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Minor League Gunsby Jeff SackmannDecember 15, 2006 Young catchers are somewhat unique among prospects: a reputation as a good or bad defender can be the difference between a career spent as a backup catcher and one that tops out with a failed transition to first or third base. However, like so many issues in prospect analysis, there aren't a lot of numbers to back up those reputations. As David Gassko pointed out in his article on measuring catcher defense, there are three basic elements of the backstop's job: controlling the running game, keeping the ball in front of him, and calling a good game. The first two are measurable; the last one is, at least so far, not. For the minors, however, the first two haven't been easily measurable, either. Using play-by-play data from the 2006 minor leagues, I focused on the first one of those elements. While a full season's worth of data is not the final word on a catcher's skill at gunning down would-be basestealers (or keeping them from running in the first place), it's a large step in the right direction. As is so often the case, this is a somewhat one-dimensional study. The effectiveness of a running game is a function of many variables: the catcher's arm strength, the catcher's reputation, the pitcher's pickoff moves, his repertoire, his time to home plate, and the aggregate skill level of basestealers in the league. This analysis makes no attempt to filter out the effect of the last four of those variables. That's a project for another column. Stolen Base PercentageThe most common statistic used to measure a catcher's effectiveness at controlling the running game is stolen base percentage (SB%). It's simply the number of steals against the catcher divided by the number of attempts. It's the same thing as a batter's stolen base percentage, so we can use many of the same rules of thumb. The "break-even" point is somewhere around 70%, meaning that a catcher who stops more than 30% of attempts is benefiting his team while one who stops fewer than that is hurting it. In the majors last year, the overall stolen base rate was between 71% and 72%, but the rates were several percentage points lower in the minors, between 64% and 68%, depending on the league. (For reference, at the end of this article I've presented a table with the averages at each level for the three stats I've used.) Here are the 10 best performances in the minors last year (minimum 500 innings), according to SB%: First Last Lev Org IP SB CS SB% Chris Stewart AAA Chw 674.7 35 39 47.3% Korey Feiner A+ Min 668.7 36 39 48.0% Landon Powell A+/AA Oak 821.3 51 55 48.1% Dane SardinhaAAA Cin 571.7 30 31 49.2% Brian BormasteA/A+ Tor 605.7 43 44 49.4% Brett MartinezA Laa 755.7 48 46 51.1% ChristiaLopez A/A+ Tam 716.3 58 55 51.3% Jake Muyco A/A+ Chc 675.3 58 54 51.8% Patrick Arlis AA Flo 552.0 28 26 51.9% Kurt Suzuki AA Oak 795.7 36 33 52.2%As one might expect, the list isn't exactly riddled with top offensive players. However, Oakland fans may take heart in the fact that Landon Powell and Kurt Suzuki—two prospects who have lost some of their luster—are so effective in this aspect of their game. While I haven't yet looked at how well these numbers translate to the majors, it would seem that many of these players would be credible MLB backstops, at least when it comes to controlling the basepaths. It's especially galling that the Reds gave Chad Moeller a guaranteed contract with Dane Sardinha, a similar good-field/no-hit catcher, in the organization. And the Worst...On the flip side, not every poor-hitting catcher is a defensive stud. To wit, here are the 10 worst catchers in the minors last year, according to their SB%: First Last Lev Org IP SB CS SB% Chris Gimenez A Cle 511.7 42 11 79.2% Juan Apodaca A/A+ Lad 708.0 110 32 77.5% J. R. House AA/AAA Hou 565.0 92 27 77.3% Emerson Frostad A+ Tex 608.0 80 25 76.2% Curtis Thigpen AA/AAA Tor 746.7 70 22 76.1% John Otness A+ Bos 735.7 108 34 76.1% Salomon Manriquez AA Was 778.3 98 31 76.0% Mike Mahoney AAA Tor 526.7 44 14 75.9% Brad Davis A+ Flo 863.0 101 33 75.4% Kyle Dahlberg A Bal 518.0 64 21 75.3%The most familiar names on the list are J. R. House and Curtis Thigpen; the others may be your future bullpen coaches. If we assume that it is more difficult to prevent stolen bases at higher levels, these players will require some serious offensive production to fill any role behind the plate in the major leagues. Reputation and InertiaIt's wonderful for a catcher to cut down half of the attempts against him, but there are other ways of looking at the issue. The best defensive catchers not only keep runners from advancing, they prevent runners from thinking about advancing. This is similar to an analysis of outfield arms: outfield assists (like caught stealings) are great from a run-expectancy perspective. For instance, if David Eckstein is on second base when Albert Pujols singles, it's better for the defensive team to throw out Eckstein at the plate than for him to play it safe and advance to third. However, assists are often racked up by those fielders who don't enjoy great reputations—those guys who third base coaches are always tempted to test. The same is true, at least to some extent, for catchers. With that in mind, let's take a look at the catchers whom opposing managers fear the most. This I've measured by dividing attempts (SB+CS) by innings. It isn't a perfect representation (it would be better to count the exact number of times opposing teams have an opportunity to steal) but I suspect than any improvements would be relatively tiny. Here are those catchers who allowed the fewest stolen base attempts per inning: First Last Lev Org IP SB% ATT/I HumbertoQuinteroAAA Hou 695.7 63.3% 8.6% Kurt Suzuki AA Oak 795.7 52.2% 8.7% Chris IannettaAA/AAA Col 644.7 70.2% 8.8% Rob Johnson AAA Sea 607.7 56.1% 9.4% Matt Tupman AA/AAA Kan 759.0 69.9% 9.6% Patrick Arlis AA Flo 552.0 51.9% 9.8% Carlos Ruiz AAA Phi 675.7 63.2% 10.1% Erik Kratz AA/AAA Tor 607.7 67.7% 10.2% Ryan JorgenseAAA Cin 621.0 59.4% 10.3% Hector Gimenez AAA Hou 533.3 63.6% 10.3%Somewhat surprisingly, there's very little overlap between the first list and the second one. Only Suzuki and Patrick Arlis appear on both. Also of note: at least two of these catchers (Chris Iannetta and Matt Tupman) cut down attempts at worse than a league-average rate, despite apparently enjoying something of a positive reputation. That could be interpreted very favorably: against a catcher like Iannetta, perhaps managers very carefully pick their spots. Regardless of why the numbers come out the way they do, all of these backstops keep baserunners in their places, allowing fewer than one attempt per nine innings.
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