In SG's latest Diamond Mind projections blowout, a composite projection built from six different projection systems projects the Angels to about 88 wins on average, about eight more than the A's and a few more than that over the Mariners. Assuming, say, that Escobar is projected to be about three wins above replacement, missing a third of the season could cost the Angels a win or so. Probably not even that much, given that THT's projections have Joe Saunders, his likely replacement with a 4.60 ERA, which is a significant downgrade but still better than replacement.
So ultimately, this shouldn't be a big deal in the grand scheme of things other than narrowing their margin, both in terms of performance and ability to absorb injuries. This is a pretty different situation than the Red Sox with Josh Beckett, as they have a much smaller margin over the Yankees to begin with.
Bryan Tsao is the editor of The Hardball Times website. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions for both himself and the site via email.
