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The re-emergence of Troy Tulowitzkiby Paul SingmanNovember 10, 2009 Paul has been managing fantasy baseball teams for many seasons and writing for THT Fantasy over the past three years. He is currently a student at UPenn welcomes readers' thoughts at his email here or in the comments below. Comments
Derek Ambrosino said...
Good subject, Paul. Tulo has caused me a bit of angst. I invested in him heavily in 2008 and got burnt. I was able to land him for a song after an owner had given up on him earlier in the year. The fact that he hit like .180 in April and was coming off a disappointing campaign bottomed out him value giving him huge ROI-potential for somebody wanting to risk trading for him. I’ve been questioning myself a bit as to whether I should consider keeping him over Nick Markakis in one of my leagues. I don’t think I’m going to do it though, and your piece isn’t convincing me to. Overall, I agree that he’ll be one of those guys who will have to fire on all cylinders to justify where he gets selected in a number of drafts. This often happens with MIs, in my opinion at least. For years, Derek Jeter was ranked along the lines of what he could do vs. what was actually expected of him. Frankly, ditto for J-Roll. And, while we’re at it, ditto for Furcal during his heyday. Posted 11/10 at 11:58 AM
Peter said...
I think it’s pretty reasonable to project/expect a line of: .290 27 100 100 15 He has an upside of 300+ 32 110 110 20 What I really like about Tulo is that he is now the COL #4 hitter fulltime, with a great OBP guy in front of him. Barring injury he should be a lock for 100/100, and coming from a SS, that’s awesome. A 2nd round pick this year IMO. Posted 11/10 at 04:24 PM
Paul Singman said...
Peter, I agree that your line for Tulo of .290, 27, 100, 100, 15 is reasonable, except I would knock the steals down to around 8. From a shortstop that production is still fantastic, though the second round is a huge investment and Tulowitzki would have to play as Derek said, “fired on all cylinders” to justify the pick. See if you can wait till the third round to snag him and take a safer player instead, like Markakis for example, in the second. Even though the two will put up similar numbers, Markakis is clearly the safer pick. Unless MI is unusually scarce in your league, Tulo in the second round is somewhat of a reach. Posted 11/10 at 11:29 PM
R M said...
Derek, are you saying you would keep Markakis over Tulow? Markakis in his best year has not been better than Tulow’s conservative projection for next year, and Tulowitzki is a shortstop. How could that even be a contest? Posted 11/11 at 01:35 AM
bk said...
Arguments can be made for both players. I think Markakis has a safer floor than Tulo, as he seems a pretty safe bet health-wise. Tulo, does however have a higher ceiling (at least to me). Like Markakis, you can expect pretty much similar production across the 5 categories, but with more hrs and less sb. Which, assuming he is healthy, grades him higher even if he produces a bit less than Markakis b/c of position differences. However, he seems to be more injury prone. If you’re making a run for a championship in a league you need to be able to balance players who are more volatile in production (especially if there are some really good owners) to separate you from the pack, with guys who will be healthy and offer “safe” production (Tulo can outproduce Markakis during the regular season but if he’s out during your playoff run then it doesn’t matter does it?) Posted 11/11 at 04:43 AM
Peter said...
