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May 19, 2013
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Hitters I’m buying low onby Mike SilverJuly 26, 2012 Returning from a brief hiatus, Mike is excited to be back at THT. Mike's former writing homes include FireBrandAL.com and StatSpeak.net, while his content has appeared on Fangraphs.com, ESPN.com, and others. A lifelong Red Sox fan native to New York, Mike loves to blend baseball and statistical analysis. Feel free to email him at mjasilver AT gmail DOT com. Comments
Ben said...
Well, I’ll give you credit. This is a slightly less useless article than the Pitchers to Sell High On comedy you wrote last week. (Cueto giving up 1 run in his last 15 IP at home, btw) Lind is a decent pick-up. However, if you’re in a league where he hasn’t been picked up, your league is asleep. Alvarez isn’t going to do anything except destroy your batting average. Presley is a bench player. Martinez is hurt and seems to have many holes in his swing. Dunn as a buy low? What’s he going to improve upon? If you trade for him you’re going to have to pay equal value and he’s going to perform at that value. It’s not like you’re going to toss Alex Presley at someone and they’re going to give you Dunn. At a minimum you’re trading away average for him, so you had better be coming from a position of power on that one. Posted 07/26 at 11:02 AM
Mike Silver said...
@AJ My error on that one. The article was written and submitted before the Marte call-up last night. Very bad timing. Posted 07/26 at 11:05 AM
Mike Silver said...
@Ben Ben, please read these articles more carefully before you comment. I won’t go into every individual player, but Lind is recommended as a trade target, not a waiver pickup. Alvarez is going to improve his Ks and BABIP. Dunn is going to improve his average by about 30 points. They are all buy lows by definition: their current acqusition cost is far lower than their actual value due to poor performance. Also, going back to the Cueto recommendation from last week—though its easy to single out a prediction with hindsight, the fact is, Cueto is not a good bet to continue his production. His strikeouts will be dropping as he simply doesn’t have the peripherals to keep them up. There’s no getting around that. Anyone can stumble into 15 good innings. That doesn’t make him any more likely to continue it. Posted 07/26 at 11:31 AM
Snarf said...
Ben’s point is valid. Any owner that has Dunn is not going to care that his BA is .211 right now. If they are competing this far into the season with him hitting .211 they are going try and make up the average elsewhere and keep his power abilities. Posted 07/26 at 02:03 PM
Mike Silver said...
@Snarf I think its a stretch to say that every owner would react this way. Any owner of a player with a .210 batting average has the category in the back of his mind as a way to improve. Posted 07/26 at 02:26 PM
AJ Leight said...
@Mike I just think the timing was going to be bad no matter what. I mean I live in Pittsburgh and the general consensus here is that Presley is nothing more than a 4th outfielder. Whether it be Marte getting called, Victorino coming to town (or even Soriano or Willingham if we’re stretching it a bit) or what have you, I think Presley’s time as a starter had an expiration date even before the Marte call-up became official. As far as Alvarez, since June 16th he has more home runs than anyone in baseball. His recent hot streak makes it even harder for anyone to “buy low” on him. Had you written this in the beginning of June, that’d be a great call, but at this point I think you’re getting what you pay for with him. Like Dunn, he’ll kill your average. The fewer strikeout, more home run theory you dream of just doesn’t seem realistic. He’s doing what he’s always done. And if there’s one thing he REALLY needs to learn to do, it’s to learn to hit at night. Take a look at Day/Night splits if you don’t believe me…. Posted 07/27 at 12:25 AM
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Alex Presley? Are you kidding me? You buy low on Alex Presley the day after Starling Marte is called up? Hmmmmm..