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Nearly Ready? A Look at AAA Pitchers

Having a great fastball and off-speed stuff isn't enough; you've got to have command of it. The measure I use is non-intentional walks per opportunity, eliminating hit batsmen from opportunity.

Finally, a measure of overall effectiveness: My choice is a modified version of FIP (Fielder-Independent Pitching, developed by Tangotiger) which excludes intentional walks, but includes hit batsmen. FIP is a close cousin of DIPS (developed by Voros McCracken). The advantage of FIP over DIPS is that is is very easy to calculate (see formula in caption).

What DIPS and FIP aim at is to eliminate much of the influence of fielding, while retaining much of the pitcher's contribution. This makes either measure a better choice than straight ERA or runs allowed per 9 IP, both of which are heavily influenced by the fielders.

Home runs allowed is a volatile stat which is greatly affected by small sample size, park and opposition batters (moreso than strikeouts and walks). Because home runs carry so much weight in FIP, pitchers allowing a cluster of home runs (such as Dodgers prospect Joel Hanrahan) will be severely punished, while others who have not contracted gopheritis will thrive. The reader is reminded that these figures are not park-adjusted.

Joe Blanton, part of the famous "Moneyball" draft, looks to be following in the footsteps of the big three (Hudson, Zito, Mulder) that form the nucleus of the Athletics pitching staff. The A's will be happy to keep Blanton in AAA for the first half of the season, as there isn't much room in the rotation right now. If everyone continues to throw well, having six quality starters is a nice problem to have.

On the rise with a bullet is phenom Zach Greinke. With all the Royals' rotation problems, the only thing keeping Zach in AAA is the service-time issue. The first week of June should be safe from that standpoint; look for Greinke to be in the rotation by then.

The Cardinals have two stud pitching prospects knocking on the door -- either Danny Haren or Adam Wainwright will be fighting it out if/when the next St. Louis starting pitcher goes down to injury. David Bush is now a serious threat for the Blue Jays rotation if Pat Hentgen fails to add some MPH to his fastball.

Jorge De La Rosa (Boston-to-Arizona-to-Milwaukee), traded twice this off-season, has shown poor control to go with his high strikeout rate. I like what Juan Dominguez showed me in his brief stint with Texas last year. He's a good candidate to replace R.A. Dickey in the Rangers rotation, but teams that are winning are usually reluctant to replace a starter unless he's injured.

Edwin Jackson didn't make any of these lists (16.2% K, 10.3% W, 3.85 mFIP). Evidently he needs more polish and at 20 years of age, there's no rush. Sean Burnett is only a year older, and has more than held his own in the PCL. The danger is that the Pirates will bring Burnett up prematurely when they fade out of the NL Central race. Aaron Heilman (Mets), Jung Bong (CIN) and Brandon Claussen (CIN) are guys who've seen the bigs and will be returning there soon.

Robert Dudek is also a Batter's Box author and can be contacted via e-mail.


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