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May 25, 2013
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Fantasy valuation systems: adding more contextby Jesse SakstrupJuly 30, 2012 Jesse is a sociology major at Michigan State University, with a particular interest in social psychology. Contact him by email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), or via twitter @JesseSakstrup. Comments
Jesse Sakstrup said...
I don’t think he will hit 30 HR again, but I don’t think the power surge was a complete fluke. Scouts have remarked that there was a change in his swing that would portend an increase in power, but probably not quite 30. As far as steals, they tend to peak earlier, and begin to tail off (some) when players reach their late twenties. Valuing him is really tough, like you said. Oliver thinks he will produce like a 20/30/.300 type player the rest of the way, but with his injuries, it is tough to tell how it will effect his power. His projection is really volatile, but he makes for a good upside play if you have some ground to make up on some of the other teams in you league. Posted 07/30 at 02:06 PM
RaysFan4Real said...
Fantastic article - thanks Posted 07/30 at 09:20 PM
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Thanks - very interesting read. My most serious leagues are H2H, but this still provided a nice reality check when considering to deal a top player. The one player I have the toughest time placing a value on is most definitely Jacoby Ellsbury. Between the video-game like numbers last year and the injuries that wasted 2010 and 2012, I don’t know whether to expect a decline, an injury or a revert back to the fewer HR, more SB version of him. He’s getting to that age where a rapid decline could come naturally, let alone the effect the injuries have had. I think it’s safe to assume we’ll never see 30+ HR again, but is he still an elite force without them?