November 7, 2009
Order Now The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 is now in development and will ship in mid November! This year's book will feature articles by THT's staff as well as Bill James, Tom Tango and Craig Wright. If you use this link to purchase the Annual, you will be in the first group to receive it and you'll be supporting THT. 
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Is Scott Schoeneweis Any Good?by Jeff SackmannJanuary 12, 2007 The Mets are closing in on signing Scott Schoeneweis to a three-year, $10.8 million contract. In this market, that's not a lot of money, but for a team with a well-stocked bullpen—already including left-handed specialist Pedro Feliciano—the move is a bit confounding. Schoeneweis's role has changed frequently throughout his eight-year major league career. He debuted with the Angels in 1999 as a relief arm, then did nothing but start in 2000 and 2001. After 15 starts in 2002, he returned to the bullpen, only to log 19 starts with the White Sox in 2004. He's been a reliever since, and his stats suggest that he'd be best off remaining one. While his strikeout rate has held steady in his last three years in relief, his walk rate has exploded, and his usage pattern has changed as well. Once a one-inning pitcher, he has been used more and more as a one- or two-out guy: Year IP ERA+ K/9 BB/9 IP/G 2003 64.7 104 7.79 2.64 1.10 2005 57 134 6.79 3.95 0.71 2006 37.3 97 7.00 5.79 0.68It isn't necessarily bad to be a specialist; it could certainly work magic for Schoeneweis' employability as he ages. It does, however, limit his usefulness to the Mets, especially when the bullpen already contains Feliciano, who worked less than an inning per outing last season. Those Bases on BallsThe walk rate, though, can't be salvaged. The best Schoeneweis and the Mets can hope for is that 2006 was an aberration. It's nearly impossible to succeed while walking nearly six batters per nine innings. To look at it another way: more than 10% of plate appearances against Schoeneweis in 2004-06 ended in a base on balls. Given that Schoeneweis' value is so clearly in his matchups against left-handers, it's worth taking a closer look. Here are his results against lefties and righties in his last three years as a reliever: Year OBPvR SLGvR OBPvL SLGvL 2003 329 370 297 278 2005 405 389 260 241 2006 339 429 333 292 Career 362 459 303 302He has never displayed excellent control, but until last year, he was stingy with the walks against lefties. A .333 OBP isn't a disaster, but it is unquestionably a step in the wrong direction. And while it's possibly to have a statistical blip at age 32, he could just as likely be legitimately losing his effectiveness. If it's more than just a blip, the trend removes him from the ranks of valuable lefties. Two relievers who received similar deals this offseason, Alan Embree and Jamie Walker, held opposing lefties to OBPs last year of .288 and .262, respectively. The Mets' lefties, Feliciano and Darren Oliver, limited left-handers to .272 and .252, respectively. But Can He Start?New York's starting five is far from established, with Pedro Martinez set to miss the first half of the season and such pitchers as Oliver Perez, Dave Williams, and Mike Pelfrey going into Spring Training competing for a rotation spot. The Mets are probably not done (they have made an offer to Tomo Ohka, for instance), but Schoeneweis' history as a starter may have made him more appealing. It would be a mistake, however, to expect that he can be plugged into the rotation with positive results. Schoeneweis has never posted an ERA+ as a starter above 93, and that was in 2001. In 2004, he managed an ERA+ of 88, and hasn't started since. In the meantime, his walk rate has increased and he's become less effective against right-handed hitters. In short, Schoeneweis is following a fairly typical late-career progression for a left-handed pitcher. By most statistical measures, he's gotten less effective, especially against opposite-side hitting. He may be a better rotation option than, say, Jose Lima, but not dramatically so. Certainly not enough to justify the difference between the league minimum and $3.5 million per year. Looking Forward to This?The three projection systems available so far offer a sort of consensus on Schoenweis. The differences are only matters of degree. It looks like his strikeout rate will continue to plunge, while his walk rate is unlikely to keep climbing. (If it does, it'll probably have to continue its ascent in the International League.) More specifically, here's what CHONE, Marcel, and ZiPS have to say about Scott's prospects in 2007. (Note: these projected Schoeneweis with Cincinnati, so he should fare better in less homer-happy Shea.) System IP K BB HR ERA K/9 BB/9 CHONE 65 43 26 7 4.63 6.0 3.6 Marcel 58 40 26 6 4.58 6.2 4.0 ZiPS 51 35 27 3 4.41 6.2 4.8 Average 58 39 26 5 4.54 6.1 4.1Given that Schoeneweis is unlikely to offer any better than replacement-level insurance for the rotation, the Mets have committed an awful lot of money for an whole lot of mediocrity. It may remain a challenge to spin Jamie Walker's $12 million deal as a bargain, but Omar Minaya would've been much better adding a million bucks to the pot and signing Walker instead. Or, you know, going without a subpar second lefty. Jeff Sackmann is the creator of MinorLeagueSplits.com. With Kent Bonham, he founded CollegeSplits.com, which provides data on amateur baseball to about half of the 30 Major League teams. You can also follow him on Twitter. Commenting is not available in this weblog entry. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? 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