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June 20, 2013
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Early 2013 fantasy baseball top 300by Jesse SakstrupNovember 05, 2012 Jesse is a sociology major at Michigan State University, with a particular interest in social psychology. Contact him by email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), or via twitter @JesseSakstrup. Comments
Josh said...
Good list. Wonder about Brian Wilson and Soria (Romo seems high). Also, for better or worse, someone will nab Profar among the top 200 based on potential alone… (even if he only comes up in August) Posted 11/05 at 10:24 AM
Eric said...
No excuse for not having Tulo in the top 25. Lost any credibility after seeing that. Posted 11/05 at 12:30 PM
John said...
If he could stay on the field… Posted 11/05 at 01:13 PM
Andrew said...
after his crazy 2nd half performance, you still don’t like Chris Tillman Posted 11/05 at 01:18 PM
Jesse Sakstrup said...
@mrcar: If Hamilton begins the year in the majors, I think he would rank higher than Dee Gordon did last year. Hes still got a few things to work on, though. @Josh: Romo is ranked as if he will begin the year as the closer, but I only projected him for 26 saves. His contributions in ERA and WHIP move him above some of the closers that I have projected for more saves. If Brian Wilson is healthy to begin the year, or if there is any uncertainty to whether Romo is the closer or not, then there is no need to take him that high. We will learn a lot in the coming months. @Eric: Tulo is at #25, and where you take him is mostly contingent on risk-tolerance. If he stays healthy for 125 games, he will produce top-25 value or higher, but any less than that and you are probably losing value—if he plays 150 games, he is a steal there. Perhaps you could make a case why Tulo should be significantly higher, outlining why the reward far outweighs the risk, rather than making a condescending post about the entire list over the ranking of just one player. @Andrew: You could definitely make a case for Tillman as a top-300 player, or maybe even a bit higher than that, but he was a bit fortunate to have a .221 BABIP in 2012. Being that he is a flyball pitcher, he should be able to keep a BABIP lower than league average, but his career BABIP is .280 and his batted ball profile deviated little in 2012 from his career averages. His xFIP and SIERA each had his ERA over 4.00, but since he is a heavy flyball pitcher, he should outperform his DIPS some, in the way that a Matt Cain or Jeremy Hellickson does, but that still leaves a worry of heavy regression. We can take solace in his significant velocity spike and in his moderate swinging strike rate uptick, so there looks to be some room for some more strikeouts as his BABIP comes back up, but I did factor this into my projection. I think he will strikeout over 7.0 per 9 for the first time in his career. There is little difference between pick 250 and 300 in terms of expected value—drafting Tillman anywhere in that range would certainly be defensible, and maybe a bit higher if you believe strongly in him. Posted 11/05 at 03:02 PM
Scott said...
Surprised you ranked Dunn that low. Even though he faltered during the last 6 weeks, and his avg is poor, 80+ runs and 90+ RBI’s that late in the draft is a steal. Posted 11/05 at 03:46 PM
Jesse Sakstrup said...
Possibly, but his batting average is a serious issue. He has struck out nearly 35% of his at PAs over the past two seasons, so a return to the days when he hit .240+ looks unlikely (I have him projected to hit .225). Even with 87 runs, 41 HR, and 96 RBI he finished 161 (21st among 1B) on ESPN’s player rater, and since he only has 1B eligibility, he wasn’t even the 161st most valuable player when positional value is taken into consideration. You may not completely agree with ESPN’s player rater, but my formula valued him similarly and my projections have him as a corner infielder in a 12-team league. If you play in a league where owners draft power early and stolen bases can be had at a bargain, or easily found on the waiver wire, then his contributions are a bit more valuable, but not all leagues are like that. I would have no issue with anyone who wanted to take him in the 110-130 area, but drafting a guy like that restricts what you can do in other areas of the draft unless you ignore batting average and hope for the best—batting average is a category where you can have more success with that strategy than other categories, it should be mentioned. Posted 11/05 at 05:13 PM
Milby said...
Looks like you are buying into Rutledge in a big way. I am too, but was surprised to see you felt the same way. Posted 11/05 at 08:37 PM
Jesse Sakstrup said...
@Milby: Yeah I like him a lot. He could go 15/15 with a reasonable average. If it becomes clear that he will play everyday, he will move up a bit higher, too. Posted 11/06 at 02:22 AM
Jeff Gross said...
Looks good at first glance, though I think Starlin Castro is ranked a little high. Also think Edwin is a round or 2 too high as well, but thats just cause I dont 100% buy into his 2012. Here’s to hoping Kinsler bounces back major! Posted 11/10 at 04:37 PM
Jerry said...
I recognize Jeter had a fatastic rebound season in 2012 - amazing at the age of 110, but how long ca he continue being reasonably productive? Even now he is only strong in 2 categories (BA and runs), yet he still ranked as the 7th top ss in baseball on your list and the 86th best player overall. Is this expecting too much from Father Time? Posted 11/13 at 10:23 AM
Jesse Sakstrup said...
@Jerry: If Jeter doesn’t fall off completely, I think he will justify that draft position, and will probably be a value. Last year he had a line of 99/15/58/9/.316, which was good for 45th on ESPN’s player rater (which doesn’t give him credit for playing SS) and my formula rated him similarly. I think it is unfair to call Jeter a two category player since the SS position is still among the shallowest positions of all. His runs and batting average would be strong at any position and the other three categories aren’t complete albatrosses in relation to the majority of other shortstops. I am projecting some regression in every category for next year (95/11/54/9/.299), but seeing as the shortstop position is still pretty shallow, I think taking Jeter inside the top 90 is not only justified, but there is also potential profit at that spot. It is completely understandable and defensible for someone to pass on Jeter at that draft spot if they are worried about a complete collapse. Posted 11/13 at 03:23 PM
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Early indeed! Any fear a rookie like Billy Hamilton might be overlooked?