Introducing THT Forecasts
by David GasskoMarch 04, 2010
Just in time for the start of Spring Training, I’m excited to present to you the newest Hardball Times offering—THT Forecasts.
In a partnership with Brian Cartwright, the brilliant inventor of the Oliver projection system, we have produced forecasts for over 7,000 major and minor league players. For each player, Brian has provided us with detailed projections for the next six years, along with raw statistics and major league equivalencies for each of the past three seasons. This includes hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics, and coming soon, base running as well.
Our fielding data is based on Brian’s own play-by-play system, and we’re also adding together all of this data to give you both actual (for past seasons) and projected wins above replacement (WAR), so that you can see just how valuable each player has been in the past, and how much value we expect him to have in the future. All of these are things you won’t find anywhere else.
Most importantly, these are not just some static forecasts that will lose all value once season the starts. Instead, we will be providing complete updates of our projections every week, taking into account every single thing that has happened on the field until that point. Wondering if a player will keep up his hot start or bust out of his slump? There’ll be no need to play guessing games anymore. We’re not implementing any shortcuts, either: Each update will use the same projection engine that we use in the off-season.
And to give our projections context, we’ve also partnered with the fabulous THT Fantasy staff to provide weekly updated depth chart projections. So you not only get a computer-generated projection for each player but also a forecast that incorporates the player’s actual expected playing time to tell you how much he’ll actually be contributing at the major league level. And again, the depth charts will be updated every week to make sure you have the freshest information possible.
We’re still not done, though. We’ve recruited 30 of the best bloggers (list below) from around the internet to provide us with commentary on over 1,300 players—and once the season starts, they’ll be providing fresh remarks so that you not only get our objective forecast, but the kind of subjective knowledge you can only get from people who watch these players day-in and day-out.
If you’re a baseball fan (and reading this site pretty much automatically means you are), you will love THT Forecasts, and with so much stuff (and weekly updates!), you will never get bored of it. And I say this without mentioning all the cool stuff we’ll be adding over the coming days, weeks, and months. All of this you can purchase right now for just $14.95.
We know that in a recession, money is tight, but that is why we’re offering the lowest price we possibly can. The price will go up next year (especially considering that we’ll be launching the 2011 version of THT Forecasts quite a bit earlier than this season), but if you purchase this year, we’ll keep the purchase price the same for you next year as well. That’s almost as good a value as Albert Pujols!
Just to recap, here is a partial list of what you will get with THT Forecasts:
- Oliver projections for the next six years for over 7,000 major and minor league players. These projections include hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics (the latter based on Brian Cartwright’s own play-by-play system), wins above replacement (WAR) projections, and coming soon, base running as well. You can read more about Oliver here.
- Raw statistics for the past three years, including all the statistical categories listed above.
- Major league equivalencies (MLEs) for the past three seasons, so you can see not just a player’s raw past statistics, but also how his numbers look adjusted for context.
- Depth chart projections to tell you just how much of an impact a player will make at the major league level this season.
- Over 1,300 player comments (and counting) from the best team bloggers on the internet, to give you a more subjective look at just about every player that matters.
- And all of the above, updated each and every week, from now until October.
- Plus, many more features, such as projected standings and personal player watch lists, with more to come very soon.
All of this is available for just $14.95. So subscribe now! Or, subscribe to THT Forecasts and receive the Hardball Times Annual 2011 as soon as it is released this fall for just $34.95 ($39.95 for Canadian residents).
If you’re not convinced yet, we’ve made all the New York Yankee pages free for your perusal so that you can take a look at what we’re offering before you subscribe. It’s a sneak peak we know no baseball fan will be able to resist.
