Jeffrey Gross is a 24-year old law student (and die-hard Cubs fan) who currently resides in Madison, WI. In addition to writing for The Hardball Times, he also reviews tasty adult beverages as part of a side project titled "saBEERmetrics." He has previously worked for The Daily Illini and Northern Star newspapers as a film critic and sportswriter (respectively). You can reach him by email at gameofinchesblog AT gmail DOT com.
Comments
Brad Johnson said...
#21. Challenge Accepted.
Evan Longoria.
That was easy.
Posted 02/03 at 08:32 AM
Vinny said...
LIAR!
Longoria stole 15 bases once, last year he stole 3 bases and CS twice. other totlas, 9 & 7. Ok so you’re probably not liar as he is “capable” just not probable, will he run more this year than last. probably but probaly not too much either
Posted 02/03 at 11:11 AM
Brad Johnson said...
The word used was capable. And since he’s done it in the recent past, he does seem to be capable. Therefore, I did not lie.
I agree that anyone betting on 15 sb’s from Longoria is crazy, but the talent is there to do it under the right conditions.
Posted 02/03 at 11:17 AM
MH said...
To add to the sentiment, I do think the Lawrie ranking is a tad low. You just finish talking about the risk with Bumgarner, and I understand there is some risk with Lawrie in terms of power, but even a short term .260-15-15 3B is pretty valuable, and that’s Lawrie’s floor right now. His ceiling is a Top 3 3B, even in the short term. Those SB may seem just a touch more than trivial, but they’re not, 3B has become nearly as SB desolate as 1B (where you have guys like Pujols, Votto, and Hosmer who can all give you 10ish SB). Getting 15 SB and just zero-damage from the other categories out of 3B as a floor with that kind of upside really gives you a lot of flexibility in roster construction, and as you point out, the only other 3B who is likely to give you that is David Wright, who really has just as much risk as Lawrie right now (and FWIW, this is coming from a Mets fan who is cautiously hopeful the new dimensions of CitiField keep the hopes of a .300-25-25 upside alive for Wright).
I love Mike Trout, but I don’t get at all how he ranks ahead of Lawrie right now. If we were talking real life, I might take Trout, thanks to premium defense and strong walk rate. In fantasy, I’d probably Move Lawrie all the way up ahead of McCutchen and behind Strasburg on this list. I’m not sure how you can rank Jennings ahead of McCutchen and then have Lawrie so low, seems like opposite thought processes.
Posted 02/03 at 12:07 PM
Chris R said...
I don’t get the omission of Longoria and Freddie Freeman (but the inclusion of Belt, who MIGHT become a “Freddie Freeman type”.) Are you applying some criteria other than future fantasy value?
Posted 02/03 at 12:36 PM
Brad Johnson said...
The thing people seem to be forgetting about Lawrie is that he was a pretty ordinary prospect prior to last year. After last year, he appears like he’ll be a perennial top 50 pick, but he easily could end up peaking as a #125 kind of guy.
You do have to like the favorable home park and potent supporting cast, but the AL East can be a real challenge to hit in some years.
Posted 02/03 at 12:37 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...
+1 to Brad. That’s kind of my thoughts. I am ranking him so low because the floor, not the ceiling. His floor is closer to hitting .260 with Alberto Callaspo-like power/speed numbers
Posted 02/03 at 12:39 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...
@Chris,
Longoria is 27, so he does not qualify for this list.
As for freeman, I think Belt’s power upside is a bit higher. Im not a huge freeman fan, and I would have ranked Domonic Brown about both if not for being set to start the season in the minors (potentially most of the season being spent there)
Posted 02/03 at 12:42 PM
Brad Johnson said...
Longoria is entering his age 26 season and so is DQ’d. I’m a little confused by the lack of Freeman too. Has to be an oversight?
Posted 02/03 at 12:42 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...
@Brad,
No. Freeman was intentional. Not a fan. I think 2011 was his exact true talent line. 20 HR pop, a cpl SB, low .280s AVG. Solid CI production, but not mention worthy to me. No true upside compared to the guys ahead of him (except maybe belt)
Posted 02/03 at 02:06 PM
Brad Johnson said...
