us at 68,000,000.  ............... much better.

There is not argument that holds any water for this to make sense for a team in this position with this payroll.  This was a stupid trade of epic proportions.

Ryan-

It has been confirmed that the Blue Jays are sending money to the Reds for Rolen’s 2010 contract.  The amount, however, is not certain.

This trade is terrible for the Reds without even considering the young pitchers they traded.

Evan, your math is wrong.  According to Cot’s, the Reds save money if they don’t pick up the options on Hernandez, Gonzalez and Weathers, but all but about $5M of that goes to increases to Harang, Phillips and Rolen - EdE.  The freed up money will be even further reduced after the inevitable increases to Votto and the other young players.  Therefore, if their payroll is going to be unchanged in 2010, they have about $5M to address two SP’s, a set-up RP to replace Weathers, a C, a SS and an OF plus bench depth.

Evan,

The Reds money the Reds are going to drop gets mostly eaten up by money they’ll spend on raises.

The only way they can sign FA’s is essentially by raising payroll.

I guess whether they do that or not is the “million dollar” question.