References and Resources
The player comment authors are,
Baltimore Orioles, Stacey Long, Camden Chat
Boston Red Sox, Evan Brunell, The Hardball Times
New York Yankees, SG, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Cork Gaines, Rays Index
Toronto Blue Jays, Jonathan Hale, The Hardball Times
Chicago White Sox, Mike Pindelski
Cleveland Indians, Ryan Richards, Let’s Go Tribe
Detroit Tigers, Brian Borawski, Tiger Blog
Kansas City Royals, Bradford Doolittle, Sports Radio KC
Minnesota Twins, Parker Hageman, Over the Baggy
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Sean Smith, Anaheim Angels All the Way
Oakland Athletics, Sal Baxamusa, The Hardball Times
Seattle Mariners, Jeff Sullivan, Lookout Landing
Texas Rangers, Scott Lucas, The Ranger Rundown
Atlanta Braves, John Beamer, The Hardball Times
Florida Marlins, Alex Carver
New York Mets, Eric Simon, Amazin’ Avenue
Philadelphia Phillies, Corey Seidman, Phillies Nation
Washington Nationals, Chris Needham, Capitol Punishment
Chicago Cubs, Harry Pavlidis, Cubs f/x
Cincinnati Reds, Justin Inaz, Red Reporter
Houston Astros, Lisa Gray, The Astros Dugout
Milwaukee Brewers, Eric Johnson, Brew Crew Ball
Pittsburgh Pirates, Pat Lackey, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke
St. Louis Cardinals, Larry Borowsky, Viva El Birdos
Arizona Diamondbacks, Jim McLennan, Arizona Snake Pit
Colorado Rockies, Brandi Griffin, Purple Row
Los Angeles Dodgers, Eric Stephen, True Blue LA
San Diego Padres, Geoff Young, Ducksnorts
San Francisco Giants, Steve Treder, The Hardball Times
David Gassko is a former consultant to a major league team. He welcomes comments via e-mail.
I’m definitely intrigued by the 6 year forecasts for minor leaguers. However, does Oliver have its own Superman Jr problem?
Here’s what Mike Fast wrote about PECOTA just the other day:
“However, as I was browsing through the Yankee hitter PECOTA cards that are freely available, one particular projection caught my eye. Baseball Prospectus projects Jesus Montero to hit .291/.334/.481 in the major leagues in 2010. Superman Jr., anyone?
The current leader among projection systems, Sean Smith’s CHONE, projects Montero to hit a much more subdued .255/.296/.425, and Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projects a .273/.315/.416 batting line for Montero.
What could be causing PECOTA’s optimism about Montero? It looks to me like it’s the same thing that caused PECOTA’s interesting optimism about Wieters last year. According to Montero’s PECOTA card, his .317/.370/.539 batting line at Double-A Trenton was equivalent to a .312/.354/.529 batting line in the major leagues. That doesn’t seem right, does it? Aren’t the majors harder than Double-A? A lot harder?”
Oliver’s projection for Montero is 315/362/547!
Actually, hold on. Those are labeled Major League Equivalencies not projections. But Oliver keeps Montero’s stats going up and up. In what would have to be his MLB years his OPS is well over 1000. These are astounding projections.
Colin and Mike have pointed to the MLEs from the Eastern League as a potential source of the Weiters/Montero problems with PECOTA. Mike doesn’t buy PECOTA’s MLE for Montero of 312/354/529. And I agree, that doesn’t pass the smell test to me.
Oliver has Montero’s Trenton MLE at 287/356/543. It’s actually higher!
The Yankees don’t have any other big time hitting prospects to cross check, but Brian mentioned some very high projections for Heyward in his intro article.
Brian mentioned that he’ll be rolling out a lot of tests for prior year accuracy. Presumably those tests will be rolled out after many people spend their $15. Considering that I’m most interested in the minor league side of these forecasts, I’m not sure that I’m willing to shell out the money based on what I’ve seen of the Montero and Heyward projections.
I know Brian does very good work and is someone that imo does have the stature to say “trust me” and “this will be publicly justified with rigorous open testing”. But (you knew there’d be a but!) I have to say that the Montero projection shocked me and completely stopped me in my tracks.