November 22, 2009
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More or less about groundersby Harry PavlidisAugust 18, 2009 I was wondering about the biggest swings in groundball rate by hitters and pitchers from 2008 and 2009. The results were enough of a surprise to me, and enough of a lack of surprise, I figured I'd share what started as a mild curiosity. Ground balls per plate appearanceThis isn't about the ball in play rates I typically look at, but the number of plate appearances that ended with a ground ball. This will capture pitchers who strike out fewer batters while getting the same rate of ground balls. Looking at the extremes, I found the three pitchers who made the biggest move toward more grounders and the three batters who cut down on them the most. As a general fan of pitching and a fan of the Chicago Cubs, four of the six names came as no surprise. For both groups, a minimum of 300 plate appearances in 2009 and 500 in 2008 are required. Relative difference is included, although absolute difference was the qualifying factor. Pitchers with most ground balls added per 100 plate appearances
Batters with most ground balls reduced per 100 plate appearances
How's that working out for you guys?Bottom line is results, or words to the effect. Here are some basic stats on the six subjects. Joel Pineiro
Brian Bannister
Glen Perkins
Outside of an improved home run rate, Perkins is not like the others. He's also a recent addition to the 15-day disabled list. Chris Young
Derrek Lee
Ryan Theriot
Once again, we have two improved and one not so much. This time, it's Arizona's Chris Young, who was demoted just a couple days before Minnesota disabled Perkins. For Lee and Theriot, the drop in double plays and pick-up in home runs stand out. Pineiro and Bannister are having far better seasons than most expected. But for Young and Perkins, there doesn't look to be much of an upside. I found a couple things about Perkins lurking in his PITCHf/x data.
If I hadn't looked at Perkins' line first, I wouldn't have guessed he'd be doing so much worse in 2009. This doesn't even attempt to look where or when his injury impacted his performance, and it is a small sample—hard to draw conclusions even if something looks "clear." Young is less confusing. He's replaced his grounders with pop-ups. His rate of pop-ups on balls in play has doubled (to 24 percent). Meanwhile, his home runs per ball in air (pops, lines and flies) has gone from nearly 15 percent in 2007 to less than eight percent in 2008 down to four percent for 2009. There was no change in batted ball type between 2007 and 2008 to explain the drop in power, and the 2009 pop-ups aren't enough to explain the continued drop in home runs. Sometimes an "improved" ground ball rate isn't a good thing. It just isn't that simple, I say to my straw man. References and Resources Pitch, and some batted ball, data from MLBAM, pitch classifications by the author Harry Pavlidis admits he has a baseball problem. He also writes for Beyond the Boxscore, Out of the Ivy and his own blog, Cubs f/x. Feedback, questions and comments are appreciated - harrypav@gmail.com
OsandRoyals said...
In most cases more flyballs means more fly-liners and flyballs in the outfield where the wind may be able to push one into the stands. For more detailed info check out this fangraphs article and scroll down to Jonas F.‘s comment Posted 08/20 at 11:00 PM
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Interesting story, but I would not expect Roger Maris to hit 59 home runs since he would not be playing 1/2 of his games in Yankee Stadium with its friendly short right field.