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The great strikeout debate (Part II)by Paul SingmanJune 17, 2009 Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past three years. He is currently a student at UPenn welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below. Comments
Jacob said...
Isn’t your interpretation completely backwards? True K% appears to be overrating pitchers with low (lucky) BABIP, and underrating those with high (unlucky) BABIPs. Nolasco, for instance, has been popping up on a lot of buy-low lists for the past few months, on the assumption that his BABIP will regress towards the league average. Posted 06/17 at 02:27 PM
Paul Singman said...
Jacob, True K is not overrating pitchers with low BABIPs and underrating pitchers with higher BABIPs; K/9 is overrating the pitchers the with high BABIPs and underrating those with lower BABIPs. True K% is correctly ranking the second group of pitchers lower. This should make sense since a higher BABIP = less outs, which means the denominator of the K/9 equation is less (less outs, less IP). A lower denominator means the overall value fraction will be higher, therefore True K is correct in ranking these pitchers lower. When I get the numbers sorted out and have them organized for the last few seasons we will be able to look at specific pitchers and I think it will become more clear. Posted 06/17 at 04:30 PM
Jacob said...
Are we looking at this as an indicator of past success? I think we would agree that the pitchers with the high BABIPs did not have a lot of success, and thus, K/9 overrates that success. However, we would EXPECT True K% to rise to match K/9, rather than the other way around, as their BABIP and thus their BIP regress to typical values, while their strikeout rates remain the same. Thus K/9 seems more accurate as an indicator of future quality—we expect K/9 to raise constant, while True K% rises and falls with BABIP. Posted 06/19 at 06:09 PM
Paul Singman said...
Hmmm, Jacob you might be correct. I need a little more time to think about it which I don’t have right now. I did create True K% as a better way to determine which pitchers truly were the better the strikeout pitchers based on their past performance, not expected future output. If that is true, though, then True K% would have little fantasy relevance but might be useful to someone trying to historically compare pitchers strikeout rates. Nice catch. Posted 06/19 at 06:42 PM
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These were 2 GREAT and informative articles!!!