May 22, 2012
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Players I like more than you doby Ben PritchettJanuary 23, 2012 Ben Pritchett can be reached for questions, comments, gripes, or considerations at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or you could follow his whims on twitter @pritchettclan. Comments
Brad Johnson said...
I have to agree, I have him slotted for roughly 12 in 2012 (15-20 in a full season). Posted 01/23 at 08:19 AM
Ben Pritchett said...
@Behemoth/Brad Johnson- I know that projecting 35+ SBs is rather lofty, but I came to that number for several different reasons. First of all, his speed numbers are still really good (SPD-6.5 Sx-154). I mean the guy is also averaging 15 triples a year over the last two seasons and that’s in just 450 ish ABs. His 15 triples last year ranked him third behind Reyes 17, Victorino 16. Fowler’s speed shouldn’t be in question. He’s a leadoff hitter that gets on base (.355 OBP). I like that he’s working out very hard. The reason he hasn’t had stolen base success has had more to do with work ethic than skill level. Getting caught 5 times in the month of May really killed his opportunites through the first half of the season. He went on to steal 10 in the second half. In addition to working out with his own teammates, Fowler is said to be working with Matt Kemp to refine all his tools. Just a hunch, but I think the days of -20 SBs are behind us. Posted 01/23 at 10:10 AM
Chicago Mark said...
I’ve seen Fowler mentioned many times on multiple sites as a possible sleeper. I’m uncertain he remains a sleeper for long. Posted 01/23 at 11:27 AM
Ben Pritchett said...
@Chicago Mark- Everybody likes Fowler as a sleeper because his price will be so low in drafts, you really can’t go wrong. Even if his hype catches up to him come May, I don’t think he gets drafted before the 16th round. If that’s the case, he’s still a justifiable pick there. I probably wouldn’t pay that much. I usually like to grab closers and starting pitchers in those rounds, but Fowler is poised to finally be ready to show us some production to go along with that potential. Posted 01/23 at 11:36 AM
Chicago Mark said...
I’m an auction guy and think this raises his price a few $$$ at least. I’m looking for $1 and $2 sleepers. I think Cameron Maybin and Fowler each go for closer to $5 - $9. That ain’t sleeper $$. It’s more expected return $$. I like the write-up though. Posted 01/23 at 11:45 AM
Jacob Rolling Rothberg said...
This is not the first article I’ve seen about Price being an underrated commodity heading into next season. Who actually believes that a famous guy with high-profile playoff exposure in two of the last three seasons will be in any way undervalued? Price will go off the board in the first 10 pitchers picked, so unless you believe in him being picked in the top 4 or so, I don’t know how value can be extracted from that. Posted 01/23 at 11:56 AM
johnnycuff said...
i wouldn’t call losing 2.6 mph a “slight” decrease in velocity. sure it may be due to injuries but that looks pretty serious for ubaldo. Posted 01/23 at 11:57 AM
Brad Johnson said...
Is Price actually going in the top ten though? I ask that seriously as I’ve ignored the MDC data thus far (it’s mostly noise right now). From what I gather, people think of him more as a top 20/$20-25 pitcher. That’s what? pick #80. If Ben thinks that he’s more around top 10 (say pick #55)or $28, then he’s getting an uncommon value surplus on his rotation ace. Perhaps what I think that other people think of him is entirely wrong? Posted 01/23 at 12:03 PM
Chicago Mark said...
I just received an update email and not seen the update here yet. Boy is that fast. I agree with you on Fowler Ben. I think he breaks out a little more this year. Especially if the reports of his added efforts here in the winter are correct. Many people don’t believe in that kind of stuff. But if he is working harder in the off-season it at least shows maturity and a willingness to get better. That’s part of the whole process. I like it. I’m not certain Price is a top 10 pitcher either. He’s close but I think a little higher. Or is that lower? 15ish! Posted 01/23 at 12:13 PM
Dave Shovein said...
In NFBC drafts thus far, Price has averaged the 11th SP off the board, at roughly pick 49 overall Posted 01/23 at 12:51 PM
Brad Johnson said...
See, that sounds like exactly where he should be going. Ben, do you value him higher than that? Posted 01/23 at 12:54 PM
Ben Pritchett said...
@Brad Johnson/ Jacob Rolling Rothberg- You guys got me thinking about the value of David Price, and I came to this conclusion. I have Price as my number 8 starting pitcher behind Verlander, Halladay, C. Lee, Kershaw, CC Sabathia,Lincecum, Weaver, then we’re in the area of Price then King Felix, Greinke, Hamels, and Haren. There’s no particular order other than Price at 8. I started to agree with you guys about if you can really consider that I really like Price more than the room. I decided that where I might not like him necessarily more than the seven ahead of him, I will be much more likely to actually draft Price than the guys above him. So in my head I automatically dismiss Halladay, Verlander and company. Focusing on a guy like Price that I will most likely land on my team. I hope that makes sense. So to answer your question Brad. Yes, I personally have Price higher than 11 but I could totally see where others would draft him lower than all the twelve. A lot of times I will rank or prefer a guy based sheerly on my own thought processes that he will find his way on my team. I won’t have Kimbrel, for example, because I’m not drafting relievers early. For you auction guys, all that goes out the window due to every draft’s unique inflation. Posted 01/23 at 10:13 PM
Ben Pritchett said...
@johnnycuff- I was wondering if anybody would catch that. I saw that 2.5ish mph drop and was a little bit concerned, but I think that he will be fine after an offseason of healing. I also think he profiles better in Cleveland even though his stats didn’t show that last year. He’s definitely somebody you really need to eye during the Spring or even as soon as pitcher/catchers report on Feb 18. I want to see that velocity increase but even if it doesn’t I would still give him another chance based on the actual filthiness of his stuff. His fastball has, or maybe had, unreal movement. That should be another important aspect to watch. Without as much speed, I’m okay. Without speed and movement, I’m not going anywhere near him. I say all that to say this, he’ll be fine. Posted 01/23 at 10:19 PM
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Why does everyone seem to think Dexter Fowler will steal lots of bases? He’s stolen 25 over the last two years combined, he has no track record of stealing lots of bases in the minors, and he has always had a very poor success rate.