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May 21, 2013
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The Verdict: don’t mock the mock draft (part 2)by Michael SteinFebruary 20, 2013 The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment. Comments
chuck said...
how is it a REAL mock draft if you take players you would not normally take? i dont understand the reason and you totally make the mock draft invalid if you just take random players. while they may be decent players, youre just screwing up things for someone who is actually taking the draft seriously. Posted 02/20 at 11:29 AM
DrBGiantsfan said...
@Chuck, I don’t think it’s fair to say he’s taking random players. He’s testing a theory of how to construct a fantasy team to see what he ends up with. That is a valid use of a mock draft. I’d much rather he do that than what most people do which is grab 2 or 3 big name players then split and put it on autodraft. Posted 02/20 at 11:51 AM
DrBGiantsfan said...
....er that should be testing a hypothesis rather than theory. Posted 02/20 at 02:08 PM
obsessivegiantscompulsive said...
@chuck, He specifically selected Tulo and Hamilton because of their injury history, so that is hardly random. Also, he’s just giving you one example. His point is that if you draft differently in the mocks than you always do in drafts, you get to see how things play out differently. Maybe your strategy isn’t the best for the group of players available this year. And he’s not saying that you can’t draft like you normally do, he’s saying that you should mix it up, see which strategy works for you. If the other people in the MOCK draft is taking it seriously, then this behavior is actually GOOD for them. In a draft, unless you know all the other GMs well enough to draft for them, there will always be someone who makes that wild left turn of a pick that happens to ruin your plans. You need to learn how to bounce off that in real time and adjust on the run. Doing the mock helps with that. And that is his point: “But every draft is different and you have to be prepared to go to Plan B before the clock runs out. “ I did as DrB noted when I was in a real draft and when it was my turn, all the big hitters I had on my draft list was gone (I was last in a snake draft), so I went for Johan (this was a while back when he was still good) and Lincecum, then added a number of other good pitchers to build a stellar staff. I didn’t win (it was a keeper league, so I was focusing more on the future with my picks, for example, I picked up Nelson Cruz before he became a regular) but did well with my team and I thought I had it set up nicely for the future (but it died after a season and a part, basically…). I’ve never actually done a mock before, but I believe in the power of trying out your draft ideas ahead of time (my first real draft, I ended up with almost every starter on my favorite team, even though I knew the team was mediocre; lesson learned!), just didn’t know whether there was a place that did mocks for free or not. Posted 02/20 at 05:27 PM
Chad said...
As long as he is following a somewhat sensible strategy it will be one that the other participants could possibly be facing when they do a real draft. He took picks that are out of character for himself but not that would be outlandish picks at that spot. If you are just throwing out really outlandish picks or going with a truly bizarre strategy then it definitely throws things off but that wasn’t the case. Posted 02/21 at 12:28 PM
Rusty said...
At the turn, I would have taken Bautisa and Beltre. Both are studs and (assuming Joey Batts is ok) are durable. Tulo and Hamilton are very high risk picks given their injury histories at the end of round one. Posted 02/21 at 02:17 PM
Michael A. Stein said...
When doing mock drafts, they should all be taken seriously by everyone participating. If you do not intend to take them seriously, then you are doing a disservice to everyone else and wasting your own time. My point was that I normally do not take riak-averse players, especially early in a draft. But given what was left for me at #12 and 13, I decided to take a different approach then I normally do. By doing this, I could gauge a new strategy and see how it played out. Then I would have this knowledge to consider in a real draft and think about it more so than I normally would have. The idea in doing mock drafts is not to screw someone else. It is to see what trends are developing and also practice thinking on your feet in the event things do not pan out the way you anticipate. If presented with this scenario in a real draft, I would have to deviate from my plans since my top 11 choices were off the board. Posted 02/22 at 02:26 PM
Kevin Wilson said...
Unless you are mocking with your actual leaguemates, mocks are worthless IMO. You aren’t drafting in a vacuum, so however something plays out for you in one draft does not even remotely carry over to any other draft you might partake in. One wrinkle changes everything. There is nothing to learn, other than the software of the league if you are new. Posted 02/23 at 09:05 PM
Jason B said...
Rusty: “At the turn, I would have taken Bautista and Beltre.” Bautista was already off the board. That 12/13 pick combo is a tough one IMO; if you really want a 2nd-3rd round talent (ADP 15-30) then you may have to stretch and take them comparatively early, because it’s a loooong wait until pick 36 rolls back around. For example, if you don’t take one of the super aces at the end of the first (part of the Kershaw-Verlander-Strasburg triumvirate) you know you won’t get one at all, because they’ll all be gone at #36. Posted 02/27 at 05:10 PM
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As far as testing theories in mock drafts, aren’t you really preparing for next year’s draft? You won’t get to see whether your theory plays out positively or negatively before your real draft this year.
I’m just wondering if, instead of picking over the scraps of what’s left of the hitters by pick #12, you might be better off cutting against the grain and taking an ace pitcher or two at that point? Coming out of the turn with 2 out of Verlander, Kershaw or Strasburg would be a heckuva throwdown on the pitching side of the ledger.