I like Markakis as much as the next guy, but how can you really rank him as a top 10 OF at this point? He sorta is what he is at this point, which is very good in real life, but frankly average in fantasy baseball. Kakes can’t really have a projection much north of 300 20 100 100 10. He has a floor of 290 15 95 100 5, which isn’t bad, but is hardly worth a top 3 round pick. He has the ‘potential’ to hit 25+ HR, but frankly hasn’t done it yet, and the SB’s have dropped for 2 straight years. His regressing walk rate scares me some as well. Tulo is just the better fantasy player across the board at this point.. and this is coming from a die-hard O’s fan. Love me some Kakes but he is likely the #3 fantasy player on the O’s behind Roberts and AJones, who at least flashed elite talent in the first half. Posted 11/11 at 02:25 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
And, three years ago, you might have told me Brittany Spears or Lindsay Lohan is a keeper over Halle Berry… I need track record at the top of a draft, especially if we aren’t talking keeper. Adam Jones as a top round pick is nice to think about, but for every Ryan Braun there are at three Russel Martins (this is not a formula, just a rhetorical point). Coming off of last year’s season, I might be able to get Carlos Beltran for the price some will want me to pay for Adam Jones. I’ll tell you this, I’d make sure I took a good look at B.J. Upton’s BBR page before taking the plunge on Jones. As easy as you could tell me Markakis never outproduced Tulo’s most recent season, I can tell you that Markakis has never missed significant time and that he’s never put up anything like the .260/.330/.400 stinker that was Tulo’s 2008. (I know, there were injuries involved) Also, depending on how your league is set up, I don’t think OF is as deep as many assume it to be. Markakis’s last season is a bit offputting. But, after 2008, he looked as if he was on his way to breaking out as a truly elite hitter. Was last year a blip on the radar or a signal to temper long term expectations; that’s the big question that’s worth looking into. IMO, it’s likely Markakis outproduces his 2009 in 2010. It’s also somewhat likely Tulo regresses. That’s important to keep in mind. If I felt I could comfortably pencil in Markakis for 12 - 18 steals, I wouldn’t think twice. As of now, I’m still leaning toward Markakis. Posted 11/11 at 03:03 PM
Peter said...
I agree there is more track record with Kakes at this point, but Tulo’s track record isn’t exactly poor. His rookie season in 2007 was one of the best rookie seasons we’ve seen from a SS, his 2008 was a clunker, but some obvious injuries were at play there too. He came back at the end of 2008 and put up great numbers, with post break #‘s of .327 with an OPS of .850. Those post injury #‘s led me to go after Tulo very hard in 2009 (same thing with Vmart). I owned both Kakes and Tulo in my main league this year and its a 5 player keeper league. I’ve gotta say, I’m not even considering Kakes in my top 5 keepers for next year. Tulo was a no-brainer IMO. I see Markakis as a solid 5th round pick (really what is much different about kakes and abreu/choo/hunter/etc), and Tulo a late 2nd rounder. Posted 11/11 at 03:46 PM
Paul Singman said...
I’m actually kind of on the fence for this one and I think who the right choice is depends almost entirely on league setup. If it is a 12-14 man league with only one SS spot and maybe an MI spot, then Tulo’s extra value derived from playing shortstop becomes minimal. On the flip side, if MI’s are scrambled over in your league, then Tulo would probably make the better choice… It also depends on whether your league has 3,4, or 5 OF spots. You can make the case for either one, though I think the consensus is that “Kakes” presents the safer pick while Tulo provides more upside with slightly more risk attached. Posted 11/11 at 06:52 PM
Derek Ambrosino said...
In my main league, I only keep three, and I’m leaning toward Markakis over Tulo. But, really, we may not be as far off you think, we’re just off at both ends. I see Tulo about 10 spots behind where you do, and Markakis about 10 spots. Because of Tulo’s upside and his more sordid history, I see a greater range of reasonable draft position. Just guesstimating, I’d assume Tulo is probably defensible anywhere from 25-50, and Markakis maybe from 30-45. It certainly not unreasonable to say that Tulo is worthy of being picked at this first point one might consider Brandon Phillips. But, then again, I’ve been doubtful that Phillips deserved his rankings the past few years too. His breakout was great, but then he was ranked so high that he would have had to replicate it to produce value. Then, he underperformed it pretty substantially and it wasn’t much adjusted at all the following year. I’d feel much better about Tulo that high if I didn’t think it was basically even money that his steal total drops by more than half. Posted 11/11 at 07:01 PM
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He was one of the guys I was able to target during the 08 season. I try to find guys like this, so I traded Nathan, Moustakas, and Sheets for Tulo, Ryan Zim, and Bonofacio.
A good player to look at for 2010 is Soto. I traded for him and Jordan Zim mid-season for Bedard. I think he is a strong bounce back candidate too.