November 23, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. 
Rich Barbieri
John Barten Brian Borawski Craig Brown Evan Brunell David Gassko Jonathan Hale Brandon Isleib Chris Jaffe Max Marchi Bruce Markusen Harry Pavlidis Jeff Sackmann Dave Studeman Steve Treder Bryan Tsao Tuck! Dan Turkenkopf Colin Wyers Geoff Young John Brattain And here's the full roster.
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Get rich quick?by Colin WyersOctober 15, 2009 So on one hand we have Baseball Prospectus' playoff odds. According to them, the Phillies have a 67.6172% chance to win the NLCS; the Yankees have a 70.4483% chance to win the ALCS. Compare that to the current odds coming out of Vegas. The Phillies have an implied odds of about 48% percent to win the NLCS, while the Yankees have an implied odds of about 64% to win the ALCS. (Vegas odds are not entirely reflective of the actual odds, even under the best circumstances - they typically include a little extra to make sure Vegas makes money no matter who wins.) So who's right? I'd put my money (so to speak) on Vegas. In order for BP to be right about the Phillies chances, for instance, you'd have to reasonably expect the Phillies to go .583 against the Dodgers. The Phillies only went .574 in the regular season, and they played a lot of games against a lot of teams who aren't as good as the Dodgers. (More discussion about the issue here.) UPDATE: BPro has fixed some bugs in their calculations. Somehow the Yankees odds have gotten better. But the Dodgers-Phillies odds look almost exactly like the Vegas odds now. Colin Wyers knows exactly how much of a nerd he is. He is very interested in hearing about any other concerns you may have; you can reach him by e-mail, and he will try his best to respond in a timely fashion. He also blogs at Statistically Speaking. Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. |
