Team Corey vs. Team Geoffby Harry Pavlidis
May 05, 2009
When I think of Corey Patterson, I think of high cheese. Corey loves it.
When I think of Geoff Jenkins, I think of golf shots. Geoff seemed to hit them.
Back in the early days of PITCHf/x—you know, 2007—I surprised no one when I found that Corey Patterson was one of the most likely hitters to swing at a high fastball. No eyebrows were raised when I found that Geoff Jenkins loves to go after low pitches. While wading around in the 2009 data, I decided to put together two teams in honor of each. Adding two more in dishonor of each also seemed appropriate.
Building the teams
This is simple:find the hitters with the most extreme swing rates on low or high pitches. Using 2009 data* I identified the hitter at each position** who best or worst exemplified Corey or Geoff.
*minimum of 30 low or high pitches seen
**I took some mild liberties with playing time
Using the average strike zone limits provided over the last few years by PITCHf/x for each hitter, I defined a low pitch as any that crossed the front plane of home plate below the bottom of the hitter's zone. I was a little more liberal with the high pitch range, including not only pitches above the hitter's zone, but those within the top quarter. The criteria for inclusion was swing rate—be the highest or lowest at your position and you've made a team. No DH, no pitchers.
You've probably seen several combination of PITCHf/x and run values here at Hardball Times and elsewhere. I'm on the bandwagon. I'm using them here to measure performance on pitches in the criteria zones and, for comparison, overall. Roughly speaking, the idea is which is better, a team of high- or low-ball swingers? and How do they compare to teams made up of guys who are their opposites? Team Corey, Team Geoff, the Anti-Corey and the Anti-Geoff.
|Team Geoff||Low||Swing %||rv100||All||rv100|
Most of the low-ball guys are performing about as well on the low pitches as they are overall. They should be higher on the pitches out of the zone, since every count yields a positive value when the pitcher throws a ball. Although that will really only benefit the Anti-Jenkins. The two glaring exceptions are Guillen and, to a lesser extent, Hoffpauir. Guillen and Ankiel are stinking it up. As a group, the team's rv100 for the season is less than eight, which is not bad, and is good enough for second place in this contest. These guys like the low stuff, and it would be a good idea not to give it to them.
The hitters who dislike the low-ball comprise the weakest line-up of the four. The biggest drags don't have the highest pitch totals, but they provide enough combined weight, with no counter-balance, to bring the team a full three runs down from their opposites.
They've been wise to lay-off the low stuff, because they're apparently not doing much of anything elsewhere. A low pitch is probably a mistake with these guys. They'll just take it for a ball, but some of them probably won't do anything with strikes, either.
|Team Corey||High||Swing %||rv100||All||rv100|
OK, hang on, there's enough Molina to go around, but Team Corey and Team Geoff have both claimed Bengie. Swings. At. Everything. And hits the snot out of it, too.
This is the best group of the lot, and their two rv100s are the closest together. The high-ball swingers are all doing well, with the exception of Hamilton and Green. Hamilton and Hairston are not doing well by swinging at the high pitches. In Hairston's case, he should cut it out.
Marco Scutaro has a callus on his shoulder where his bat sits. This group is saved by the Anti-Geoffs, but they have the lowest rv100 in their criteria zone. The guys who swing at those top of the zone and higher pitches three-times as often are outperforming them (slightly) on those pitches. Overall, the difference is three runs, so we're looking at two very different groups of hitters to begin with.
Defense? What about low- and high-ball pitchers? And bigger samples? And consistent criteria? And benches? This was a "lite" survey, and may actually raise some interesting questions for further analysis. Taking the run value distributions that Jon Hale and Max Marchi have been showing us and finding hitters that take optimal advantage of it—and those who defy it.
References and Resources
PITCHf/x data and strike zone inputs from Major League Baseball Advanced Media; Run Value inputs from Baseball Analysts
Harry Pavlidis admits he has a baseball problem. He is the founder of Pitch Info LLC, His pitch classifications power the player cards at Brooksbaseball.net. Feedback, questions and comments are appreciated - Email email@example.com and Twitter @harrypav