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Comments
digglahhh said...
My experience w/ keeper leagues are that they tend to skew toward keeping bats as opposed to arms. This is entirely logical, IMO, as there is a very deep crop of tier 2 and 3 pitchers available that are relatively similar in value – enough that everybody feels confident enough to get 1 or 2 of in the first three or four rounds after the 60 kept players are gone. Nearly all the top CI bats will be kept every year, so the only way you can get one is to either get lucky by snagging a true stud right before his breakout, or by trading a keeper-worthy pitcher for one (and, as I mentioned, this doesn’t mean a top 60 ranked pitcher; it’s more like a top 25, b/c it’s all about replacement value in the first few rounds of the post-keeper draft)*.
Now, if Greinke has moved into the Lincecum/Santana territory, then I’d be in favor of exploring the possibility of cashing him in for a top tier CI. Of course, the counterargument is that CI should be deep enough that you can fill it productively well outside of the first five rounds. So…
What I would really consider doing in that case is proposing Greinke straight up to Jose Reyes’s owner, right now! (Hopefully, he’s toward the top of the standings and needs production as opposed to long term value) SS is a spot where you can clearly upgrade. And, in a keeper league, anytime you have the chance to turn a SP into in a first rounder, you gotta at least try. Even if Reyes disappoints coming back, you go to next year with Reyes/your choice of the best non-kept pitcher as opposed to Greinke/aging vet, guy looking to bounce back from poor season, or high upside but risky guy.
Looking at your roster, I’m also presuming you kept McCann from last year. I think that’s probably a mistake. In any mixed league of fewer than 14 teams, I don’t see any reason to keep a catcher who would not be a lock keeper at a different position. Worst case scenario, you end up with the 12th best catcher out there – I’m willing to wager that if you hadn’t kept McCann, you wouldn’t be going to war with Russell Branyan at what’s traditionally the biggest run-producing roster spot.
*The only two GUARANTEED keep-able starters in a league w/ 50-60 keepers are, IMO, Santana and Lincecum. ¬ I’d rather hold onto somebody like a Brian Roberts than a Dan Haren b/c I’d rather wind up with Javier Vazquez/Roberts than Haren/Freddy Sanchez. There are arguments to be made for the Harens , Webbs and Halladays, and Sabathias, but chances are if you’re keeping a SP other than Johan or Timmy, you probably did not contend last year.
Posted 05/27 at 11:06 AM
Chad Burke said...
Not sure why he is holding onto Beckham. I understand that it’s a keeper league but he’d have to get called up and have a hell of a second half for someone to even consider keeping him when you have Brian Roberts at the position. I’d definitely be dumping him with someone likely to emerge with CI eligibility of some sort.
Schafer is not helping you on your roster all that much either, especially since you are unlikely to keep him over any of your current starters and right now he’d be behind Lind and Drew as well.
Another possibility would be trying to trade Lind to someone with a weak outfield while his value is still fairly decent.
My experience w/ keeper leagues are that they tend to skew toward keeping bats as opposed to arms. This is entirely logical, IMO, as there is a very deep crop of tier 2 and 3 pitchers available that are relatively similar in value – enough that everybody feels confident enough to get 1 or 2 of in the first three or four rounds after the 60 kept players are gone. Nearly all the top CI bats will be kept every year, so the only way you can get one is to either get lucky by snagging a true stud right before his breakout, or by trading a keeper-worthy pitcher for one (and, as I mentioned, this doesn’t mean a top 60 ranked pitcher; it’s more like a top 25, b/c it’s all about replacement value in the first few rounds of the post-keeper draft)*.
Now, if Greinke has moved into the Lincecum/Santana territory, then I’d be in favor of exploring the possibility of cashing him in for a top tier CI. Of course, the counterargument is that CI should be deep enough that you can fill it productively well outside of the first five rounds. So…
What I would really consider doing in that case is proposing Greinke straight up to Jose Reyes’s owner, right now! (Hopefully, he’s toward the top of the standings and needs production as opposed to long term value) SS is a spot where you can clearly upgrade. And, in a keeper league, anytime you have the chance to turn a SP into in a first rounder, you gotta at least try. Even if Reyes disappoints coming back, you go to next year with Reyes/your choice of the best non-kept pitcher as opposed to Greinke/aging vet, guy looking to bounce back from poor season, or high upside but risky guy.
Looking at your roster, I’m also presuming you kept McCann from last year. I think that’s probably a mistake. In any mixed league of fewer than 14 teams, I don’t see any reason to keep a catcher who would not be a lock keeper at a different position. Worst case scenario, you end up with the 12th best catcher out there – I’m willing to wager that if you hadn’t kept McCann, you wouldn’t be going to war with Russell Branyan at what’s traditionally the biggest run-producing roster spot.
*The only two GUARANTEED keep-able starters in a league w/ 50-60 keepers are, IMO, Santana and Lincecum. ¬ I’d rather hold onto somebody like a Brian Roberts than a Dan Haren b/c I’d rather wind up with Javier Vazquez/Roberts than Haren/Freddy Sanchez. There are arguments to be made for the Harens , Webbs and Halladays, and Sabathias, but chances are if you’re keeping a SP other than Johan or Timmy, you probably did not contend last year.