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Left on Baseby Dave StudemanDecember 22, 2005 I received my copy of Ron Shandler's 2006 Baseball Forecaster last week. It's the 20th Anniversary issue, which prompted me to pull out the xeroxed version I bought in 1988. This book has come a long way. I didn't buy the Forecaster for many years because it focused on fantasy baseball analysis, and I don't play fantasy baseball. My bad. I've missed some good baseball analysis and commentary along the way. For instance, this year's book includes ...
One of the statistics that Shandler invented and tracks is called "Strand Rate." We have our own version of Strand Rate at THT, called LOB% (percent of baserunners left on base). Our formula differs a bit from Strand Rate; ours is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)). Essentially, it's the number of baserunners who didn't score divided by the total number of baserunners (except those who scored on a home run). We exclude home runs from the base because we want to measure things a pitcher is less likely to control. The average LOB% was 71% in the American League last year and 72% in the National League. In other words, the average pitcher kept about 71% to 72% of baserunners from scoring. Is it an important stat? Well, the two World Series participants led their leagues in LOB%; the Astros were at 75.8% and the White Sox were at 75.4%. The Devil Rays were at the bottom of the major league list, at 66.4%. The list of major league LOB% leaders includes some of the best pitchers of 2005, such as Roger Clemens. This isn't a surprise; if you keep baserunners from scoring, you'll have a pretty good year. What's more, LOB% isn't just a matter of luck. I ran a quick regression analysis of 2004 and 2005 LOB% (for all pitchers who faced at least 300 batters in both years) and found a correlation of .28. In other words, the ability to keep baserunners from scoring is a repeatable skill, to a degree. For comparison, that's about the same correlation as a pitcher's home run rate (home runs per game). The real key to achieving a high LOB% is pitching well with runners in scoring position. Here's a table of two stats for the top five and bottom five LOB% pitchers (minimum of 100 innings in 2005). The stats are batting average with no one on base and batting average with runners in scoring position. Note all the negative differences for the leaders and the positive differences for the "laggards." Player Team LOB% BA/None On BA/RISP Diff Sosa J. ATL 85.1% .278 .194 -.084 Clemens R. HOU 82.3% .214 .138 -.076 Washburn J. LAA 81.8% .279 .238 -.041 Halladay R. TOR 81.5% .233 .188 -.045 Pettitte A. HOU 79.7% .227 .203 -.024 Rueter K. SF 62.3% .274 .315 .041 Hendrickson TB 62.2% .303 .338 .035 Nomo H. TB 62.2% .289 .328 .039 McClung S. TB 61.2% .211 .296 .085 Lima J. KC 60.7% .285 .350 .065Clemens obviously had a great year in 2005, but he's unlikely to post a 82% LOB% again. From 2002 through 2004, batters batted .226 against him with the bases empty and .174 with runners on scoring position. That's still a tremendous difference, but it's not equal to his 2005 performance. The guy to watch is the newest millionaire Mariner, Jarrod Washburn. From 2002 through 2004, batters batted .259 against him with the bases empty and .262 with runners in scoring position. If he returns to those levels again (and he probably will), his ERA will soar over 4.00. I keep reading that the Dodgers overpaid for Rafael Furcal, but I don't get it. The guy was the best shortstop in the National League last year, he's at his peak and he's a reliable projection. Both Shandler and the James Handbook project that he'll hit around .285/.355/.430 and Shandler gives him a Reliability Score of 95 (out of 100). Based on what major league teams paid last year, that makes him worth about $18 million. The Dodgers will pay him the equivalent of $13 million a year for the next three years. To me, this was a fine deal for L.A. Turning down the Cubs' five-year offer of $10 million a year was a smart move by Furcal, as we discussed a couple of weeks ago. He's basically taking a gamble that he'll be able to get more than $11 million for two years when he next hits the free agent market at the age of 31. Given salary inflation, that's a pretty good bet. We just passed an important deadline, when teams decide to release players (usually due to arbitration salary issues). Alert teams can often pick up good players during this process, as the White Sox did last year with A.J. Pierzynski. I would write a nice recap of the players released this year, but Bryan Smith beat me to it. Check out his report. And while we're sharing links, be sure to read this weblog review of the free agent market by Skip Sauer and our own J.C. Bradbury. In the Wall Street Journal, no less! One other link. You may know that I have a passion for graphs and data presentation. If you share that passion, you'll enjoy this guy's attempt to keep his girlfriend. Over a year ago, I wrote about my brother's 45-year-old APBA league, the North East League, which is probably the longest-running baseball simulation league in existence. I'm sad to tell you that one of its members, Bill Linn, was tragically killed by an automobile last week. He was 63, and he had been in the NEL since 1970. Here are some of my brother's comments about Bill. Bill was perhaps the most famous writer in APBA history, as his “Linn on Leagues” column graced the pages of the APBA Journal for years. The Linn on Leagues column allowed APBA leagues around the country to communicate with each other, and it helped to create a real APBA community that lasted for decades. Even today, a majority of APBA fans will remember Linn on Leagues with fondness. After he let Jim Pertierra take over the APBA Journal leagues column, Bill became the NEL newsletter editor for almost a decade, reporting on the activities of our small league with the same intensity and clarity that he previously had brought to his coverage of the nation as a whole. Even after he stepped down as the NEL newsletter editor, he often took on the task of writing up the NEL playoffs, and he contributed to the fabric of the NEL tremendously by creating and operating the Joe Morgan and Steve Carlton awards. To say that Bill loved the Morgan and Carlton awards would be a significant understatement. I wrote about Bill's remarkable streak of playing 100 head-to-head series over 30 years against Ken Meyer last summer. Our condolences go out to Bill's family and the NEL. Dave is the manager of the Baseball Graphs website.. Comments about this article can be sent to him through the miracle of e-mail. Do you have a general question or comment for one of THT's writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag We also welcome unsolicited op-ed pieces of approximately 500 words for consideration. We reserve the right to edit for length, clarity and consistency of style. Please include your whole name and location to be considered. If you have a comment about this specific article, please email the writer. Next Article: Around the Majors: Twins sign White>> <<Previous Article: Daily Graphing: Jacque Jones |