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Self-flagellation

by Jonathan Halket
October 22, 2009



Jonathan Halket is an economist in New York. He welcomes questions and comments here.


Greg Simons said...

Nice article, Jonathan.  One of my weaknesses is not going for top-dollar players.  Most of the time my most-expensive player cost less than just about anyone else’s most-expensive player.  This hurt me this season as I had 10% of my budget left over when the auction was done.  I need to consider spending more for the best players, because inflation has pushed my league more toward a stars-n-scrubs setup.

Also, closers have become nearly worthless in our league.  A few years ago one owner refused to pay for saves at all, punting the category and spending his money elsewhere.  The rest of the league has adapted to this, to the point where top closers go for maybe $20, whereas several years ago they would top $30, and the lower-tier guys can be had for $1-$5.

I’m not sure if I should exploit this inefficiency by grabbing the best closers for relatively cheap prices or join the crowd and spend the money elsewhere.  Thoughts?

Posted 10/22  at  01:27 PM
Jonathan said...

Greg -
It really depends on the value of closers in your league.  Most valuation systems value players independently (in some sense) from what other players in your league are doing.  So if that value is >$20, then you should buy…

Posted 10/22  at  02:22 PM
Greg Simons said...

Yeah, I was leaning that way - especially since I had all that money to burn.  I could have three top closers cheap, which would give me a big leg up in saves and allow me to make deals as the season goes along.

We’ll see what happens next spring.

Posted 10/22  at  03:10 PM
Sal Paradise said...

If you shift some of your budget for starters to reliable high-talent closers, then you can afford to spend less on the starters because the best relievers will significantly help your rate stats. If closers are going at a discount, and starters aren’t, then feel free to grab the second tier of starters so long as you have first-tier closers.

Posted 10/22  at  11:34 PM
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