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May 19, 2013
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How real is…? Breakout stars of 2012: hittersby Mike SilverJune 15, 2012 Returning from a brief hiatus, Mike is excited to be back at THT. Mike's former writing homes include FireBrandAL.com and StatSpeak.net, while his content has appeared on Fangraphs.com, ESPN.com, and others. A lifelong Red Sox fan native to New York, Mike loves to blend baseball and statistical analysis. Feel free to email him at mjasilver AT gmail DOT com. Comments
jhon said...
you’ll have a hard time finding any equal value at any of those picks… both braun and cabrera are top 5 picks.. wright top 15… I think trout is a top 15 pick and and kipnis top 20… I’d have to go with kipnis and trout… top 20 performers at picks 156 and 228. Posted 06/15 at 07:48 AM
wynams said...
On EE .. If you are only seeing minor power drops and have him only as a top 5-10 ... Who are the 5 3B you expect to outproduce “Projected to 150 games played: 82.7 R, 30.5 HR, 93.9 RBI, 11 SB, .2570 AVG, and 2.586 points above average”? Posted 06/15 at 10:13 AM
Mike Silver said...
@Jules Those are some great picks. If the season ended today, I would have to take Trout and Kipnis. Miggy is about 1 points above his round 1 contemporaries; Braun is about 2 and Wright is 1-2 points (check FantasyPlayerRater.com for a further explanation). Kipnis, on the other hand, is closer to 3 points ahead of round 13 draftees, while Trout would probably be in the 6 point range. Based on relative value, I think you would have to go with Kipnis and Trout. @Wymans Off the top of my head, Miggy, Wright, and Bautista definitely and Longoria now returning to health. Beltre and Sandoval as well. The thing to consider is not necessarily that he is having “minor power drops” but rather he is having drops everywhere across the board. That will add up to a few points, placing him in the 5-10 range. -Mike Posted 06/15 at 10:25 AM
gm said...
I think u meant the numbers arent eye-popping. You said the numbers are eye-popping there. Makes no sense how you wrote it. Posted 06/15 at 11:11 AM
Mike Silver said...
@gm I guess that depends on how your interpret the sentence. The numbers are eye-popping. The next part of the sentence—which I assume is what you’re referencing—addresses how many people probably think its surprising that he rates out at 7.200 points and is in the top 5. Reading it again though, I suppose “and” instead of “but” could have been used. -Mike Posted 06/15 at 11:14 AM
Mark Himmelstein said...
While obviously no one saw E5 coming like this, I do think you’re selling his career thus far a bit short. He’s been a very good HITTER for a long time for any position other than 1B or DH, averaging around 23 homers per 600 plate appearances in his career without ever really playing a full season. That’s partly because of injuries, but parlty because he’s one of those rare players where defense held back his fantasy value. He was just such a bad natural third baseman that he didn’t play enough to really take full advantage of his bat, and his bat was merely good-not-great any further down the defensive spectrum. The Blue Jays weren’t initially a great situation for him when he he was traded since they were pretty loaded at 1B/DH, but now that Lind is gone they’re an almost perfect situation—they preach aggressive, fly ball hitting, they have a great park for right handed power, and they have openings at the two positions he can reasonably play every day (1B and DH). So really the only question that doesn’t apply to any other hitter that applies to Encarnacion right now is whether he can keep his fly ball rate so high. As evidenced by a HR/FB not so far above his career rate, he has enough power to offset the BABIP drop in trading line drives for fly balls. If he does legitimately hit 50% fly balls over a full year, the sudden threat he’s putting on 30 HR shouldn’t be so surprising. He’ll likely do it with a BABIP between .260 and .280, but home runs count as hits too and contact has never been an issue for him and hasn’t become one either, so his average should as least be tolerable. Also, agree 100% on Trout and Harper. Trout’s an immediate stud, possibly a true #1 outfielder, while Harper’s more on the border of a #2/3 outfielder. Posted 06/15 at 11:25 AM
philosofool said...
Not sure I see the .300 BA from Mike Trout RoS. Giving him his current HR/AB and K/AB and a .330 BABIP, he’s a .282 hitter. Oliver has him at .286 and ZiPS at .278. .330 is a reasonable number for Trout’s BABIP at this point; you can’t take a rookie hitter and project him to have a BABIP talent like Ichiro or Jeter. Many guys similar to Trout, e.g., Grady Sizermore, have BABIPs much lower through their careers. I’m picking nits. Maybe he’s only a top 10 OF? I’ll take it (though someone in a league recently told me that he’s untouchable.) Posted 06/15 at 11:28 AM
Mike Silver said...
@philosofool The .300 batting average was projected using a .330 BABIP, actually. ZIPS has Trout at 9 HR over his next 385 PA with a 20% K-rate. He’s got more power than those 9 HR and his plate discipline profile projects better than a 20% K-rate (I don’t remember what I calculated when I wrote the article, but it was somewhere in the mid-high teens.) Those gains together can boost that average 15-20 points and get him over the .300 mark. Posted 06/15 at 11:36 AM
obsessivegiantscompulsive said...
Wow, another player for the Blue Jays suddenly goes from zero to hero in homers. What are the odds? Posted 06/15 at 12:42 PM
Matt said...
Where’s Adam Jones? Love Trout and Harper, but rookie seasons don’t count at breakouts IMO. Adam Jones These look like breakout #‘s to me… Posted 06/15 at 02:11 PM
Andrew said...
In regards to Trout and Harper…are you saying your view is that Trout is a Top 5 Outfielder for his career or just this season? And Harper’s ceiling is a top 20? That doesnt seem right… Posted 06/15 at 03:32 PM
philosofool said...
I think that’s just a 2012 comparison. If Harper makes his ZiPS RoS projection, he’s basically the best teenage hitter since integration, and that portends an insane career. The projections in this article are the basis of the rankings given, and those projections are mean projections of the RoS. Harper’s career ceiling is somewhere between Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Bonds. It’s not crazy to think that Trout and Harper are first rounders starting in 2014. Posted 06/15 at 03:53 PM
Mike Silver said...
@Andrew/Philosofool Philosophool is right, its the 2012 comp. Trout is incredibly good now, Harper is pretty good but not great… for now. Posted 06/15 at 04:02 PM
bsball said...
Hey Matt, For Adam Jones notes see Traders corner from 2 days ago. The short version is that HR and SB in 2012 are not real. Expect 2nd half to look more like 2011. Still good, but not 1st round. I would add that he’s batting 4th this year so expect a few more R this year than 2011. Posted 06/15 at 06:11 PM
MikeEl said...
Two things, Also, in a 10 team league, with 6 x 6 scoring, only get to keep 3 players from Kinsler, Tulowitzki, Votto, Trout, McCutchen, and Darvish. I’m pretty sure I’m going to hold onto Tulo and Votto, but beyond that I’m not certain. I’ve had Kinsler the last 2 years, but I don’t know how much longer he’ll be at 2b, while I only expect Trout, McCutchen and Darvish to get better. Posted 06/15 at 10:42 PM
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Hi, Mike
lucky me, having trout and kipnis. but i have a dilemma. our (10x10 OPS) league settings for next year will allow us to have 2 keepers - and to draft them, for one year only, in the round we drafted them this year. our 12-team snake is likely to give me the 12th pick….so, pick 2 from cabrera (R1, pick 12); braun (R2, pick 13); wright (R3, pick 36); kipnis (R13, pick 156); trout (R19, pick 228). thanks,
Jules