I guess I see the median projection for Belt and Rizzo as slightly less than that.
Posted 02/03 at 02:09 PM
Jeffrey gross said...
Beas,
True but rizzos upside is much larger. Potential 30+ hr bat
Posted 02/03 at 02:24 PM
rbt said...
I’m always amused by those who say that Hosmer doesn’t have enough power for a first baseman. Some scouts rated his power as a perfect 80 coming out of high school, and he’s always projected for plenty of power. I think that, despite the unfavorable home park, he will hit for plenty of power, and very soon. Don’t forget he was only 21 last year.
Posted 02/03 at 05:53 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...
Six-Year Major League Equivalent Forecast For Eric Hosmer based on MLB/MiLB production to date
See above forecast. Obviously does not account for the unpredictable breakout, but Oliver is known as being the best (or at least top) free or commerical tool for forecasting major league production based on MiLB production.
Posted 02/03 at 06:04 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...
@Brad,
PS, longoria is projected for 6 SB. I wouldnt forecast him to exceed 10 honestly. SB isnt his game.
Posted 02/03 at 06:07 PM
Mh said...
@Brad re: Lawrie
Sure, he wasn’t a Top 20 prospect before the middle of 2011, but a lot of that wasn’t really fantasy relevant. He got middling to poor grades on defense, his SB% was poor (though he improved it every year), and there was some talk of makeup issues. But he was a first round draft pick who consistently hit for a decent AVG, showed some pop, showed the willingness to run, and scouts always spoke highly of his pure hitting ability. All of those are fantasy assets. Then he went nuts in the PCL, which is of course to be taken with a grain of salt, but I don’t really see the argument that he’s so far inferior to Mike Trout in terms of fantasy. He plays a tougher position to fill and seems to have at least as much pure roto upside and has less developing left to do.
I’m still saying his floor is .260-15-15 in the short term, and his ceiling is Top 3 3B, which IMO makes him a top 10 dynasty player under 25.
Posted 02/03 at 06:08 PM
DShea said...
“You do have to like the favorable home park and potent supporting cast, but the AL East can be a real challenge to hit in some years.”
Last 5 years, there’s only one year the Al East (excluding TOR) was significantly better than the overall AL. TB is usually balanced by Baltimore, and NY and Bos are usually clustered around the middle.
Posted 02/03 at 11:11 PM
Jthom17 said...
Pineda has had injuries probles in past. Elbow issues in 2009—Only 40+ IP.
Posted 02/04 at 01:48 PM
Jeffrey Gross said...
@Jthom17,
Thanks for the heads up. I did not realize that. Will edit accordingly later
Posted 02/04 at 02:23 PM
Jon said...
As far as jay bruce goes do you ever see an high avg coming or his he going to be a young adam dunn in the making?
And as far as your career projections for hosmer dont you think its odd that his hr total doesnt go up even slightly with age? Also if your going off projections from performance so far that would almost put heyward off the list with his 255 career avg and 32 hrs in 1077 abs
Posted 02/04 at 11:25 PM
Josh Shepardson said...
@ Jeffrey
Be careful with that Bumgarner chart. I’m of the belief the huge leap in slider usage is a case of mis-classification of his cutter. He described using a cutter in an MiLB article at some point (way to lazy to look it up). FanGraphs has his slider velocity jumping 2.5 mph from 2010 to 2011, which furthers my belief some of his cutters are being called sliders. Going over to Brooks Baseball and looking at Bumagarner’s player card helps my argument as well. He was credited with throwing his slider 20% of the time and his cutter 8% of the time in 2011 by Brooks Baseball. Brooks credited him with throwing the slider more often in 2010, at 21% of the time, and zero cutters. Just some food for thought. Loved the article.
Posted 02/07 at 02:46 AM
Jeffrey Gross said...
Thanks for the info Josh! That would totally make me re-evaluate him. Can other non-Giants fans confirm this? I kid, I kid!
Posted 02/07 at 02:52 AM
Josh Shepardson said...
Well played sir, haha.
Posted 02/07 at 02:56 AM
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#21. Challenge Accepted.
Evan Longoria.
That was easy.